ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in June 2008 was a surplus of $158m, a turnaround of $200m on the revised deficit in May 2008.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in June 2008 was a surplus of $411m, a turnaround of $664m on the revised deficit in May 2008.

The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to June 2008 was a surplus of $765m, a turnaround of $8,378m on the deficit of $7,613m for the three months to March 2008. However, if the seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the June quarter 2008 surplus was $559m, a turnaround of $7,872m on the revised March quarter 2008 deficit of $7,313m.


2007-08 SITUATION

For 2007-08, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $17.9b. This is an increase of $5.7b on the 2006-07 deficit resulting from a $19.5b (9%) increase in exports offset by a $25.2b (11%) increase in imports of goods and services.

Exports of non-rural and other goods were up $14.2b (10%) and rural goods were up $0.4b (2%) compared to 2006-07.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $406m (2%) between May and June to $22,773m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $454m (2%) to $23,049m. Non-rural goods rose $529m (4%), rural goods fell $97m (4%) and other goods fell $20m (2%). Services credits rose $42m (1%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $21m (1%) to $2,375m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $97m (4%) to $2,302m.

The components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• meat and meat preparations, down $51m (8%)
• wool and sheepskins, down $29m (14%)
• cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $21m (3%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods fell $431m (16%) to $2,205m.

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $366m (3%) to $14,696m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $529m (4%) to $15,107m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, up $657m (21%)
• other mineral fuels, up $101m (5%).

Partly offsetting these were:

• other non-rural, down $110m (10%)
• transport equipment, down $41m (8%)
• machinery, down $39m (5%)
• metal ores and minerals, down $37m (1%).

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $390m (3%) to $15,262m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, exports of other goods fell $41m (3%) to $1,146m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of other goods fell $20m (2%) to $1,047m with non-monetary gold down $19m (2%).

In original terms, exports of other goods fell $17m (2%) to $1,053m.


Exports of Services


In trend terms, services credits rose $59m (1%) to $4,555m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $42m (1%) to $4,592m.

All components contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates with:

• travel services, up $30m (1%)
• transportation services, up $12m (1%)
• other services, up $1m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $22m (1%) to $2,948m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $206m (1%) between May and June to $22,614m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $210m (1%) to $22,638m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $398m (5%), consumption goods fell $102m (2%) and other goods fell $74m (8%) while capital goods rose $341m (9%). Services debits rose $23m (1%).

Preliminary analysis shows that goods imports volumes, in seasonally adjusted terms, rose about 2.0% during the June quarter 2008 and the implicit price deflator rose 1%. In original terms, the Chain Laspeyres price index rose about 1.8% and the implicit price deflator rose about 0.6%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the June quarter 2008 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $12m to $5,186m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $102m (2%) to $5,183m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, down $185m (12%).

Partly offsetting this fall was the household electrical items component, up $150m (35%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods fell $252m (5%) to $4,791m.

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $17m to $3,995m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $341m (9%) to $4,158m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• civil aircraft, up $291m (139%)
• industrial transport equipment nes, up $131m (21%).

Partly offset these rises were:

• machinery and industrial equipment, down $41m (3%)
• ADP equipment, down $38 (7%).

In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $497m (13%) to $4,304m.

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $130m (2%) to $8,351m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $398m (5%) to $8,252m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, down $341m (11%). In original terms, crude petroleum oils increased $265m (20%) with volumes up 13% while refined petroleum oils decreased $513m (29%), with volumes down 36%. Within refined petroleum oils:

• diesel decreased $172m
• gasoline decreased $170m
• fuel oil decreased $124m.

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $746m (9%) to $7,991m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, imports of other goods rose $25m (3%) to $922m.

In both original terms and seasonally adjusted terms, other goods debits fell $74m (8%) to $874m. The main component contributing to the fall was goods for processing, down $128m (91%) which was partially offset by non-monetary gold, up $58m (9%).


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $22m (1%) to $4,160m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $23m (1%) to $4,171m.

All components contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates with:

• transportation services, up $11m (1%)
• travel services, up $8m (1%)
• other services, up $4m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $44m (2%) to $2,195m.