5302.0 - Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia, Sep 2012 
Quality Declaration
Quality Declaration ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/12/2012
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ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS
VOLUMES AND PRICES Goods and Services In seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,454m, a rise of $490m (51%) on the June quarter 2012 surplus of $964m. The net surplus on goods rose $583m (13%) on the June quarter 2012 surplus of $4,376m. Goods credits rose $485m (1%) and goods debits fell $98m. The net deficit on services rose $92m (3%) on the June quarter 2012 deficit of $3,412m. The increase in the balance on goods and services surplus, in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, is expected to contribute 0.1 percentage points to growth in the September quarter 2012 volume measure of GDP, assuming no significant revision to the GDP chain volume estimate for the June quarter 2012. Terms of Trade and Implicit Price Deflator Australia's seasonally adjusted terms of trade on net goods and services fell 4.0% to 92.4 with a decrease of 5.9% in the implicit price deflator (IPD) for goods and services credits and a decrease of 2.0% in the IPD for goods and services debits. In trend terms, the terms of trade for net goods and services fell 1.4% to 93.4. Goods The trend estimate of net goods at current prices was a deficit of $1,392m, a rise of $880m (172%) on the June quarter 2012 deficit of $512m. In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, net goods was a deficit of $1,813m, a turnaround of $2,776m on the June quarter 2012 surplus of $963m.
Services
GOODS CREDITS The trend estimate of goods credits at current prices fell $972m (2%) to $61,955m in the September quarter 2012. In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, goods credits fell $4,279m (7%) to $60,915m, with volumes up 1% and prices down 7%. Rural Goods Exports of rural goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $134m (2%) to $8,717m, with volumes up 2% and prices down 4%. The main component contributing to the fall was other rural, down $190m (5%), with volumes up 1% and prices down 6%. Partly offsetting this fall was the cereal grains and cereal preparations component, up $102m (4%), with volumes up 1% and prices up 3%. Non-rural Goods Exports of non-rural goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $3,818m (7%) to $48,056m, with volumes up 1% and prices down 8%. The main components contributing to the fall were:
Partly offsetting these falls was the other mineral fuels component, up $845m (13%), with volumes up 16% and prices down 3%. Net Exports of Goods Under Merchanting Net exports of goods under merchanting, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $17m (59%), with volumes up 84% and prices down 14%. Non-monetary Gold Non-monetary gold, in original and seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $344m (8%), with volumes down 7% and prices down 1%. GOODS DEBITS The trend estimate of goods debits at current prices fell $91m to $63,347m in the September quarter 2012. In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, goods debits fell $1,503m (2%) to $62,728m, with prices down 2%. Consumption Goods Imports of consumption goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $167m (1%) to $16,771m with prices down 1%. The main component contributing to the fall was non-industrial transport equipment, down $212m (5%), with volumes down 5%. Capital Goods Imports of capital goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $1,303m (7%) to $16,904m with volumes down 7% and prices down 1%. The main components contributing to the fall were:
Intermediate and Other Merchandise Goods Imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $206m (1%) to $27,437m, with volumes up 4% and prices down 4%. The main component contributing to the fall was parts for transport equipment, down $196m (7%), with volumes down 6% and prices down 1%. Non-monetary Gold Imports of non-monetary gold, in original and seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $173m (12%) to $1,616m, with volumes up 12%. SERVICES The trend estimate of net services at current prices was a deficit of $2,943m, a rise of $169m (6%) on the June quarter 2012 deficit of $2,774m. In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, net services was a deficit of $2,832m, a fall of $245m (8%) on the June quarter 2012 deficit of $3,077m. Services Credits Services credits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $232m (2%) to $12,937m, with volumes up 1% and prices up 1%. The main component contributing to the rise was travel, up $187m (2%), with volumes up 2% and prices up 1%. In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service credits rose $195m (2%) to $8,577m. Services Debits Services debits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $13m to $15,769m, with volumes up 1% and prices down 1%. The main components contributing to the fall were:
Partly offsetting these falls was the other services component, up $309m (6%), with volumes up 9% and prices down 3%. In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service debits fell $283m (3%) to $8,108m. PRIMARY INCOME The trend estimate of the net primary income deficit at current prices fell $484m (5%) in the September quarter 2012 to $9,922m. In seasonally adjusted terms, the net primary income deficit fell $34m in the September quarter 2012 to $10,023m. Primary Income Credits Primary income credits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose by $94m (1%) to $9,484m. The main component contributing to the rise was direct investment assets, income on equity and investment fund shares, up $191m (5%). Partly offsetting this rise was a $68m (14%) fall in other investments assets. Primary Income Debits Primary income debits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose by $60m to $19,507m. The main components contributing to the rise were:
Partly offsetting these rises was a $542m (9%) fall in portfolio investment assets, interest. SECONDARY INCOME The trend estimate of the net secondary income deficit at current prices, fell $41m (16%) to $209m in the September quarter 2012. In seasonally adjusted terms, the net secondary income deficit at current prices, rose $33m (17%) to $231m in the September quarter 2012. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT The balance on financial account, in original terms, recorded a net inflow of $16.4b, with a net inflow of $8.8b of equity and a net inflow of $7.6b of debt. The financial account surplus increased $7.5b, from $8.9b in June quarter 2012 to $16.4b in September quarter 2012. Direct investment recorded a net inflow of $8.0b in September quarter 2012, a decrease of $3.2b from the net inflow of $11.2b in June quarter 2012, where:
Portfolio investment recorded a net inflow of $0.7b, a turnaround of $10.8b from the net outflow of $10.1b in June quarter 2012, where:
Financial derivatives recorded a net inflow of $2.6b, a turnaround of $5.4b from the net outflow of $2.9b in June quarter 2012. Other investment recorded a net inflow of $2.7b, a decrease of $5.2b from the net intflow of $7.9b in June quarter 2012. Reserve assets recorded a net inflow of $2.4b, a decrease of $0.4b from the net inflow of $2.8b in June quarter 2012. INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION ANALYSIS Australia's net international investment position at 30 September 2012 was a net foreign liability of $869.6b, up $8.7b on the 30 June 2012 position of $860.9b. The changes contributing to this result are shown in the following table.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION CONDITIONS The conditions in the global economy showed moderate increases for most countries in the September quarter 2012. According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), preliminary real GDP estimates in seasonally adjusted terms showed movement in quarterly growth for: China (2.2%), UK (1.0%), USA (0.5%) and Germany (0.2%). Australia's international investment activities during the quarter were as follows:
The Australian share market, as measured by the MSCI global index, increased by 7.2% in September quarter 2012 following a decrease of 5.0% in June quarter 2012. There were increases in all major markets: Germany 12.4%, Hong Kong 11.7%, Europe (excluding UK) 9.4%, New Zealand 9.1%, Switzerland 7.0%, Canada 6.0%, Singapore 5.9%, USA 5.8%, France 5.3% and United Kingdom 2.9%. A market price change of $18.0b was recorded for foreign equity liabilities and -$14.6b for foreign equity assets during September quarter 2012. According to Bloomberg, the corporate benchmark composite yield decreased in Australia from 5.17% to 4.58%, in UK from 4.34% to 3.66%, in USA from 3.37% to 2.87%, in Germany from 3.29% to 2.47% and Japan from 0.70% to 0.64%. Long term government bond yields decreased in the major markets in September quarter 2012. The 10 year government bond yields decreased in the UK from 1.75% to 1.72%, in the USA from 1.67% to 1.65%, in Germany from 1.60% to 1.41% and in Japan from 0.84% to 0.78%. In Australia, the rates increased from 2.99% to 3.09%. This is reflected in the market price changes for both portfolio debt securities liabilities of -$1.3b and assets of -$0.5b in September quarter 2012. The Australian dollar appreciated against some major currencies and fell against others in September quarter 2012. It increased 2.7% against US dollar, 2.7% against Hong Kong dollar, 1.6% against Chinese renminbi, 0.7% against Swiss franc, 0.3% against Danish kronor and 0.2% against Japanese yen. The Australian dollar fell 4.1% against Indian rupee, 4.0% against UK pound sterling, 3.9% against Swedish krona, 2.4% against Norwegian kroner, 2.0% against Canadian dollar and 1.0% against Singaporean dollar. The Trade Weighted Index (TWI) recorded an increase of 0.5%. This is reflected in the exchange rate changes for foreign liabilities of -$7.5b and foreign assets of $1.5b in September quarter 2012. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IPD, EPI AND IPI(footnote 1) In original terms, the IPD for total goods credits fell 6.9% and the chain Laspeyres price index for goods exports fell 7.1%. The export price index (EPI) fell 6.4% during the September quarter 2012. In original terms, the IPD for total goods debits fell 2.0% and the chain Laspeyres price index for goods imports fell 2.5%. The import price index (IPI) fell 2.4% during the September quarter 2012. Differences between the IPD and International Trade Price Indexes can arise due to a number of methodological factors including differences in pricing points, timing, coverage and weights. In the September quarter 2012, differences between the IPD and EPI were mainly due to the 'wool and sheepskins', 'meat and meat preparations' and 'other mineral fuels' components.
Commodity Price Indexes The RBA Commodity Price Index(footnote 2) (average monthly index) for rural commodities increased 2.5% between the June quarter 2012 and September quarter 2012 while the EPI for rural goods total decreased 2.2%. The RBA Commodity Price Index for non-rural commodities decreased 8.0% while the EPI for non-rural goods total (excluding non-monetary gold) decreased 7.6%. Differences between the RBA Commodity Price Index and ABS price measures are largely a consequence of methodological differences used in the construction of the respective indexes, including coverage of included commodities and timing of source data. 1 In this commentary movements in indexes are based on data to four decimal places. <back 2 For RBA Commodity Price Index methodology, see paragraph 23 of the Explanatory Notes. <back Document Selection These documents will be presented in a new window.
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