ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services for November 2008 was a surplus of $2,073m, an increase of $355m (21%) on the revised surplus in October 2008.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in November 2008 was a surplus of $1,448m, a decrease of $1,512m (51%) on the revised surplus in October 2008.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $677m (3%) between October and November to $27,339m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $1,002m (4%) to $26,932m. Non-rural goods fell $787m (4%), other goods fell $190m (11%) and rural goods fell $38m (1%). Services credits rose $13m.


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $55m (2%) to $2,463m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $38m (1%) to $2,505m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• meat and meat preparations, down $50m (7%)
• cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $41m (8%).

Partly offsetting these decreases was the other rural component, up $74m (7%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods fell $125m (5%) to $2,555m.

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $553m (3%) to $18,549m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $787m (4%) to $18,172m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, down $654m (13%)
• transport equipment, down $128m (21%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, down $110m (2%).

Partly offsetting these decreases was the machinery component, up $73m (9%).

In original terms, non-agglomerated iron ore decreased $942m (26%) with volumes down 24% and prices down 3%. Metallurgical coal decreased $410m (9%) with volumes down 15% and prices up 8%.

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $1,830m (9%) to $18,089m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, exports of other goods rose $74m (4%) to $1,720m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, other goods fell $190m (11%) to $1,611m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• non-monetary gold, down $142m (9%)
• goods for processing, down $48m (48%).

In original terms, exports of other goods fell $196m (11%) to $1,613m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits fell $5m to $4,607m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $13m to $4,644m.

Components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other services, up $9m (1%)
• transportation services, up $5m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $2m to $2,819m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $322m (1%) between October and November to $25,266m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $510m (2%) to $25,484m. Other goods rose $728m (67%) and consumption goods rose $124m (2%), while intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $393m (4%). Services debits rose $56m (1%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $46m (1%) to $5,257m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $124m (2%) to $5,370m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• consumption goods n.e.s., up $95m (6%)
• textiles, clothing and footwear, up $36m (5%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the non-industrial transport equipment component, down $31m (2%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods fell $341m (6%) to $5,793m.

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $38m (1%) to $4,412m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $5m to $4,338m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• ADP equipment, down $72m (9%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $39m (6%).

Offsetting these decreases were:

• civil aircraft, up $80m (43%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, up $49m (3%).

In original terms, imports of capital goods fell $58m (1%) to $4,588m.

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $108m (1%) to $9,528m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $393m (4%) to $9,299m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, down $791m (24%).

Partly offsetting this decrease were:

• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $171m (8%)
• other parts for capital goods, up $127m (11%)
• primary industrial supplies n.e.s., up $72m (40%)
• organic and inorganic chemicals, up $51m (10%).

In original terms, crude petroleum decreased $411m (26%) with volumes down 21% and prices down 6%. Refined petroleum oils decreased $447m (27%) with volumes down 21% and prices down 7%. Contributing to the decrease in refined petroleum oils were:

• gasoline, down $463m (73%) with volumes down 69% and prices down 13%
• jet fuel, down $83m (57%) with volumes down 48% and prices down 17%.

Partly offsetting these decreases was diesel, up $115m (17%), with volumes up 22% and prices down 4%.

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $1,082m (11%) to $9,183m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, imports of other goods rose $104m (8%) to $1,446m.

In both original terms and seasonally adjusted terms, other goods debits rose $728m (67%) to $1,813m. The main components contributing to this increase were non-monetary gold, up $565m (67%) and goods for processing, up $156m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $27m (1%) to $4,624m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $56m (1%) to $4,664m.

All components contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates with:

• transportation services, up $36m (2%), driven by freight transportation services, up $31m (3%)
• other services, up $18m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $7m to $2,137m.