5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Jun 2008  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 06/08/2008   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 29 and 30 in the Explanatory Notes.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:

1 The July 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the June 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.4%.

2 The July 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the June 2008 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.4%.

The percentage change of 2.4% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 2.4%.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.4% on this month
(2) falls by 2.4% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change
December 2007
65 203
-0.1
65 201
-0.1
65 201
-0.1
January 2008
64 151
-1.6
64 193
-1.5
64 240
-1.5
February 2008
62 068
-3.2
62 117
-3.2
62 199
-3.2
March 2008
59 319
-4.4
59 332
-4.5
59 373
-4.5
April 2008
56 381
-5.0
56 376
-5.0
56 268
-5.2
May 2008
53 615
-4.9
53 735
-4.7
53 377
-5.1
June 2008
51 218
-4.5
51 557
-4.1
50 883
-4.7