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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2017 September 156 503 -0.1 156 576 0.0 156 576 0.0 December 156 714 0.1 156 943 0.2 157 096 0.3 2018 March 157 498 0.5 158 018 0.7 157 964 0.6 June 158 433 0.6 159 154 0.7 158 418 0.3

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 4.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 4.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2017 September 80 138 -0.4 80 138 -0.4 80 138 -0.4 December 82 295 2.7 82 068 2.4 82 526 3.0 2018 March 85 575 4.0 85 616 4.3 85 457 3.6 June 88 775 3.7 89 048 4.0 86 848 1.6