ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,534m in December 2012, a fall of $184m (11%) on the deficit in November 2012.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $427m in December 2012, a fall of $2,361m (85%) on the deficit in November 2012.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to December 2012 was a deficit of $5,081m, a fall of $766m (13%) on the deficit of $5,847 for the three months to September 2012. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary December quarter 2012 deficit was $5,721m, a fall of $5m on the revised September quarter 2012 deficit of $5,726m.

Revised quarterly estimates will be included in Balance of Payments - Goods and Services, Preliminary Quarterly Estimates (cat. no. 5302.0.55.004) and Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between November and December 2012, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $133m (1%) to $24,674m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $648m (3%) to $25,381m. Non-rural goods rose $1,043m (7%). Non-monetary gold fell $274m (18%), rural goods fell $44m (1%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (17%). Services credits fell $76m (2%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $10m to $2,984m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $44m (1%) to $2,988m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $75m (11%).

Partly offsetting this fall was the other rural component, up $22m (2%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $154m (1%) to $15,929m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $1,043m (7%) to $16,859m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $747m (12%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, up $143m (5%)
• other manufactures, up $111m (9%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $3m (33%) to $6m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (17%) to $5m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $29m (2%) to $1,404m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $274m (18%) to $1,215m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits fell $1m to $4,350m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $76m (2%) to $4,314m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, down $79m (3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $76m (3%) to $2,784m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between November and December 2012, the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $51m to $26,208m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $1,713m (6%) to $25,808m. Capital goods fell $1,196m (19%), intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $373m (4%)and consumption goods fell $91m (2%). Non-monetary gold rose $11m (3%). Services debits fell $64m (1%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $20m to $5,711m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $91m (2%) to $5,706m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• consumption goods n.e.s., down $58m (3%)
• textiles, clothing and footwear, down $26m (3%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, down $24m (3%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $68m (1%) to $5,389m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $1,196m (19%) to $5,174m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $501m (35%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $303m (58%)
• telecommunications equipment, down $282m (37%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $9m to $9,105m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $373m (4%) to $9,006m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other parts for capital goods, down $143m (12%)
• organic and inorganic chemicals, down $68m (15%)
• other merchandise goods, down $41m (62%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $31m (7%) to $428m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $11m (3%) to $377m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $19m to $5,574m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $64m (1%) to $5,545m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transport, down $37m (2%), with freight transport down $33m (4%)
• travel, down $30m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $36m (1%) to $2,887m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: International merchandise trade basis - Original terms
		Change in
		Jul 2012	Aug 2012	Sep 2012	Oct 2012	Nov 2012	Dec 2012
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore(a)
Lump
	Quantity	5	6	-4	9	-2	17
	Unit value	-8	-7	-11	2	4	1
Fines
	Quantity	1	5	-5	4	-2	23
	Unit value	-7	-10	-13	3	6	3
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-21	13	16	-11	18	8
	Unit value	-2	-4	-5	-15	-8	2
Semi-soft
	Quantity	5	-11	10	-3	17	8
	Unit value	-4	-2	-6	-8	-8	3
Thermal
	Quantity	13	-14	13	10	-17	23
	Unit value	-5	-3	-3	1	-5	-3
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between November and December 2012 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump rose $198m (18%), with quantities up 17% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• Japan rose $102m (42%), with quantities up 42%
• China rose $75m (10%), with quantities up 9% and unit values up 1%.

Iron ore fines rose $809m (27%), with quantities up 23% and unit values up 3%. Exports to:

• China rose $593m (26%), with quantities up 21% and unit values up 4%
• Republic of Korea up $138m (52%) with quantities up 46% and unit values up 4%.

Hard coking coal rose $125m (10%) with quantities up 8% and unit values up 2%. Exports to:

• India rose $168m (97%), with quantities up 87% and unit values up 5%
• Japan rose $84m (37%), with quantities up 38% and unit values down 1%
• Republic of Korea fell $52m (51%), with quantities down 50% and unit values down 3%.

Semi-soft coal rose $62m (11%), with quantities up 8% and unit values up 3%. Exports to:

• China rose $74m (44%), with quantities up 33% and unit values up 8%.

Thermal coal rose $242m (19%), with quantities up 23% and unit values down 3%. Exports to:

• Japan rose $150m (28%), with quantities up 29%
• China rose $68m (27%), with quantities up 29% and unit values down 2%.