ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,850m in September 2014, an increase of $50m (3%) on the deficit in August 2014.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,261m in September 2014, an increase of $1,248m (123%) on the deficit in August 2014.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to September 2014 was a deficit of $4,518m, a fall of $362m (7%) on the deficit of $4,880m for the three months to June 2014. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary September quarter 2014 deficit was $4,380m, a fall of $245m (5%) on the revised June quarter 2014 deficit of $4,625m.

Revised quarterly estimates will be included in Balance of Payments - Goods and Services, Preliminary Quarterly Estimates (cat. no. 5302.0.55.004) and Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between August and September 2014, the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $31m to $26,140m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $269m (1%) to $26,457m. Non-monetary gold rose $585m (60%), rural goods rose $74m (2%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $2m (25%). Non-rural goods fell $443m (3%). Services credits rose $51m (1%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $2m to $3,266m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $74m (2%) to $3,290m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• meat and meat preparations, up $48m (5%)
• wool and sheepskins, up $18m (7%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $114m (1%) to $16,668m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $443m (3%) to $16,639m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, down $403m (6%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, down $170m (6%).

Partly offsetting these falls were:

• other mineral fuels, up $113m (5%)
• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), up $69m (8%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $9m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $2m (25%) to $10m.


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $66m (6%) to $1,264m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $585m (60%) to $1,555m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $14m to $4,932m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $51m (1%) to $4,962m.

The main components contributing to the rise in services credits were:

• travel, up $35m (1%)
• other services, up $17m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $35m (1%) to $3,208m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between August and September 2014, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $19m to $27,990m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $1,517m (6%) to $28,718m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $974m (11%), consumption goods rose $186m (3%), capital goods rose $178m (3%) and non-monetary gold rose $135m (59%). Services debits rose $43m (1%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $22m to $6,910m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $186m (3%) to $7,014m. The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, up $117m (7%).


CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $23m to $5,193m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $178m (3%) to $5,387m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• machinery and industrial equipment, up $238m (15%)
• ADP equipment, up $90m (13%).

Partly offsetting these rises was civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $134m (15%).


INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $34m to $9,772m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $974m (11%) to $10,102m. The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, up $904m (31%).


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $1m to $294m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $135m (59%) to $365m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $6m to $5,820m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $43m (1%) to $5,849m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $24m (1%)
• transport, up $23m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $29m (1%) to $3,061m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: International merchandise trade basis (a) - Original terms
		Change in
		Apr 2014	May 2014	Jun 2014	Jul 2014	Aug 2014	Sep 2014
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	-4	5	-6	8	1	-
	Unit value	-2	-6	-9	-6	p-2	p6
Fines
	Quantity	5	1	-3	4	3	-2
	Unit value	-5	-9	-10	-	p -	p24
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	7	-8	11	-17	13	2
	Unit value	-10	-3	-3	-	p6	p-1
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-6	5	6	-4	5	3
	Unit value	-7	-3	-2	-3	1	3
Thermal
	Quantity	2	4	-1	13	-	-8
	Unit value	-6	1	-2	-2	-1	2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between August and September 2014 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump rose $87m (7%), with unit values up 6%.
Exports to:

• Japan rose $68m (29%), with quantities up 21% and unit values up 7%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $36m (4%), with quantities down 2% and unit values up 7%.

Partly offsetting these rises was exports to the Republic of Korea, down $23m (26%), with quantities down 27% and unit values up 2%.

Iron ore fines rose $861m (21%), with quantities down 2% and unit values up 24%.
Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $650m (19%), with quantities down 7% and unit values up 28%
• Japan rose $136m (45%), with quantities up 39% and unit values up 4%
• the Republic of Korea rose $56m (18%), with quantities up 9% and unit values up 8%.

Hard coking coal rose $6m, with quantities up 2% and unit values down 1%.
Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $82m (28%), with quantities up 31% and unit values down 2%
• the Republic of Korea rose $37m (63%), with quantities up 62%.

Partly offsetting these rises was exports to Japan, down $94m (37%), with quantities down 34% and unit values down 4%.

Semi-soft coal rose $34m (6%), with quantities up 3% and unit values up 3%.

Exports to the Republic of Korea rose $77m (123%), with quantities up 117% and unit values up 2%.

Partly offsetting this rise was exports to Japan, down $48m (27%), with quantities down 28% and unit values up 1%.

Thermal coal fell $84m (6%), with quantities down 8% and unit values up 2%.
Exports to:

• Japan fell $38m (6%), with quantities down 8% and unit values up 2%
• the Republic of Korea fell $24m (11%), with quantities down 12% and unit values up 1%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $21m (8%), with quantities down 10% and unit values up 1%.