Analysis and comments

Balance on goods and services

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $7,530m in September 2019, an increase of $169m on the surplus in August 2019.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $7,180m in September 2019, an increase of $563m on the surplus in August 2019.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to September 2019 was a surplus of $21,113m, an increase of $2,521m on the surplus of $18,592m for the three months to June 2019. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary September quarter 2019 surplus was $20,917m, an increase of $1,599m on the June quarter 2019 surplus of $19,318m.

Goods and services summary(a), Seasonally adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Jul 2019	Aug 2019	Sep 2019	Sep 2019	Sep 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally adjusted
Balance on goods and services				7 316	6 617	7 180	563	9
Credits
	Total goods and services			42 633	41 763	43 215	1 452	3
		Total goods		34 182	33 226	34 609	1 383	4
			Rural goods(b)	3 742	3 739	3 979	240	6
			Non-rural goods(b)	27 688	27 337	27 923	586	2
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	15	15	15	-	-
			Non-monetary gold(c)	2 737	2 134	2 692	558	26
		Total services		8 451	8 537	8 606	69	1
Debits
	Total goods and services			-35 317	-35 145	-36 034	889	3
		Total goods		-26 784	-26 429	-27 296	867	3
			Consumption goods	-8 782	-8 697	-8 761	64	1
			Capital goods	-6 200	-6 044	-6 746	702	12
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-11 015	-10 588	-11 062	474	4
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-787	-1 100	-727	-373	-34
		Total services		-8 533	-8 716	-8 738	22	-
Trend(d)
Balance on goods and services				7 097	7 361	7 530	169	2
Credits
	Total goods and services			42 260	42 557	42 777	220	1
		Total goods		33 775	34 022	34 196	174	1
			Rural goods(b)	3 819	3 805	3 802	-3	-
			Non-rural goods(b)	27 780	27 847	27 832	-15	-
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	16	15	14	-1	-7
			Non-monetary gold	2 160	2 356	2 548	192	8
		Total services		8 485	8 535	8 581	46	1
Debits
	Total goods and services			-35 163	-35 196	-35 247	51	-
		Total goods		-26 520	-26 525	-26 548	23	-
			Consumption goods	-8 686	-8 691	-8 710	19	-
			Capital goods	-6 267	-6 187	-6 132	-55	-1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 818	-10 814	-10 805	-9	-
			Non-monetary gold	-749	-834	-900	66	8
		Total services		-8 643	-8 671	-8 699	28	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

Exports of goods and services

Between August and September 2019, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $220m (1%) to $42,777m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $1,452m (3%) to $43,215m. Non-rural goods rose $586m (2%), non-monetary gold rose $558m (26%) and rural goods rose $240m (6%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $15m. Services credits rose $69m (1%).


Exports of goods


Goods credits

Goods credits, Seasonally adjusted
							Change in:
				Jul 2019	Aug 2019	Sep 2019	Sep 2019	Sep 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				34 182	33 226	34 609	1 383	4
	General merchandise			31 430	31 077	31 902	825	3
		Rural goods		3 742	3 739	3 979	240	6
			Meat and meat preparations	1 340	1 385	1 418	33	2
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	410	436	515	79	18
			Wool and sheepskins	302	187	213	26	14
			Other rural(a)	1 690	1 730	1 833	103	6
		Non-rural goods		27 688	27 337	27 923	586	2
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	12 059	11 513	11 831	318	3
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	5 447	5 233	4 931	-302	-6
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	4 625	5 139	5 556	417	8
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	899	1 033	1 179	146	14
			Machinery	968	960	969	9	1
			Transport equipment	450	323	396	73	23
			Other manufactures	2 031	2 054	2 029	-25	-1
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	1 064	940	895	-45	-5
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	146	142	137	-5	-4
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			15	15	15	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(e)			2 737	2 134	2 692	558	26
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

Rural goods

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $3m to $3,802m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $240m (6%) to $3,979m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other rural, up $103m (6%)
• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $79m (18%).

Non-rural goods

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $15m to $27,832m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $586m (2%) to $27,923m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other mineral fuels, up $417m (8%)
• metal ores and minerals, up $318m (3%).

Partly offsetting these rises was coal, coke and briquettes, down $302m (6%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.


Net exports of goods under merchanting

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (7%) to $14m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $15m.


Non-monetary gold

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $192m (8%) to $2,548m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $558m (26%) to $2,692m.


Exports of services


Services credits

Services credits, Seasonally adjusted
						Change in:
			Jul 2019	Aug 2019	Sep 2019	Sep 2019	Sep 2019
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			8 451	8 537	8 606	69	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		4	4	4	-	-
	Transport		655	664	670	6	1
		Passenger(b)	264	271	276	5	2
		Freight(c)	23	23	22	-1	-4
		Other	256	259	259	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)	112	112	114	2	2
	Travel		5 490	5 554	5 602	48	1
	Other services		2 302	2 315	2 329	14	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		5 754	5 825	5 878	53	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $46m (1%) to $8,581m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $69m (1%) to $8,606m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $48m (1%)
• other services, up $14m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $53m (1%) to $5,878m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 20% of total goods and services exported.


Imports of goods and services

Between August and September 2019, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $51m to $35,247m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $889m (3%) to $36,034m. Capital goods rose $702m (12%), intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $474m (4%) and consumption goods rose $64m (1%). Non-monetary gold fell $373m (34%). Services debits rose $22m.


Imports of goods


Goods debits

Goods debits(a), Seasonally adjusted
							Change in:
				Jul 2019	Aug 2019	Sep 2019	Sep 2019	Sep 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-26 784	-26 429	-27 296	867	3
	General merchandise			-25 997	-25 329	-26 569	1 240	5
		Consumption goods		-8 782	-8 697	-8 761	64	1
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 461	-1 450	-1 388	-62	-4
			Household electrical items	-494	-479	-483	4	1
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 939	-1 925	-1 970	45	2
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 534	-1 522	-1 584	62	4
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-544	-549	-548	-1	-
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 811	-2 772	-2 788	16	1
		Capital goods		-6 200	-6 044	-6 746	702	12
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-2 091	-1 986	-1 934	-52	-3
			ADP equipment	-911	-869	-900	31	4
			Telecommunications equipment	-1 206	-1 194	-1 317	123	10
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-233	-294	-366	72	24
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-959	-992	-955	-37	-4
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-799	-710	-1 275	565	80
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-11 015	-10 588	-11 062	474	4
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-186	-166	-180	14	8
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-179	-217	-119	-98	-45
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-3 316	-3 037	-3 275	238	8
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 099	-1 045	-1 159	114	11
			Parts for ADP equipment	-59	-62	-63	1	2
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 626	-1 579	-1 624	45	3
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-270	-250	-258	8	3
			Paper and paperboard	-219	-198	-208	10	5
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-119	-117	-126	9	8
			Iron and steel	-253	-257	-281	24	9
			Plastics	-377	-368	-373	5	1
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-3 167	-3 059	-3 260	201	7
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-38	-125	-28	-97	-78
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-108	-108	-108	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-787	-1 100	-727	-373	-34
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

Consumption goods

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $19m to $8,710m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $64m (1%) to $8,761m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• textiles, clothing and footwear, up $62m (4%)
• non-industrial transport equipment, up $45m (2%).

Partly offsetting these rises was food and beverages, mainly for consumption, down $62m (4%).


Capital goods

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $55m (1%) to $6,132m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $702m (12%) to $6,746m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• capital goods n.e.s., up $565m (80%)
• telecommunications equipment, up $123m (10%).

Intermediate and other merchandise goods

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $9m to $10,805m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $474m (4%) to $11,062m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $238m (8%)
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $201m (7%)
• parts for transport equipment, up $114m (11%).

Partly offsetting these rises was primary industrial supplies n.e.s., down $98m (45%).


Non-monetary gold

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $66m (8%) to $900m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $373m (34%) to $727m.


Imports of services


Services debits

Services debits(a), Seasonally adjusted
						Change in:
			Jul 2019	Aug 2019	Sep 2019	Sep 2019	Sep 2019
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-8 533	-8 716	-8 738	22	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-53	-173	-79	-94	-54
	Transport		-1 538	-1 536	-1 543	7	-
		Passenger(c)	-653	-656	-665	9	1
		Freight	-793	-788	-786	-2	-
		Other(b)	-82	-82	-81	-1	-1
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-10	-10	-11	1	10
	Travel		-4 300	-4 344	-4 439	95	2
	Other services		-2 642	-2 663	-2 677	14	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-4 954	-4 999	-5 104	105	2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $28m to $8,699m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $22m to $8,738m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $95m (2%)
• other services, up $14m (1%).

Partly offsetting these rises was maintenance and repair services n.i.e., down $94m (54%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $105m (2%) to $5,104m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 24% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in:
		Apr 2019	May 2019	Jun 2019	Jul 2019	Aug 2019	Sep 2019
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	17	20	-5	-11	15	-15
	Unit value	6	4	8	5	-12	-
Fines
	Quantity	20	11	-2	-6	5	-2
	Unit value	5	7	7	5	-2	-
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-25	27	18	-18	-2	-3
	Unit value	-	2	-	-5	-2	p-4
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-3	3	23	-20	-6	-5
	Unit value	1	1	p-4	-4	-	p1
Thermal
	Quantity	8	-3	7	15	-17	-
	Unit value	-8	1	-4	-8	6	-4
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	7	-1	-3	13	2	-12
	Unit value	-16	1	-6	5	8	9
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Home Affairs and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between August to September 2019 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, down $372m (15%), with quantities down 15%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $217m (11%), with quantities down 10% and unit values down 1%
• Japan fell $60m (18%), with quantities down 17% and unit values down 2%
• the Republic of Korea fell $56m (36%), with quantities down 52% and unit values up 32%.

Iron ore fines, down $162m (2%), with quantities down 2%. Exports to:

• the Republic of Korea fell $189m (42%), with quantities down 40% and unit values down 3%
• Taiwan fell $14m (15%), with quantities down 1% and unit values down 14%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $35m (1%).

Hard coking coal, down $183m (7%), with quantities down 3% and unit values down 4%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $128m (30%), with quantities down 20% and unit values down 13%
• India fell $94m (16%), with quantities down 15% and unit values down 2%
• Netherlands fell $68m (44%), with quantities down 42% and unit values down 5%
• Taiwan rose $53m (54%), with quantities up 72% and unit values down 10%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $35m (4%), with quantities up 3% and unit values up 1%.

Semi-soft coal, down $39m (5%), with quantities down 5% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $94m (62%), with quantities down 64% and unit values up 6%
• India fell $32m (23%), with quantities down 17% and unit values down 7%
• Japan rose $78m (29%), with quantities up 26% and unit values up 3%.

Thermal coal, down $72m (4%), with unit values down 4%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $99m (12%), with quantities down 10% and unit values down 2%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $79m (25%), with quantities down 22% and unit values down 4%
• Malaysia fell $31m (52%), with quantities down 51% and unit values down 2%
• the Republic of Korea rose $132m (68%), with quantities up 84% and unit values down 8%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), down $195m (4%), with quantities down 12% and unit values up 9%.