ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,718m in September 2011, a rise of $122m on the surplus in August 2011.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,564m in September 2011, a fall of $389m on the surplus in August 2011.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to September 2011 was a surplus of $7,347m, an increase of $995m on the surplus of $6,352m for the three months to June 2011. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the September quarter 2011 surplus was $7,761m, an increase of $1,530m on the revised June quarter 2011 surplus of $6,231m. The main goods components contributing to this quarter-on-quarter result were:

• Goods credits
  • metal ores and minerals, rose $1,833m (8%). In original terms on a recorded trade basis, iron ore and concentrates, rose $1,757m (11%) primarily on volumes
  • coal, coke and briquettes, rose $966m (8%). In original terms on a recorded trade basis, coal, not agglomerated, rose $1,059m (9%) primarily on volumes
  • non-monetary gold, rose $919m (27%). In original terms on a recorded trade basis, non-monetary gold rose $717m (22%) on both volumes and prices.
• Goods debits
  • non-industrial transport equipment, rose $703m (21%). In original terms on a recorded trade basis, passenger motor vehicles, rose $665m (22%)
  • processed industrial supplies n.e.s., rose $551m (10%). In original terms on a recorded trade basis, other processed industrial supplies n.e.s, rose $567m (18%)
  • industrial transport equipment n.e.s., rose $422m (26%). In original terms on a recorded trade basis, motor vehicles for transporting goods, rose $538m (42%).

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between August 2011 and September 2011 the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $234m (1%) to $27,486m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $712m (3%) to $27,325m. Non-monetary gold fell $411m (24%) and non-rural goods fell $295m (2%). Rural goods rose $45m (2%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (25%). Services credits fell $52m (1%).


Exports of goods


RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $46m (2%) to $2,986m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $45m (2%) to $3,012m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $100m (15%).

Partly offsetting this rise was the wool and sheepskins component, down $51m (15%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $184m (1%) to $19,034m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $295m (2%) to $18,986m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other mineral fuels, down $162m (7%)
• metal ores and minerals, down $104m (1%)
• other non-rural, down $80m (8%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (50%) to $3m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (25%) to $5m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $26m (2%) to $1,397m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $411m (24%) to $1,303m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits fell $23m (1%) to $4,066m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $52m (1%) to $4,019m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, down $30m (1%)
• other services, down $12m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $39m (1%) to $2,577m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between August 2011 and September 2011 the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $111m to $24,768m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $323m (1%) to $24,761m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $460m (5%) and consumption goods fell $155m (3%). Capital goods rose $302m (6%) and non-monetary gold rose $39m (7%). Services debits fell $47m (1%).

Preliminary analysis shows that, in seasonally adjusted terms, goods imports volumes rose 3.9% and the implicit price deflator fell 0.7% during the September quarter 2011. In original terms, the Chain Laspeyres price index rose 0.3% and the implicit price deflator fell 0.2%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the September quarter 2011 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $13m to $5,434m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $155m (3%) to $5,370m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• non-industrial transport equipment, down $88m (7%)
• household electrical items, down $65m (15%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $97m (2%) to $4,852m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $302m (6%) to $5,008m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $325m (96%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $49m (1%) to $8,958m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $460m (5%) to $8,868m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, down $374m (12%) after rising $298m (10%) between July and August 2011
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $356m (15%).

Partly offsetting these falls was the other merchandise goods component, up $194m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $33m (6%) to $563m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, non-monetary gold rose $39m (7%) to $588m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $17m to $4,960m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $47m (1%) to $4,928m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transport, down $45m (3%), with freight transport down $35m (5%)
• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., down $10m (28%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $4m to $2,762m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Unit price and volume analysis: Recorded Trade Basis(a)
		Change in
		Apr 2011	May 2011	Jun 2011	Jul 2011	Aug 2011	Sep 2011
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Volumes	-11	8	-3	-8	19	-3
	Price	2	4	-	-5	3	2
Fines
	Volumes	-6	8	-2	9	6	-2
	Price	-	3	-	-3	2	4
Coal
Hard coking
	Volumes	-1	10	4	-7	22	-8
	Price	9	13	-1	-1	-6	4
Semi-soft
	Volumes	-14	-12	36	-29	23	9
	Price	11	13	-3	-2	-4	1
Bituminous (Thermal)
	Volumes	22	-2	19	-2	3	-7
	Price	-5	3	4	1	4	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Data in this table are on a revised merchandise trade basis and have excluded adjustment applied to balance of payments series.

On a recorded trade basis, between August and September 2011, large value movements were recorded for the following selected commodities:

• iron ore, fines rose $84m (2%) with exports to China up $316m (10%), with volumes up 5% and prices up 4% and Taiwan up $16m (18%), driven exclusively by volumes
• bituminous (thermal) coal fell $104m (7%) with exports to Taiwan down $80m (33%), with volumes down 33% and prices down 1% and China down $76m (29%), with volumes down 26% and prices down 4%
• hard coking coal fell $96m (4%) with exports to India down $121m (20%), with volumes down 25% and prices up 7% and Japan down $84m (14%), with volumes down 18% and prices up 4%
• semi-soft coal rose $80m (10%) with exports to China up $110m and Taiwan up $23m (27%), with volumes up 37% and prices down 8%.