ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS
BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES
The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in September 2007 was a deficit of $1,667m, an increase of $80m on the deficit in August.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in September 2007 was a deficit of $1,862m, an increase of $197m on the deficit in August.
The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to September 2007 was a deficit of $4,538m, an increase of $560m on the deficit of $3,978m for the three months to June 2007. However, if the seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the September quarter 2007 deficit was $4,387m, an increase of $522m on the revised June quarter 2007 deficit of $3,865m.
EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES
The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $15m between August and September to $18,259m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $746m (4%) to $17,916m. Non-rural goods fell $605m (5%) and other goods fell $317m (25%) while rural goods rose $126m (7%). Services credits rose $49m (1%).
Exports of goods
GOODS CREDITS
RURAL GOODS
The trend estimate of rural goods exports rose $6m to $1,914m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $126m (7%) to $1,990m.
The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:
- cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $88m (39%)
- other rural, up $18m (2%)
- meat and meat preparations, up $15m (3%).
In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $171m (9%) to $2,035m.
Non-rural goods
The trend estimate of non-rural goods exports rose $7m to $11,087m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $605m (5%) to $10,843m.
The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted series were:
- other mineral fuels, down $588m (39%)
- other non-rural, down $212m (18%).
Partly offsetting these effects were:
- coal, coke and briquettes, up $74m (4%)
- metals (excluding non-monetary gold), up $69m (6%)
- machinery, up $45m (6%).
In original terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $861m (7%) to $10,884m.
The main movement in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms was other mineral fuels, down $612m (38%), compared to an average August to September rise of 4% over the previous three years, with:
- crude oil, down $353m (41%), with volumes down 40% and prices down 2%
- Liquid Natural Gas (LNG), down $165m (38%).
Other goods
The trend estimate of other goods exports fell $24m (2%) to $1,132m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of other goods fell $317m (25%) to $930m.
The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted series was non-monetary gold, down $306m (28%).
In original terms, exports of other goods fell $316m (25%) to $938m.
Exports of services
SERVICES CREDITS
In trend terms, services credits rose $28m (1%) to $4,127m.
Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $49m (1%) to $4,153m.
All components contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates with:
- travel services, up $26m (1%)
- transportation services, up $13m (2%)
- other services, up $10m (1%).
Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services credits rose $32m (1%) to $2,638m. This series is seasonally adjusted independently to the series that comprise services credits.
IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES
The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $95m between August and September to $19,926m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $548m (3%) to $19,779m. Other goods fell $320m (36%), intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $267m (4%) and capital goods fell $34m (1%), while consumption goods rose $61m (1%). Services debits rose $11m.
Preliminary analysis shows that goods imports volumes, in seasonally adjusted terms, rose about 1.9% during the September quarter 2007. The Chain Laspeyres price index fell about 0.6% and the implicit price deflator fell about 0.9%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the September quarter 2007 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0)
Imports of goods
GOODS DEBITS
CONSUMPTION GOODS
The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods rose $35m (1%) to $4,696m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $61m (1%) to $4,772m.
The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- household electrical items, up $24m (6%)
- consumption goods n.e.s., up $19m (1%)
- toys, books and leisure goods, up $16m (5%).
In original terms, imports of consumption goods fell $111m (2%) to $4,957m.
Capital goods
The trend estimate of imports of capital goods rose $33m (1%) to $3,603m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $34m (1%) to $3,664m.
The components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- civil aircraft, down $228m
- ADP equipment, down $29m (5%)
- industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $22m (4%).
Partly offsetting these effects were:
- machinery and industrial equipment, up $205m (16%)
- capital goods n.e.s., up $21m (5%).
In original terms, imports of capital goods fell $205m (5%) to $3,573m.
Intermediate and other merchandise goods
The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $12m to $6,907m.
In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $267m (4%) to $6,848m.
The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- fuels and lubricants, down $199m (9%), driven by crude petroleum, down $151m (11%)
- parts for transport equipment, down $54m (7%)
- other merchandise goods, down $23m (19%).
Partly offsetting these effects were:
- organic and inorganic chemicals, up $27m (7%)
- primary industrial supplies n.e.s., up $13m (13%)
- textile yarn and fabrics, up $13m (12%).
In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $701m (10%) to $6,673m.
Other goods
The trend estimate of imports of other goods rose $13m (2%) to $791m.
In both original and seasonally adjusted terms, other goods debits fell $320m (36%) to $564m.
The main component contributing to the fall in both original and seasonally adjusted estimates was non-monetary gold, down $310m (42%).
Imports of services
SERVICES DEBITS
In trend terms, services debits rose $27m (1%) to $3,929m.
Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $11m to $3,930m.
The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:
- transportation services, up $31m (2%)
- other services, up $14m (1%).
Partly offsetting these effects was the travel services component, down $33m (2%).
Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services debits fell $30m (1%) to $1,990m. This series is seasonally adjusted independently to the series that comprise services debits.
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