5302.0 - Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia, Mar 2016 
Quality Declaration
Quality Declaration ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 31/05/2016
Page tools:
 Print Page
 Print All
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS
TERMS OF TRADE(footnote 1) Australia's seasonally adjusted terms of trade on net goods and services for the March quarter 2016 fell 1.9% to 78.7, with a decrease of 4.9% in the implicit price deflator (IPD) for goods and services credits and a decrease of 3.0% in the IPD for goods and services debits. In trend terms, the terms of trade for net goods and services fell 2.3% to 78.4. BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES In seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $12,611m, an increase of $4,731m (60%) on the December quarter 2015 surplus of $7,880m. The net surplus on goods increased $4,146m (50%) on the December quarter 2015 surplus of $8,242m. Goods credits rose $3,013m (4%) and goods debits fell $1,132m (2%). The net surplus on services of $223m was a turnaround of $585m on the December quarter 2015 deficit of $362m. The increase in the balance on goods and services surplus, in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, is expected to contribute 1.1 percentage points to growth in the March quarter 2016 volume measure of GDP, assuming no significant revision to the GDP chain volume estimate for the December quarter 2015. Goods The trend estimate of net goods at current prices for the March quarter 2016 was a deficit of $7,319m, a decrease of $279m (4%) on the December quarter 2015 deficit of $7,598m. In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, net goods was a deficit of $6,440m, a decrease of $2,055m (24%) on the December quarter 2015 deficit of $8,495m.
GOODS CREDITS The trend estimate of goods credits at current prices fell $1,131m (2%) to $59,485m in the March quarter 2016. In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, goods credits fell $1,547m (3%) to $58,999m, with volumes up 4% and prices down 6%. Rural Goods Exports of rural goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $1,093m (9%) to $10,421m, with volumes down 7% and prices down 3%. The main components contributing to the fall were:
Non-rural Goods Exports of non-rural goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $969m (2%) to $44,120m, with volumes up 6% and prices down 7%. The main components contributing to the fall were:
Partly offsetting these falls was other manufactures, up $350m (8%), with volumes up 11% and prices down 2%. Net Exports of Goods Under Merchanting Net exports of goods under merchanting, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $12m (9%), with volumes down 4% and prices down 5%. Non-monetary Gold Non-monetary gold, in original and seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, up $527m (14%), with volumes up 8% and prices up 6%. GOODS DEBITS The trend estimate of goods debits at current prices fell $1,410m (2%) to $66,804m in the March quarter 2016. In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, goods debits fell $3,602m (5%) to $65,439m, with volumes down 2% and prices down 4%. Consumption Goods Imports of consumption goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices fell $253m (1%), with prices down 1%. The main components contributing to the fall were:
Partly offsetting these falls was non-industrial transport equipment, up $175m (3%), with volumes up 3%. Capital Goods Imports of capital goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices fell $1,255m (8%) to $15,299m, with volumes down 7% and prices down 1%. The main components contributing to the fall were:
Partly offsetting these falls was capital goods n.e.s., up $180m (10%), with volumes up 14% and prices down 3%. Intermediate and Other Merchandise Goods Imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices fell $2,211m (8%) to $25,162m, with volumes down 1% and prices down 8%. The main components contributing to the fall were:
Non-monetary Gold Imports of non-monetary gold, in original and seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, up $116m (11%), with volumes up 4% and prices up 7%. SERVICES The trend estimate of net services at current prices was a deficit of $1,918m, a decrease of $349m (15%) on the December quarter 2015 deficit of $2,267m. In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, net services was a deficit of $1,674m, a decrease of $769m (31%) on the December quarter 2015 deficit of $2,443m.
Services Credits Services credits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $969m (6%) to $18,412m, with volumes up 6%. The main components contributing to the rise were:
In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $754m (7%) to $11,874m. Services Debits Services debits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $200m (1%) to $20,086m, with volumes up 3% and prices down 2%. The main components contributing to the rise were:
Partly offsetting these rises was transport, down $293m (6%), with volumes down 2% and prices down 4%. In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $268m (3%) to $9,997m. PRIMARY INCOME The trend estimate of the net primary income deficit at current prices decreased $862m (8%) to $9,303m in the March quarter 2016. The seasonally adjusted estimate of the net primary income deficit at current prices increased $979m (9%) to $12,084m in the March quarter 2016. Primary Income Credits Primary income credits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, decreased $4,365m (35%) to $8,093m. The main component contributing to this decrease was direct investment assets, income on equity and investment fund shares, which decreased $4,308m (119%). Primary Income Debits Primary income debits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, decreased $3,385m (14%) to $20,178m. The main components contributing to this decrease were investment income, direct investment liabilities, income on equity and investment fund shares, which decreased $2,462m (35%) and investment income, portfolio investment liabilities, income on equity and investment fund shares, which decreased $683m (14%). SECONDARY INCOME The trend estimate of the net secondary income deficit at current prices decreased $6m (1%) to $592m in the March quarter 2016. In seasonally adjusted terms, the net secondary income deficit at current prices increased $7m (1%) to $595m in the March quarter 2016. CAPITAL ACCOUNT In original terms, the capital account deficit was $135m, an increase of $8m (6%) on the December quarter 2015 deficit of $127m. Capital account credits rose $1m (100%) and capital account debits rose $9m (7%) in the March quarter 2016. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT The balance of the financial account, in original terms, recorded a net inflow of $20.7b, which was driven by a net inflow of equity of $13.6b and a net inflow of debt of $7.1b. The financial account surplus decreased $5.7b to $20.7b in the March quarter 2016, from $26.4b in the December quarter 2015. Direct Investment Direct investment recorded a net inflow of $16.7b in the March quarter 2016, a decrease of $13.1b on the inflow of $29.8b in the December quarter 2015, where:
Portfolio Investment Portfolio investment recorded a net outflow of $17.2b in the March quarter 2016, a turnaround of $35.2b on the inflow of $18.0b in the December quarter 2015, where:
Financial Derivatives Financial derivatives recorded a net outflow of $3.5b in the March quarter 2016, a decrease of $1.9b on the outflow of $5.4b in the December quarter 2015. Other Investment Other investment recorded a net inflow of $22.9b in the March quarter 2016, a turnaround of $39.8b on the outflow of $16.9b in the December quarter 2015. This was driven by a net inflow of loans of $34.1b which was offset by a net outflow in currency and deposits of $11.0b. Reserve Assets Reserve assets recorded a net inflow of $1.8b in the March quarter 2016, an increase of $0.8b on the inflow of $0.9b in the December quarter 2015. INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION (IIP) Australia's net IIP liability position was $1,012.1b at 31 March 2016, an increase of $51.4b (5%) on the revised 31 December 2015 position of $960.8b. Australia's net foreign debt liability increased $9.2b (1%) to a net liability position of $1,027.8b. Australia's net foreign equity asset decreased $42.2b (73%) to a net asset position of $15.7b at 31 March 2016. The changes contributing to this result are shown in the following table.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION CONDITIONS The conditions in the global economy showed modest growth for most countries in the March quarter 2016. Growth in the US and the EU improved. However, growth in Asia (including China and Japan) was again weaker than expected. According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)(footnote 2), preliminary growth rate compared to last quarter in seasonally adjusted terms showed quarterly growth for Indonesia (1.2%), China (1.1%), Spain (0.8%), Germany (0.7%), France (0.5%), Euro area (0.5%), South Korea (0.4%), the UK (0.4%), Japan (0.4%), Italy (0.3%) and the USA (0.1%). Preliminary growth rates fell for Greece (0.4%).
The Australian share market, as measured by the MSCI global index(footnote 3), decreased 4.7% in the March quarter 2016, following an increase of 7.4% in the December quarter 2015. Increases were recorded in New Zealand (7.7%), Canada (3.0%) and the USA (0.4%). Decreases were recorded in Japan (13.4%), Switzerland (10.3%), Germany (7.3%), France (4.8%), the UK (1.1%), Hong Kong (1.0%) and Singapore (0.4%). A market price decrease of $0.8b was recorded for foreign equity assets and -$13.9b in foreign equity liabilities in the March quarter 2016. According to Bloomberg(footnote 4), the composite corporate benchmark yield decreased in the UK from 3.23% to 2.90%, the USA from 3.70% to 3.22%, Germany from 1.45% to 1.11% and Japan from 0.31% to 0.22%. In Australia, the rate decreased from 3.78% to 3.62%. The long-term 10 year government bond yields decreased in the UK from 1.96% to 1.42%, the USA from 2.27% to 1.78%, Germany from 0.63% to 0.16% and Japan from 0.25% to -0.04%. In Australia, the rate decreased from 2.85% to 2.57%. A market price increase of -$0.7b was recorded for portfolio debt securities assets and $6.8b in portfolio debt securities liabilities in the March quarter 2016. The Australian dollar appreciated against a number of the major currencies in the March quarter 2016. It increased 4.80% against the US dollar, 4.37% against the Chinese renminbi, 1.24% against the European euro, 2.21% against the South Korean won, 8.30% against the UK pound sterling, 4.06% against the New Zealand dollar and 0.17% against the Singapore dollar. The Australian dollar depreciated 2.33% against the Japanese yen, 4.12% against the Malaysian ringggit and 1.83% against the Canadian dollar. The Trade Weighted Index (footnote 4)(footnote 5), recorded a rise of 2.71%. This is reflected in exchange rate decreases for foreign assets of $51.9b and foreign liabilities of -$9.6b in the March quarter 2016. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IPD, EPI AND IPI(footnote 6) In original terms, the IPD for total goods credits fell 5.2% and the chain Laspeyres price index for goods exports fell 4.8%. The Export Price Index (EPI)(footnote 7) fell 4.7% during the March quarter 2016. In original terms, the IPD for total goods debits fell 4.4% and the chain Laspeyres price index for goods imports fell 3.0%. The Import Price Index (IPI)(footnote 7) fell 3.0% during the March quarter 2016. Differences between the IPD and International Trade Price Indexes can arise due to a number of methodological factors including differences in pricing points, timing, coverage and weights.
Commodity Price Indexes The RBA Commodity Price Index (average monthly index) for rural commodities decreased 1.7% between the December quarter 2015 and March quarter 2016 while the EPI for rural goods decreased 3.7%. The RBA Commodity Price Index for non-rural commodities decreased 3.5% while the EPI for non-rural goods total (excluding non-monetary gold) decreased 5.9%. Differences between the RBA Commodity Price Index and ABS price measures are largely a consequence of methodological differences used in the construction of the respective indexes, including coverage of included commodities and timing of source data. 1 In this commentary movements in indexes are based on data to four decimal places. <back 2 OECD Statistics Quarterly National Account, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development - Economic Department, viewed 23 May 2016. <back 3 MSCI Global Market Indexes 2015, Morgan Stanley Capital International, viewed 6 April 2016. <back 4 Bloomberg, Bloomberg Professional Service, viewed 7 April 2016. <back 5 Exchange Rates - Daily 2015 to Current, Reserve Bank of Australia - Statistical Tables, viewed 5 April 2016. <back 6 In this commentary movements in indexes are based on data to four decimal places. <back 7 Source: International Trade Price Indexes, Australia (cat. no. 6457.0). <back Document Selection These documents will be presented in a new window.
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
