5676.0 - Business Indicators, Australia, Mar 2007  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/06/2007   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.


1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.


2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.


Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

Graph: What If - Inventories (chain volume measures)


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 1.1% on this quarter
(2) falls by 1.1% on this quarter
$m
% change
$m
% change
$m
% change
2006
June
105 873
-0.7
105 873
-0.7
105 873
-0.7
September
105 258
-0.6
105 111
-0.7
105 249
-0.6
December
105 296
0.0
105 344
0.2
105 298
0.0
2007
March
105 791
0.5
106 275
0.9
105 615
0.3


Company gross operating profits (Current prices)

Graph: What If - Company gross operating profits (current prices)


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.0% on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.0% on this quarter
$m
% change
$m
% change
$m
% change
2006
June
41 734
2.4
41 734
2.4
41 734
2.4
September
42 749
2.4
42 683
2.3
42 929
2.9
December
43 634
2.1
43 656
2.3
43 570
1.5
2007
March
(a)np
(a)na
(a)np
(a)na
(a)np
(a)na
na not available
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated
(a) Break in series between December 2006 and March 2007. See Changes in this Issue.