APPENDIX 1 BACKCAST ESTIMATES FOR THE PERIOD 1996 TO 2000
QUALITY CONCERNS
Backcast estimates included in this release are compiled using the 30 June 2011 estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population as the base population and assumptions on mortality and interstate migration (see paragraphs 22-24 of the Explanatory Notes for more information). Reliable life expectancy estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population are not available for the period 1996-2000. Therefore, mortality assumptions for these years were based on the 2010-2012 life expectancy estimates. There will be a greater alignment between this assumption-based mortality and the actual mortality for the years closer to the base year than those for the out years. Moreover, estimates of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population at 30 June 2011 (based on the 2011 Census) are 30% larger than those at 30 June 2006 (based on the 2006 Census). As a consequence, the use of this particularly large base 2011 ERP introduces uncertainty to the historical estimates by inflating them. The uncertainty increases as the time from the base year increases. Due to this reason, the ABS advises that the 1996-2000 estimates included in the spreadsheet attached to this release should be used with caution.
A1.1 ESTIMATES OF ABORIGINAL AND TORRES STRAIT ISLANDER AUSTRALIANS, States/territories - At 30 June |
|
 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 |
|
| NSW | 153 289 | 157 044 | 160 700 | 164 302 | 167 572 |
| Vic. | 31 917 | 32 715 | 33 516 | 34 372 | 35 138 |
| Qld | 120 460 | 125 089 | 129 663 | 134 030 | 138 670 |
| SA | 24 567 | 25 447 | 26 335 | 27 222 | 28 182 |
| WA | 63 565 | 65 157 | 66 746 | 68 451 | 70 236 |
| Tas. | 16 048 | 16 709 | 17 337 | 17 986 | 18 620 |
| NT | 54 943 | 55 836 | 56 747 | 57 698 | 58 672 |
| ACT | 3 202 | 3 354 | 3 582 | 3 801 | 4 067 |
| Aust.(a) | 468 183 | 481 552 | 494 830 | 508 071 | 521 369 |
|
| (a) Includes Other Territories. |
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