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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. The approximate effects of possible scenarios on trend estimates for capital expenditure in chain volume terms are presented below by illustrating the impact if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate rises or falls by a specified percentage (based on the historical average of movements in seasonally adjusted estimates). For further information, see paragraphs 41 and 42 in the Explanatory Notes.

Buildings and Structures

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.1% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2014 June 25 915 -1.9 25 915 -1.9 25 915 -1.9 September 25 306 -2.3 25 285 -2.4 25 335 -2.2 December 24 456 -3.4 24 461 -3.3 24 442 -3.5 2015 March 23 553 -3.7 23 710 -3.1 23 468 -4.0

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 1.9% on this quarter (2) falls by 1.9% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2014 June 12 408 1.7 12 408 1.7 12 408 1.7 September 12 672 2.1 12 677 2.2 12 703 2.4 December 12 807 1.1 12 806 1.0 12 797 0.7 2015 March 12 902 0.7 12 897 0.7 12 773 -0.2

WHAT IF NEXT QUARTER'S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: Trend as published (1) rises by 2.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 2.0% on this quarter $m % $m % $m % 2014 June 38 321 -0.7 38 321 -0.7 38 321 -0.7 September 37 982 -0.9 37 961 -0.9 38 037 -0.7 December 37 266 -1.9 37 278 -1.8 37 252 -2.1 2015 March 36 399 -2.3 36 612 -1.8 36 247 -2.7