LABOUR FORCE COMMENTARY SEPTEMBER 2015


NATIONAL ESTIMATES

Australia's unemployment rate remained at 6.2% (seasonally adjusted) in September 2015, but decreased 0.1 percentage points based on unrounded estimates with:

• the number of employed persons decreasing by 5,100 to 11,769,900,
• the number of unemployed persons decreasing by 8,100 to 772,500, and
• the participation rate decreasing 0.2 percentage points (based on unrounded estimates) to 64.9%.

In trend terms, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.2% in September 2015. The number of employed persons in September 2015 increased by 12,400 to 11,775,800 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 3,900 to 780,600 in trend terms. The trend participation rate increased less than 0.1 percentage points to 65.0% in September 2015.

The employment to population ratio, which expresses the number of employed persons as a percentage of the civilian population aged 15 years and over, decreased 0.1 percentage points to 60.9% in September 2015 (seasonally adjusted). In trend terms, the employment to population ratio was unchanged at 60.9%.

Seasonally adjusted full-time employment decreased by 13,900 persons to 8,124,400 while part-time employment increased by 8,900 to 3,645,500 persons in September 2015. The decrease in total employment resulted from:

• a decrease in male full-time employment, down 11,000 persons
• a decrease in female full-time employment, down 2,900 persons
• a decrease in male part-time employment, down 2,100 persons
• an increase in female part-time employment, up 11,000 persons.

Seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked in all jobs increased 12.2 million hours in September 2015 to 1,638.0 million hours.


STATE ESTIMATES

The largest absolute decreases in seasonally adjusted employment were in Western Australia (down 9,300 persons) and South Australia (down 8,400 persons). The state with the largest increase in seasonally adjusted employment was Queensland (up 4,600 persons).

The largest decreases in the seasonally adjusted participation rate were in South Australia (down 0.8 percentage points), Western Australia (down 0.6 percentage points) and Tasmania (down 0.5 percentage points).

The largest decreases in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate were in Tasmania (down 0.4 percentage points) and South Australia (down 0.2 percentage points). The only state with an increase in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was Victoria (up 0.1 percentage points).

Seasonally adjusted estimates are not published for the territories and the ABS recommends using trend estimates to analyse the underlying behaviour of the series.

Unemployment rate, States and Territories, August 2015 and September 2015
	Trend		Seasonally Adjusted
	August	September	August	September
	%	%	%	%
New South Wales	5.9	5.9	6.0	5.9
Victoria	6.2	6.2	6.1	6.2
Queensland	6.3	6.3	6.4	6.3
South Australia	7.9	8.0	7.9	7.7
Western Australia	6.1	6.2	6.1	6.1
Tasmania	6.4	6.2	6.4	6.0
Northern Territory	4.7	4.9	np	np
Australian Capital Territory	4.9	5.1	np	np
Australia	6.2	6.2	6.2	6.2
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated

GROSS FLOWS

Gross flows (Data Cube GM1) highlight the change in labour force status of individuals between last month and this month. Gross flows are derived from the matched part of the sample that is common between two consecutive months. After taking account of sample rotation and varying non-response each month, this is approximately 80% of the sample. However, the level and movement estimates produced from the gross flows will not necessarily represent 80% of the level and movement estimates in a given month from the whole sample. Despite this limitation, analysis of the gross flows data can provide an indication, in original terms, of underlying movements in the labour market.

In original terms between August and September 2015 the number of persons employed increased by 70,500 with gross flows showing a net increase of 57,700. The increase shown in the gross flows comprised:

• 225,200 persons whose status changed from not in the labour force to employed,
• 112,400 persons whose status changed from unemployed to employed,
• 65,200 persons whose status changed from employed to unemployed, and
• 214,700 persons whose status changed from employed to not in the labour force.

In original terms between August and September 2015 the number of persons unemployed decreased by 7,800 with gross flows showing a net decrease of 19,900. The decrease shown in the gross flows comprised:

• 120,500 persons whose status changed from unemployed to not in the labour force,
• 112,400 persons whose status changed from unemployed to employed,
• 65,200 persons whose status changed from employed to unemployed, and
• 147,800 persons whose status changed from not in the labour force to unemployed.

As the gross flows data are presented in original terms they are not directly comparable to the seasonally adjusted and trend data discussed elsewhere in the commentary.