5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Dec 2015 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 25/02/2016   
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APPENDIX SAMPLING ERRORS


LEVEL ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

The estimates in this publication are based on a sample drawn from units in the surveyed population. Because the entire population is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to sampling error. The most common way of quantifying such sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate or statistic.


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a level estimate.

Let us say that the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $35,963m and the calculated standard error in this case is $468m. The standard error is then used to interpret the level estimate of $35,963m.

For instance, the standard error of $468m indicates that:

  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real value falls within the range $35,495m to $36,431m ($35,963m ± $468m)
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real value falls within the range $35,027m to $36,899m ($35,963m ± $936m)

The real value in this case is the result we would obtain if we could enumerate the total population.

The following table shows the standard errors for December Quarter 2015 estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
58
13
59
Manufacturing
13
125
126
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
34
32
50
Construction
10
157
159
Wholesale Trade
84
46
105
Retail Trade
38
86
99
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
83
225
246
Information Media and Telecommunications
8
40
39
Financial and Insurance Services
14
30
36
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
200
128
253
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
22
111
115
Other Selected Services
105
119
180
Total
282
364
468
New South Wales
113
217
277
Victoria
93
186
208
Queensland
157
142
202
South Australia
75
78
123
Western Australia
162
100
191
Tasmania
10
13
18
Northern Territory
12
5
15
Australian Capital Territory
-
11
11
Australia
282
364
468
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)



MOVEMENT ESTIMATES


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate.

Let us say that one quarter the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $32,409m and the next quarter the published level estimate is $35,963m.

In this example the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $466m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of $3,554m.

For instance, the standard error of $466m indicates that:
  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real movement over the two-quarter period falls within the range $3,088m to $4,020m ($3,554m ± $466m).
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real movement falls within the range $2,622m to $4,486m ($3,554m ± $932m)

The following table shows the standard errors for December Quarter 2015 movement estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
60
58
80
Manufacturing
20
129
132
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
13
23
26
Construction
16
172
176
Wholesale Trade
110
66
109
Retail Trade
64
78
103
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
51
155
152
Information Media and Telecommunications
8
35
36
Financial and Insurance Services
42
26
54
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
184
133
233
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
15
136
135
Other Selected Services
83
126
150
Total
277
368
466
New South Wales
104
216
245
Victoria
94
192
200
Queensland
149
180
246
South Australia
60
99
141
Western Australia
135
110
187
Tasmania
11
15
17
Northern Territory
54
16
60
Australian Capital Territory
2
26
26
Australia
277
368
466