ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $628m in June 2013, an increase of $76m (14%) on the surplus in May 2013.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $602m in June 2013, an increase of $95m (19%) on the surplus in May 2013.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to June 2013 was a surplus of $1,164m, a turnaround of $1,595m on the deficit of $431m for the three months to March 2013. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary June quarter 2013 surplus was $935m, a rise of $856m (1084%) on the revised March quarter 2013 surplus of $79m.

Revised quarterly estimates will be included in Balance of Payments – Goods and Services, Preliminary Quarterly Estimates (cat. no. 5302.0.55.004) and Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between May and June 2013, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $160m (1%) to $26,151m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $299m (1%) to $26,077m. Non–monetary gold fell $282m (20%) and non–rural goods fell $34m. Rural goods rose $22m (1%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (8%). Services credits fell $6m.


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $42m (1%) to $3,208m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $22m (1%) to $3,206m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other rural, up $55m (4%)
• wool and sheepskins, up $21m (9%).

Partly offsetting these rises was the cereal grains and cereal preparations component, down $55m (7%).

NON–RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non–rural goods rose $105m (1%) to $17,261m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non–rural goods fell $34m to $17,306m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was metal ores and minerals, down $367m (5%).

Partly offsetting this fall were:

• other manufactures, up $185m (15%)
• other non–rural (incl. sugar and beverages), up $94m (11%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, up $62m (2%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (7%) to $13m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (8%) to $13m.

NON–MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non–monetary gold rose $2m to $1,277m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non–monetary gold fell $282m (20%) to $1,160m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $11m to $4,392m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $6m to $4,392m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was transport, down $4m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $5m to $2,757m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between May and June 2013, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $84m to $25,523m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $394m (2%) to $25,475m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $598m (7%) and non–monetary gold fell $59m (14%). Capital goods rose $163m (3%) and consumption goods rose $80m (1%). Services debits rose $19m.


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $16m to $5,830m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $80m (1%) to $5,952m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was non–industrial transport equipment, up $87m (6%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $61m (1%) to $5,124m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $163m (3%) to $5,261m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was capital goods n.e.s., up $135m (13%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $2m to $8,841m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $598m (7%) to $8,570m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, down $489m (14%)
• primary industrial supplies n.e.s., down $59m (34%).

NON–MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non–monetary gold rose $2m (1%) to $397m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non–monetary gold fell $59m (14%) to $360m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $6m to $5,331m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $19m to $5,331m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $50m (2%).

Partly offsetting this rise were:

• transport, down $17m (1%)
• other services, down $14m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $46m (2%) to $2,781m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: International merchandise trade basis (a) – Original terms
		Change in
		Jan 2013	Feb 2013	Mar 2013	Apr 2013	May 2013	Jun 2013
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	–15	–12	28	8	–11	–1
	Unit value	15	4	–1	4	2	–1
Fines
	Quantity	–19	–4	23	–1	7	–6
	Unit value	14	8	–2	–1	–	–4
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	–15	–4	–3	11	3	12
	Unit value	3	3	–1	–	–	1
Semi–soft
	Quantity	–15	–5	31	–18	37	–26
	Unit value	2	2	1	–	4	–
Thermal
	Quantity	–10	–14	–6	19	–6	25
	Unit value	–	1	–1	–3	5	1
– nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between May and June 2013 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump fell $32m (2%), with quantities down 1% and unit values down 1%.
Exports to:

• Japan fell $43m (11%), with quantities down 14% and unit values up 3%
• the Republic of Korea rose $31m (58%), with quantities up 68% and unit values down 6%
• China fell $22m (2%), with quantities down 1% and unit values down 2%.

Iron ore fines fell $438m (10%), with quantities down 6% and unit values down 4%.
Exports to:

• China fell $212m (6%), with quantities down 2% and unit values down 4%
• Japan fell $119m (22%), with quantities down 25% and unit values up 4%
• the Republic of Korea fell $101m (27%), with quantities down 24% and unit values down 5%.

Hard coking coal rose $181m (14%), with quantities up 12% and unit values up 1%.
Exports to:

• China rose $80m (30%), with quantities up 28% and unit values up 2%
• Netherlands rose $52m (119%), with quantities up 117% and unit values up 1%
• India rose $47m (15%), with quantities up 13% and unit values up 2%.

Semi–soft coal fell $205m (27%), with quantities down 26%.
Exports to:

• Japan fell $92m (35%), with quantities down 36% and unit values up 1%
• the Republic of Korea fell $29m (23%), with quantities down 23%
• India fell $26m (26%), with quantities down 26% and unit values up 1%.

Thermal coal rose $327m (26%), with quantities up 25% and unit values up 1%.
Exports to:

• Japan rose $164m (27%), with quantities up 24% and unit values up 3%
• China rose $121m (54%), with quantities up 48% and unit values up 4%.