MAIN FEATURE


POPULATION AND GROWTH

The preliminary estimated resident population (ERP) of Australia at 30 June 2010 was 22,342,000 persons, an increase of 377,100 since 30 June 2009 and 70,500 persons since 31 March 2010. The annual population growth rate for the year ended 30 June 2010 was 1.7% and has been declining since the peak of 2.2% for the year ended 30 June 2009 and was the lowest recorded since the year ended 30 June 2006.

COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM).

The contribution to population growth for the year ended 30 June 2010 was higher for NOM (57%) than for natural increase (43%).

Natural Increase

Natural increase for the 12 months ended 30 June 2010 was 161,500 persons, an increase of 5.3% (or 8,200 persons) compared with natural increase for the year ended 30 June 2009 (153,300 persons).

BIRTHS

The preliminary estimate of births during the year ended 30 June 2010 (302,200) was 1.7% (or 5,100 births) higher than the figure for the year ended 30 June 2009 (297,100).

DEATHS

The preliminary estimate of deaths during the year ended 30 June 2010 (140,600) was 2.2% (or 3,100 deaths) lower than the figure for the year ended 30 June 2009 (143,700).


Net Overseas Migration

The preliminary estimate for NOM during the June quarter 2010 (32,300) was 25,800 persons (or 44.3%) lower than the estimate for the June quarter 2009 (58,100). The decrease in preliminary NOM between June quarter 2009 and June quarter 2010 was due to a 19,000 decline in NOM Arrivals and a 6,800 increase in NOM Departures. The states with the largest numerical decreases in NOM Arrivals over this period were Victoria (down 6,400), New South Wales (down 6,000), Queensland (down 3,900), Western Australia (down 1,400) and South Australia (down 700).

For the year ended 30 June 2010, Australia's preliminary NOM estimate was 215,600 persons. This was the difference between 463,000 overseas arrivals that were added to the population (NOM arrivals) and 247,500 overseas departures that were subtracted from the population (NOM departures).


STATES AND TERRITORIES: POPULATION AND GROWTH

The estimated resident populations for the states and territories at 30 June 2010 were as follows:

• New South Wales 7,238,800;
• Victoria 5,547,500;
• Queensland 4,516,400;
• South Australia 1,644,600;
• Western Australia 2,296,400;
• Tasmania 507,600;
• Northern Territory 229,700; and
• Australian Capital Territory 358,900.

All states and territories recorded positive population growth over the 12 months ended 30 June 2010. Western Australia recorded the fastest growth rate (2.2%), followed by Queensland (2.0%), Victoria (1.8%), the Australian Capital Territory (1.8%), the Northern Territory (1.5%), New South Wales (1.5%), South Australia (1.2%) and Tasmania (0.9%).


COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE

At the state and territory level, population growth has three components: natural increase, net overseas migration and net interstate migration.

Although all states and territories experienced positive population growth in the year ended 30 June 2010, the proportion that each of these components contributed to population growth varied between the states and territories.

Natural Increase

As illustrated in the graph above, for the year ended 30 June 2010, natural increase was the major component of population growth in the Northern Territory at 87% (3,100 persons) and the Australian Capital Territory at 58% (3,700 persons).

Estimates of births and deaths are subject to fluctuations caused by lags or accumulations in the reporting of birth and death registrations (for more information see paragraphs 10-11 of the Explanatory Notes).

BIRTHS

The total number of births registered for the 12 months ended 30 June 2010 increased in most states and territories, with decreases recorded for Victoria and Tasmania. Compared with the previous year, the Australian Capital Territory recorded the largest proportional increase (8.4%), followed by New South Wales (3.3%) and the Northern Territory (2.7%). The number of registered births decreased by 5.0% in Tasmania and 0.5% in Victoria. For more information, see table 13.

DEATHS

The total number of deaths registered for the 12 months ended 30 June 2010 remained relatively stable in Tasmania, South Australia and Queensland. Compared with the previous year, there was an increase in Western Australia (up 1.2%) and decreases in the Northern Territory (down 6.4%), the Australian Capital Territory (down 4.7%), Victoria (down 3.6%) and New South Wales (down 3.0%). For more information, see table 14.


Net Overseas Migration

All states and territories recorded positive net overseas migration (NOM) for the year ended 30 June 2010. NOM was the major component of population growth for South Australia at 77% (15,400 persons), New South Wales at 63% (66,000 persons), Victoria at 61% (60,400 persons), Western Australia at 58% (28,200 persons) and Queensland at 45% (39,700 persons).


Net Interstate Migration

Queensland recorded the highest gains from net interstate migration (NIM) for the year ended 30 June 2010 (9,600 persons). Other states and territories which recorded net gains were Victoria (2,600 persons), Western Australia (2,000 persons), and Tasmania (320 persons). Net losses from interstate migration were recorded in New South Wales (10,500 persons) and South Australia (3,000 persons). Small net losses were estimated for the Northern Territory (800 persons) and the Australian Capital Territory (70 persons). For more information, see table 19.

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON

For the 12 months ended 30 June 2010, Australia's population growth rate (1.7%) was above that of the world (1.1%). Australia is growing at a faster rate than many countries including Malaysia (1.6%), India (1.4%), Indonesia and Viet Nam (both 1.1%), United States of America (1.0%), Singapore and New Zealand (both 0.9%), Canada (0.8%), the United Kingdom (0.6%), France, China and Hong Kong (all 0.5%), Republic of Korea (0.3%), Sweden (0.2%) and Greece (0.1%). Further, Japan experienced a decrease in its population (-0.2%), as did Italy and South Africa (both -0.1%). Two countries that experienced faster growth than Australia were Papua New Guinea (2.0%) and the Philippines (1.9%).

According to figures from the US Bureau of Census' International Data Bank of 227 countries, Australia's population ranked 54th in 2010 (relatively stable from 55th in 2009) and is projected to rank 55th by 2050. By 2050, India is projected to have displaced China as the most populous country with 1.66 billion people compared with 1.30 billion in China.

POPULATION, GROWTH RATE AND RANK(a), Summary
	ESTIMATED RESIDENT POPULATION			PROJECTED POPULATION	RANK
	2009	2010	Growth Rate	2050	2010	2050
Selected Countries	million	million	%	million	no.	no.
Australia	22	22	1.7	34	54	55
Canada	33	34	0.8	41	36	45
China (excl. SARs and Taiwan)	1 324	1 330	0.5	1 304	1	2
France	64	65	0.5	70	21	25
Greece	11	11	0.1	10	75	95
Hong Kong (SAR of China)	7	7	0.5	6	99	116
India	1 157	1 173	1.4	1 657	2	1
Indonesia	240	243	1.1	313	4	4
Italy	58	58	-0.1	50	23	35
Japan	127	127	-0.2	94	10	20
Republic of Korea	49	49	0.3	43	26	41
Malaysia	28	28	1.6	43	43	42
New Zealand	4	4	0.9	5	125	121
Papua New Guinea	6	6	2.0	10	105	93
Philippines	98	100	1.9	172	12	11
Singapore	5	5	0.9	5	117	127
South Africa	49	49	-0.1	49	25	36
Sweden	9	9	0.2	9	89	101
United Kingdom	62	62	0.6	71	22	22
United States of America	307	310	1.0	439	3	3
Viet Nam	89	90	1.1	111	13	15
World	6 777	6 853	1.1	9 284	. .	. .
. . not applicable
(a) Selected countries include major OECD countries, the world's most populous countries, Australia's closest neighbours and trading partners.
Source: Australian estimates, this issue of Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); Australian projections, Series B in Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0); selected country and world estimates and projections, US Bureau of Census, International Data Base (IDB).