5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Jun 2007  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/08/2007   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 29 and 30 in the Explanatory Notes.


The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:


1 The July 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the June 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.5%.


2 The July 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the June 2007 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.5%.


The percentage change of 2.5% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 2.5%.


Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: Sensitivity Analysis


What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.5% on this month
(2) falls by 2.5% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change
December 2006
63 202
-
63 202
-
63 202
-
January 2007
63 523
0.5
63 471
0.4
63 533
0.5
February 2007
64 081
0.9
64 002
0.8
64 111
0.9
March 2007
64 735
1.0
64 701
1.1
64 755
1.0
April 2007
65 396
1.0
65 476
1.2
65 333
0.9
May 2007
66 012
0.9
66 258
1.2
65 783
0.7
June 2007
66 531
0.8
66 989
1.1
66 094
0.5
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)