ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,782m in March 2010, an increase of $58m on the revised deficit in February 2010.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,082m in March 2010, an increase of $381m on the revised deficit in February 2010.

The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to March 2010 was a deficit of $4,734m, a decrease of $808m on the deficit of $5,542m for the three months to December 2009. However, if the seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the March quarter 2010 deficit was $4,618m, a decrease of $989m on the revised December quarter 2009 deficit of $5,607m.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February 2010 and March 2010 the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $107m (1%) to $20,337m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $306m (2%) to $20,441m. Non-monetary gold rose $308m (34%), rural goods rose $46m (2%) and services credits rose $37m (1%). Non-rural goods fell $86m (1%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $39m (2%) to $2,146m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $46m (2%) to $2,160m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $56m (14%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $32m (7%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the other rural component, down $49m (5%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $66m (1%) to $12,521m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $86m (1%) to $12,434m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was coal, coke and briquettes, down $371m (14%).

Partly offsetting this decrease was the other mineral fuels component, up $232m (14%).

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (5%) to $21m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $23m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $29m (3%) to $1,073m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, non-monetary gold rose $308m (34%) to $1,202m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $30m (1%) to $4,576m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $37m (1%) to $4,622m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was travel services, up $35m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $29m (1%) to $3,139m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February 2010 and March 2010 the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $165m (1%) to $22,119m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $688m (3%) to $22,524m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $694m (10%), non-monetary gold rose $128m (27%), capital goods rose $64m (2%) and services debits rose $11m. Consumption goods fell $210m (4%).

Preliminary analysis shows that, in seasonally adjusted terms, goods imports volumes increased about 1.3% during the March quarter 2010 and the implicit price deflator rose 0.2%. In original terms, the Chain Laspeyres price index rose about 0.3% while the implicit price deflator rose 0.1%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the March quarter 2010 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $29m (1%) to $5,194m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $210m (4%) to $5,143m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• consumption goods n.e.s., down $97m (6%)
• non-industrial transport equipment, down $82m (5%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $44m (1%) to $4,069m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $64m (2%) to $4,085m.

The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• capital goods n.e.s., up $104m (11%)
• telecommunications equipment, up $66m (15%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $38m (6%).

Partly offsetting these rises was the machinery and industrial equipment component, down $125m (9%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $60m (1%) to $7,563m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $694m (10%) to $7,880m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other merchandise goods, up $282m
• fuels and lubricants, up $263m (13%)
• other parts for capital goods, up $114m (10%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $13m (3%) to $479m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, non-monetary gold debits rose $128m (27%) to $595m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $44m (1%) to $4,814m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $11m to $4,821m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transport services, up $34m (3%)
• travel services, up $6m.

Partly offsetting these increases was the maintenance and repair services n.i.e. component down $33m (62%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $17m (1%) to $2,556m.