TECHNICAL NOTE OLD BASIS ESTIMATES
OLD BASIS ESTIMATES
1 Prior to running the 2005-06 Agricultural Census, the ABS had maintained its own register of agricultural establishments. However, it was increasingly difficult to maintain this list, and users were questioning the accuracy of some commodity data.
2 The ABS investigated a number of alternatives for maintaining an agricultural business register and discussed these with key users of agriculture statistics. As a result of this, it was agreed that the ABS should move to a new frame sourced from the Australian Taxation Office's Australian Business Register (ABR) for the 2005-06 Agricultural Census.
3 The ABR-based register consists of all businesses on the ABR coded to an ‘agricultural’ industry, as well as businesses which have indicated they undertake agricultural activities. All businesses with a turnover of $50,000 or more are required to register on the ABR. Many agricultural businesses with a turnover of less than $50,000 have also chosen to register on the ABR.
4 Moving to the ABR-based register required changes to many of the methodologies used for compiling agriculture statistics. These included changes to the methods used for determining whether agricultural businesses were 'in-scope' of the collection, and also to ways the data were compiled (please see paragraphs 6-9 of the Explanatory Notes for more information about the changes in scope and coverage).
IMPLICATIONS FOR USERS
5 The key implication of the move to the new register is that the Census data will not be directly comparable with the historical time series of agriculture data. To provide users with a way of comparing ('bridging') the 2005-06 Agricultural Census data with the historical time series, the ABS has prepared two sets of estimates (see paragraph 12).
6 'New-basis' estimates have been prepared for 2005-06 using the new ABR-based register and its associated statistical methodologies. These methodologies have been subjected to rigorous analysis and testing, with the resulting 'new basis' estimates representing the start of the new commodity and livestock series.
7 'Old-basis' estimates have also been prepared for 2005-06. These estimates are a best judgement approximation to what the 2005-06 estimates may have been if the ABS had continued to use the previous ABS-maintained list of establishments (with its associated statistical methodologies) to conduct the 2005-06 Agricultural Census.
BRIDGING METHODOLOGY
8 The need for a bridging strategy for the Agriculture Census was outlined in Information Paper: Agriculture Census: ABS Views on Content & Procedures, 2005-06 (cat. no. 7103.0) and was discussed extensively with key users in March 2006.
9 Key considerations of the bridging strategy have included:
a) known movements between 2004-05 and 2005-06 for those units common to both the old and new frame;
b) the contribution to 'old-basis' estimates of those units common to both the old and new frame; and
c) the contribution to 'old-basis' estimates of uncommon units (i.e. those old frame units which were out-of-scope of the new business register or old frame units which the ABS was not able to link to corresponding units on the new frame).
INTERPRETING THE BRIDGED DATA
10 Users should recognise the preliminary nature of both sets of 2005-06 estimates. They should also exercise a degree of caution in interpreting the tables as both the 'old-basis' and the 'new-basis' estimates are subject to sampling and non-sampling variability.
11 The non-sampling variability in the 'old-basis' 2005-06 estimates in particular, is expected to be significant due to difficulties in collecting, processing and estimating 'old basis' data from a 'new basis' framework. For this reason, the 2005-06 'old-basis' estimates should be used with considerable caution and movements between 2004-05 and 2005-06 considered as indicative only.
12 The following tables allow users to compare 2005 and 2006 estimates subject to the caveats mentioned.
Production and area of principal crops(a) - Year ended 30 June |
|
 | Aust. Old Basis(b) | 2006 New Basis(c) |
| 2005 | 2006(d) | Aust. |
BARLEY FOR GRAIN |
|
| Production ('000 t) | 7 740 | 9 480 | 9 563 |
| Area ('000 ha) | 4 646 | 4 408 | 4 447 |
CANOLA |
|
| Production ('000 t) | 1 542 | 1 370 | 1 436 |
| Area ('000 ha) | 1 377 | 934 | 979 |
COTTON LINT |
|
| Production ('000 t) | 563 | 550 | 576 |
| Area ('000 ha) | 304 | 318 | 333 |
GRAIN SORGHUM |
|
| Production ('000 t) | 2 011 | 1 980 | 1 973 |
| Area ('000 ha) | 755 | 772 | 769 |
LUPINS FOR GRAIN |
|
| Production ('000 t) | 937 | 1 290 | 1 328 |
| Area ('000 ha) | 845 | 809 | 832 |
OATS FOR GRAIN |
|
| Production ('000 t) | 1 283 | 1 700 | 1 695 |
| Area ('000 ha) | 894 | 939 | 936 |
RICE FOR GRAIN |
|
| Production ('000 t) | 339 | 960 | 973 |
| Area ('000 ha) | 51 | 98 | 99 |
SUGAR CANE CUT FOR CRUSHING |
|
| Production ('000 t) | 37 822 | 37 900 | 38 224 |
| Area ('000 ha) | 434 | 403 | 407 |
WHEAT FOR GRAIN |
|
| Production ('000 t) | 21 905 | 24 950 | 25 367 |
| Area ('000 ha) | 13 399 | 12 337 | 12 543 |
|
| (a) Estimates for 2005 are final; estimates for 2006 are preliminary and may be subject to revision. Caution should be exercised in comparing 2005 and 2006 estimates. |
| (b) Used an ABS-maintained land-based frame (list of 'farms'). |
| (c) Used the Australian Business Register-based frame (list of agricultural businesses). |
| (d) Data for 2006 old basis are initial bridged estimates and subject to revision. Caution should be exercised in comparing 2005 and 2006 estimates. |
Livestock numbers(a) - Year ended 30 June |
|
| Aust. Old Basis(b) | 2006 New Basis(c) |
| 2005 | 2006(d) | Aust. |
Milk cattle(e) |
|
| Cows in milk and dry ('000) | 2 076 | 1 865 | 1 870 |
| Other milk cattle ('000) | 981 | 905 | 908 |
| Total milk cattle ('000) | (f)3 056 | 2 770 | 2 778 |
Meat cattle |
|
| Bulls and bull calves intended for service ('000) | 659 | 687 | 706 |
| Other calves under one year ('000) | 5 357 | 5 571 | 5 728 |
| Cows and heifers one year and over ('000) | 12 935 | 12 899 | 13 261 |
| Other cattle one year and over ('000) | 5 776 | 5 843 | 6 007 |
| Total meat cattle ('000) | 24 725 | 25 000 | 25 702 |
Sheep and lambs |
|
| Sheep ('000) | 71 947 | 66 655 | 66 928 |
| Lambs under one year ('000) | 29 178 | 24 845 | 24 946 |
| Total sheep and lambs ('000) | 101 125 | 91 500 | 91 875 |
Lambing |
|
| Ewes mated to produce lambs ('000) | 46 147 | 42 803 | 42 978 |
| Lambs marked ('000) | 37 223 | 35 117 | 35 261 |
| Proportion of lambs marked to ewes mated (%) | 81 | 82 | 82 |
| Ewes expected to lamb next year ('000)(g) | 46 904 | 47 292 | 47 486 |
Pigs |
|
| Boars ('000) | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Breeding sows ('000) | 286 | 286 | 302 |
| Gilts intended for breeding ('000) | 43 | 47 | 50 |
| All other pigs ('000) | 2 197 | 2 215 | 2 338 |
| Total pigs ('000) | 2 538 | 2 560 | 2 702 |
|
| (a) Estimates for 2005 are final; estimates for 2006 are preliminary and may be subject to revision. Caution should be exercised in comparing 2005 and 2006 estimates. |
| (b) Used an ABS-maintained land-based frame (list of 'farms'). |
| (c) Used the Australian Business Register-based frame (list of agricultural businesses). |
| (d) Data for 2006 old basis are initial bridged estimates and subject to revision. Caution should be exercised in comparing 2005 and 2006 estimates. |
| (e) Excluding house cows. |
| (f) See Explanatory Notes, paragraph 13. |
| (g) Forecast made at the beginning of each season. |
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