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INTRODUCTION

1 This publication contains preliminary statistics on short-term visitor arrivals to Australia, including a breakdown by country of usual residence for selected major regions and countries.

2 These preliminary estimates are revised and final estimates are published in the ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0).

3 From June 1997 until May 2003, preliminary estimates for short-term visitor arrivals were published in the monthly Overseas Arrivals and Departures publication. The decision to produce this monthly electronic release of preliminary data followed feedback on the ABS Demography Working Paper 2003/4 - A New Dissemination Strategy for Overseas Arrival and Departure Statistics.

SOURCE OF THE STATISTICS

4 The preliminary estimates of short-term visitor arrivals are based on data provided by the Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs' (DIMIA) Travel and Immigration Processing System (TRIPS).

5 Final estimates of short-term visitor arrivals are based on incoming and outgoing passenger cards, completed by persons arriving in, or departing from Australia. More information about the methodology underlying final estimates of short-term visitor arrivals (including information about estimation, standard errors and data quality issues) can be found in Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0).

SCOPE

6 The statistics in this publication relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers (i.e. multiple movements of individual persons during a given reference period are each counted separately). The statistics exclude the movements of operational air and ships' crew, of transit passengers who pass through Australia but are not cleared for entry, and of passengers on pleasure cruises commencing and finishing in Australia aboard ships not then engaged on regular voyages. Similarly, these statistics exclude those persons not travelling under standard visa conditions, that is, unauthorised arrivals.

COUNTRY CLASSIFICATION

7 The classification of countries in table 2 of this publication is the Australian Standard Classification of Countries for Social Statistics (ASCCSS). For more detailed information refer to the ABS publication, Australian Standard Classification of Countries for Social Statistics (cat. no. 1269.0).

ESTIMATION METHOD

8 The TRIPS system produces a limited range of data, including country of citizenship. The ABS applies a model which uses the relationship between country of citizenship from TRIPS and country of residence from incoming passenger card data over 25 months, to produce preliminary estimates by country of usual residence.

9 The relationship between TRIPS and passenger card data is not sufficiently stable to produce estimates of a publishable standard for countries other than those in table 2 of this publication.

10 The statistics in this publication have been rounded to the nearest 100. The sums of the components may, due to rounding, not add exactly to totals.

SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT AND TREND ESTIMATES

11 Original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals to Australia are presented in table 1of this publication. Short-term visitor arrivals by country of residence, shown in table 2, are provided as original estimates only.

12 Seasonal adjustment is a means of removing the estimated effects of normal seasonal variation from the series so that the effects of other influences on the series may be more clearly recognised. Seasonal Adjustment accounts for normal seasonal factors and trading day effects (arising from the varying numbers of Sundays, Mondays, Tuesdays etc. in the month) and the effect of movement in the date of Easter which may, in successive years, affect figures for different months.

13 Seasonal adjustment procedures do not aim to remove the irregular or non-seasonal influences which may be present in any particular month, such as the effect of major sporting and cultural events, changes in airfares and the fluctuation of the Australian dollar relative to other currencies. Irregular influences that are highly volatile can make it difficult to interpret the movement of the series even after adjustment for seasonal variation.

14 The trend estimate accounts for irregular and non-seasonal influences as well as seasonal variations to reveal the underlying behaviour of the series. The trend estimate presented in table 1 is derived by applying a 13-term Henderson-weighted moving average to all months of the respective seasonally adjusted series except the first and last six months. Trend series are created for the last six months by applying surrogates of the Henderson weighted moving average to the seasonally adjusted series.

15 While this technique enables smoothed data for the latest period to be produced, it does result in revisions to the smoothed series, principally of recent months, as additional observations become available. There may also be revisions as a result of the re-estimation of the seasonal factors. For further information, see A Guide to Interpreting Time Series—Monitoring 'Trends', an Overview (cat. no. 1348.0).

16 The trend estimates are a measure of underlying behaviour and, in the short term, may be adversely affected by unusual influences recorded in the original data. As recent original and seasonally adjusted estimates include the effect of international reports of SARS, and the anticipation and commencement of military action in Iraq, users are advised to exercise caution when assessing the most recent trend estimates, which will be revised in future publications, as new monthly data become available.

RELATED PUBLICATIONS

17 Users of these statistics may also wish to refer to the following ABS publications:

• Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) - issued monthly
• Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) - issued quarterly
• Migration, Australia (cat. no. 3412.0) - issued annually

Previous/future country of residence
State of intended address/lived

Intended/actual length of stay
Main reason for journey
Country of residence
State of intended address/in which most time spent

Intended/actual length of stay overseas
Country spent/intend to spend most time abroad
State or territory of intended address/state or territory lived