LABOUR FORCE COMMENTARY JULY 2015


NATIONAL ESTIMATES

Australia's unemployment rate increased 0.3 percentage points from a revised June estimate to 6.3% in July 2015 (seasonally adjusted) with:

• the number of unemployed persons increasing by 40,100 to 800,700,
• the number of employed persons increasing by 38,500 to 11,810,700, and
• the participation rate increasing 0.3 percentage points to 65.1%.

In trend terms the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1% in July 2015. The number of employed persons in July 2015 increased by 17,800 to 11,797,300 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 3,000 to 772,300 in trend terms. The trend participation rate was unchanged at 64.9% in July 2015.

The employment to population ratio, which expresses the number of employed persons as a percentage of the civilian population aged 15 years and over, increased 0.1 percentage points to 61.0% (seasonally adjusted) in July 2015. In trend terms, the employment to population ratio was unchanged at 60.9%.

Seasonally adjusted full-time employment increased by 12,400 persons to 8,170,400 persons while part-time employment increased by 26,100 to 3,640,300 persons in July 2015. The increase in total employment resulted from:

• an increase in male part-time employment, up 20,400 persons
• an increase in female full-time employment, up 7,900 persons
• an increase in female part-time employment, up 5,700 persons
• an increase in male full-time employment, up 4,500 persons.

Seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased 3.4 million hours (0.2%) in July 2015 to 1,633.2 million hours.


STATE ESTIMATES

The largest absolute increase in seasonally adjusted employment was in New South Wales (up 29,500 persons). The largest absolute decreases in seasonally adjusted employment were in Queensland (down 2,800 persons) and Western Australia (down 1,700 persons).

The largest increases in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate were in Western Australia (up 0.5 pts), Queensland (up 0.4 pts) and Victoria (up 0.4 pts). The largest decline was in South Australia (down 0.2 pts).

The largest increases in the participation rate were in New South Wales (up 0.5 pts) and Victoria (up 0.3 pts). The largest declines were in South Australia and Tasmania, both down 0.1 pts.

Seasonally adjusted estimates are not published for the territories and the ABS recommends using trend estimates to analyse the underlying behaviour of the state series.

Unemployment rate, States and Territories, June 2015 and July 2015
	Trend		Seasonally Adjusted
	June	July	June	July
	%	%	%	%
New South Wales	5.8	5.8	5.8	6.0
Victoria	6.1	6.2	6.0	6.4
Queensland	6.4	6.3	6.1	6.5
South Australia	7.8	7.9	8.1	7.9
Western Australia	5.8	6.0	5.9	6.4
Tasmania	6.8	6.7	6.5	6.6
Northern Territory	4.3	4.2	np	np
Australian Capital Territory	4.3	4.4	np	np
Australia	6.1	6.1	6.1	6.3
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated

GROSS FLOWS

Gross flows (Table 17) highlight the change in labour force status of individuals between last month and this month. Gross flows are derived from the sample that is common between two consecutive months which, after taking account of sample rotation and varying non-response each month, is approximately 80% of the sample. However, the level and movement estimates produced from the gross flows will not necessarily represent 80% of the level and movement estimates in a given month from the whole sample. Despite this limitation, analysis of the gross flows data can provide an indication, in original terms, of underlying movements in the labour market.

In original terms between June and July 2015 the number of persons employed increased by 8,300 with gross flows showing a net decrease of 27,300. The decrease shown in the gross flows comprised:

• 222,400 persons whose status changed from employed to not in the labour force,
• 90,700 persons whose status changed from employed to unemployed,
• 82,900 persons whose status changed from unemployed to employed, and
• 202,900 persons whose status changed from not in the labour force to employed.

In original terms between June and July 2015 the number of persons unemployed increased 41,000 persons with gross flows showing a net increase of 29,800. The increase shown in the gross flows comprised:

• 90,700 persons whose status changed from employed to unemployed,
• 141,100 persons whose status changed from not in the labour force to unemployed,
• 119,100 persons whose status changed from unemployed to not in the labour force, and
• 82,900 persons whose status changed from unemployed to employed.

As the gross flows data are presented in original terms they are not directly comparable to the seasonally adjusted and trend data discussed elsewhere in the commentary.