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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 1.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 1.1% on this quarter $m % change $m % change $m % change 2007 December 118 953 1.1 118 951 1.1 118 951 1.1 2008 March 120 345 1.2 120 353 1.2 120 511 1.3 June 121 543 1.0 121 542 1.0 121 488 0.8 September 122 628 0.9 122 628 0.9 121 868 0.3

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.0% on this quarter $m % change $m % change $m % change 2007 December 48 248 2.1 48 248 2.1 48 248 2.1 2008 March 50 300 4.3 50 166 4.0 50 491 4.7 June (a)57 985 (a)na (a)58 012 (a)na (a)57 888 (a)na September 60 544 4.4 60 921 5.0 59 199 2.3 na not available (a) Break in series between March 2008 and June 2008. See paragraph 24 of the Technical Notes for more information.