LABOUR FORCE COMMENTARY JULY 2013


NATIONAL ESTIMATES

Australia's unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.7% in July 2013 in both seasonally adjusted and trend terms. The number of unemployed persons decreased by 5,700 to 705,400 in July 2013 (seasonally adjusted), while in trend terms the number of unemployed persons in July 2013 rose by 5,300 to 706,900.

July 2013 saw the seasonally adjusted participation rate decrease 0.2 percentage points to 65.1%. The trend participation rate remained at 65.2% in July 2013, following a revision to the June estimate.

The seasonally adjusted number of employed persons fell by 10,200 in July 2013 to 11,653,200 persons. In trend terms, employment increased by 1,000 persons to 11,660,000 persons in July 2013. The employment to population ratio, which expresses the number of employed persons as a percentage of the civilian population aged 15 years and over, decreased to 61.4% (seasonally adjusted). The trend employment to population ratio decreased to 61.5%.

Seasonally adjusted full-time employment fell in July 2013, down 6,700 persons to 8,133,900 persons while part-time employment fell by 3,500 persons to 3,519,300 persons. The decrease in total employment resulted from:

• a decrease in male full-time employment, down 4,500 persons
• a decrease in female full-time employment, down 2,200 persons
• a decrease in male part-time employment, down 2,000 persons
• a decrease in female part-time employment, down 1,400 persons.

Despite the decrease in total employment, seasonally adjusted aggregate hours worked increased 7.9 million hours (0.5%) in July 2013 to 1,648.6 million hours.


STATE ESTIMATES

The largest absolute decreases in seasonally adjusted employment were in South Australia (down 12,300 persons), Victoria (down 12,300 persons) and New South Wales (down 7,400 persons). The largest increase in the number of employed persons was in Queensland, up 18,400 persons (seasonally adjusted). Seasonally adjusted estimates are not published for the territories.

Unemployment rate, State and Territories - June 2013 and July 2013
	Trend		Seasonally Adjusted
	June	July	June	July
	%	%	%	%
New South Wales	5.5	5.6	5.4	5.6
Victoria	5.7	5.6	5.8	5.7
Queensland	6.0	6.1	6.3	5.9
South Australia	6.3	6.4	6.1	7.1
Western Australia	4.8	4.8	4.6	4.6
Tasmania	8.2	8.4	9.0	8.2
Northern Territory	5.2	5.3	np	np
Australian Capital Territory	3.8	3.6	np	np
Australia	5.7	5.7	5.7	5.7
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated

ABOUT THE DATA

Phase-in of a new sample design, as well as expanding the roll out of the offer of online self completion of the Labour Force Survey, commenced in May 2013 and have continued in July.

The phase-in of a new survey sample has resulted in a short term increase in the standard errors associated with Labour Force data. Standard errors on month-to-month movement estimates are predicted to increase by approximately 10% during this period but will only have a marginal impact on the quality of level estimates. For further details, refer to the article on page 10 of the May 2013 issue of this publication and the Information Paper: Labour Force Survey Sample Design, May 2013 (ABS cat. no. 6269.0). These standard errors are reflected in the table on page 2 in the Notes page.

The simultaneous introduction of two rotation groups per month between May and August 2013 has resulted in a lower proportion of the sample matched between months. In July 2013, the new sample for more remote, less populated areas and non-private dwellings was also introduced for New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia. The phase-in of the new sample is reflected in smaller estimates in the gross flows in Table 17 on page 21.

The annual rebenchmarking of the aggregate hours worked series was conducted in July. This has resulted in some minor historical revisions to the aggregate hours worked data. For further detail on the methodology see Information Paper: Expansion of Hours Worked Estimates from the Labour Force Survey, Australia, 2009 (ABS cat. no. 6290.0.55.001).