5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Jul 2015 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 09/09/2015   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 30 and 31 in the Explanatory Notes.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:

1 The August 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the July 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

2 The August 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the July 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

The percentage change chosen is the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: Sensitivity Analysis

What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.1% on this month
(2) falls by 2.1% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change
January 2015
52 765
0.8
52 765
0.8
52 765
0.8
February 2015
53 046
0.5
53 032
0.5
53 073
0.6
March 2015
53 136
0.2
53 108
0.1
53 180
0.2
April 2015
53 074
-0.1
53 058
-0.1
53 094
-0.2
May 2015
52 934
-0.3
52 980
-0.1
52 884
-0.4
June 2015
52 778
-0.3
52 972
0.0
52 658
-0.4
July 2015
52 696
-0.2
53 065
0.2
52 473
-0.4