ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,642m in November 2011, a fall of $165m on the surplus in October 2011.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,380m in November 2011, a fall of $38m on the surplus in October 2011.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between October 2011 and November 2011 the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $45m to $27,413m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $58m to $27,247m. Non-monetary gold rose $358m (32%) and rural goods rose $32m (1%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained at -$6m. Non-rural goods fell $239m (1%). Services credits fell $93m (2%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $39m (1%) to $3,078m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $32m (1%) to $3,093m.

The only component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $123m (16%).

Partly offsetting this rise were:

• wool and sheepskins, down $39m (14%)
• other rural, down $29m (2%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $52m to $19,094m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $239m (1%) to $18,814m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was metal ores and minerals, down $349m (4%).

Partly offsetting this fall was the metals (excl. non-monetary gold) component, up $106m (10%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section below.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (20%) to -$6m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained at -$6m.


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $3m to $1,352m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $358m (32%) to $1,464m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits fell $41m (1%) to $3,896m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $93m (2%) to $3,882m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, down $64m (3%)
• transport, down $24m (4%), with passenger transport down $21m (8%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $85m (3%) to $2,433m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between October 2011 and November 2011 the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $210m (1%) to $25,771m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $96m to $25,867m. Capital goods rose $305m (6%). Non-monetary gold fell $214m (24%), intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $19m and consumption goods fell $16m. Services debits rose $41m (1%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $1m to $5,408m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $16m to $5,391m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, down $133m (10%).

Partly offsetting this fall was the consumption goods n.e.s. component, up $120m (7%).


CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $143m (3%) to $5,520m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $305m (6%) to $5,669m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $576m after falling $320m (48%) between September and October 2011.

Partly offsetting this rise was the telecommunications equipment component, down $196m (24%).


INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $2m to $9,023m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $19m to $9,068m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other merchandise goods, down $149m (64%)
• fuels and lubricants, down $107m (3%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $158m (8%)
• organic and inorganic chemicals, up $84m (24%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $53m (7%) to $764m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, non-monetary gold fell $214m (24%) to $683m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $12m to $5,057m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $41m (1%) to $5,056m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $30m (1%)
• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., up $13m (65%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $26m (1%) to $2,780m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Unit value and volume analysis: Recorded Trade Basis(a)
		Change in
		Jun 2011	Jul 2011	Aug 2011	Sep 2011	Oct 2011	Nov 2011
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Volumes	-3	-8	19	-3	-	-4
	Unit value	-	-5	3	3	-3	-16
Fines
	Volumes	-2	9	6	-2	4	-6
	Unit value	-	-4	2	4	-2	-19
Coal
Hard coking
	Volumes	4	-7	22	-7	-2	-4
	Unit value	-1	-1	-	-	-	-1
Semi-soft
	Volumes	36	-29	23	12	-8	7
	Unit value	-3	-2	-1	-4	6	-
Bituminous (Thermal)
	Volumes	19	-2	3	-6	5	-7
	Unit value	4	1	4	-	5	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Data in this table are on a revised merchandise trade basis and exclude adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

On a recorded trade basis (noting the footnote in the above table), between October and November 2011, large value movements were recorded for the following selected commodities:

• Iron ore lump fell $314m (20%) with volumes down 4% and prices down 16%. Exports to China fell $216m (22%), with volumes down 2% and prices down 20% and exports to Taiwan fell $71m (67%) with volumes down 61% and prices down 14%.
• Iron ore fines fell $1,110m (24%) with volumes down 6% and prices down 19%. Exports to China fell $967m (28%), with volumes down 7% and prices down 23% and exports to Republic of Korea fell $69m (13%), with volumes down 3% and prices down 11%.
• Hard coking coal fell $99m (5%) with volumes down 4% and prices down 1%. Exports to Japan fell $158m (27%), with volumes down 25% and prices down 3%.
• Semi-soft coal rose $58m (7%), driven by volumes up 7%. Exports to Republic of Korea rose $93m, driven by volumes.
• Bituminous (thermal) coal fell $114m (7%), driven by volumes down 7%. Exports to Republic of Korea fell $45m (15%), with volumes down 9% and prices down 7% and exports to China fell $38m (16%), with volumes down 17% and prices up 2%.