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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The examples in the tables below show two scenarios and the consequent revisions to previous trend estimates of inventories owned by private businesses and Manufacturing and Wholesale trade sales.

1 The December quarter seasonally adjusted estimate of chain volume measures is higher than the September quarter estimate by the percentage shown.

2 The December quarter seasonally adjusted estimate of chain volume measures is lower than the September quarter estimate by the percentage shown.

INVENTORIES
		TREND AS PUBLISHED		WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER’S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
				1		2
				rises by 1.1 on Sep 2001		falls by 1.1 on Sep 2001
		$m	% change	$m	% change	$m	% change
	2000
	December	88,057	0.8	88,057	0.8	88,057	0.8
	2001
	March	88,146	0.1	88,138	0.1	88,252	0.2
	June	87,935	-0.2	87,950	-0.2	87,911	-0.4
	September	87,724	-0.2	88,079	0.1	87,534	-0.4
	December	-	-	88,456	0.4	87,136	-0.5

MANUFACTURING SALES
		TREND AS PUBLISHED		WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER’S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
				1		2
				rises by 1.2 on Sep 2001		falls by 1.2 on Sep 2001
		$m	% change	$m	% change	$m	% change
	2000
	December	60,412	-0.7	60,412	-0.7	60,412	-0.7
	2001
	March	60,550	0.2	60,479	0.1	60,566	0.3
	June	61,090	0.9	61,108	1	61,078	0.8
	September	61,801	1.2	61,901	1.3	61,482	0.7
	December	-	-	62,648	1.2	61,652	0.3

WHOLESALE TRADE SALES
		TREND AS PUBLISHED		WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER’S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
				1		2
				rises by 2.3. on Sep 2001		falls by 2.3 on Sep 2001
		$m	% change	$m	% change	$m	% change
	2000
	December	53,609	-1.3	53,609	-1.3	53,609	-1.3
	2001
	March	53,757	0.3	53,620	0	53,770	0.3
	June	54,563	1.5	54,596	1.8	54,544	1.4
	September	55,616	1.9	55,819	2.2	55,093	1
	December	-	-	56,961	2	55,239	0.3