LABOUR FORCE COMMENTARY OCTOBER 2013


NATIONAL ESTIMATES

Australia's unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.7% in October 2013 (seasonally adjusted) when calculated using unrounded estimates, while in trend terms the unemployment rate increased by less than 0.1 percentage points to 5.8%. The number of unemployed persons increased by 9,100 to 709,300 in October 2013 (seasonally adjusted), while in trend terms the number of unemployed persons in October 2013 rose by 1,100 to 710,000.

October 2013 saw the seasonally adjusted participation rate remain steady at 64.8%, following a revision to the September estimate. The trend participation rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 64.8% in October 2013.

The seasonally adjusted number of employed persons increased by 1,100 in October 2013 to 11,639,200 persons. In trend terms, employment decreased by 4,200 persons to 11,636,600 persons in October 2013. The employment to population ratio, which expresses the number of employed persons as a percentage of the civilian population aged 15 years and over, decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.1% (seasonally adjusted). The trend employment to population ratio also decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.1%.

Seasonally adjusted full-time employment fell in October 2013, down 27,900 persons to 8,094,700 persons, while part-time employment increased by 28,900 persons to 3,544,500 persons. The increase in total employment resulted from:

• an increase in male part-time employment, up 27,500 persons
• an increase in female part-time employment, up 1,500 persons
• a decrease in male full-time employment, down 26,600 persons
• a decrease in female full-time employment, down 1,200 persons.

Seasonally adjusted aggregate hours increased by 6.2 million hours (0.4%) in October 2013 to 1,648.5 million hours.


STATE ESTIMATES

The largest absolute increases in seasonally adjusted employment were in Victoria (up 14,200 persons) and Western Australia (up 6,600 persons). The largest absolute decrease in employment was in South Australia, down 5,900 persons (seasonally adjusted). Seasonally adjusted estimates are not published for the territories.

Unemployment rate, State and Territories - September 2013 and October 2013
	Trend		Seasonally Adjusted
	September	October	September	October
	%	%	%	%
New South Wales	5.8	5.8	5.6	5.9
Victoria	5.8	5.8	5.8	5.9
Queensland	5.9	5.9	5.9	5.9
South Australia	6.6	6.6	6.0	6.6
Western Australia	4.6	4.5	4.6	4.3
Tasmania	8.3	8.2	8.2	7.9
Northern Territory	5.3	5.3	np	np
Australian Capital Territory	4.2	4.4	np	np
Australia	5.7	5.8	5.7	5.7
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated

ABOUT THE DATA

Impact of New South Wales bushfires

A small number of dwellings selected in the Labour Force Survey were in areas affected by the New South Wales bushfires and were unable to be enumerated for the month of October. The weighting and estimation methods used in the Labour Force Survey compensate for sample loss by weighting collected survey responses up to the population benchmarks, and applying composite estimation to produce the current month's estimates. The impact of the small loss in survey sample cannot be estimated but is expected to have had a minimal impact on October estimates for New South Wales.


Change to holiday corrections for aggregate hours worked

The seasonally adjusted aggregate hours worked series include corrections for the influence of public and school holiday effects. Commencing this year, the Labour Day public holiday observed in Queensland was moved from May to October. Similarly, this year there was a change to the timing of school holidays in Tasmania. The holiday corrections have been updated to account for the changed timing of these holidays. This has had a minor impact on the Australia aggregate hours worked series. These corrections have led to minor revisions to the recent estimates for aggregate hours worked in Queensland, Tasmania and Australia. The corrections applied will be updated in future years as more data points become available and the effect of these holidays on the aggregate hours worked series can be more accurately estimated.