3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jun 2009  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/08/2009   
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1 SUSPENSION OF TREND ESTIMATES (SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES) SERIES

The trend series attempts to measure the underlying behaviour in passenger movements. In the short term, this measurement may be significantly affected by unusual influences in the original and seasonally adjusted data, like those observed in April, May and June 2009 for Short-term Resident Departures. If the trend estimates in the publication were to be calculated without fully accounting for these unusual influences, they would be likely to provide a misleading view of the underlying trend in activity.

Further, if passenger movements in subsequent months are influenced by these unusual influences, it may be some time before the underlying behaviour of the series can be reliably estimated. The trend estimates have therefore been suspended from April 2009 for all Short-term Resident Departures series. The trend estimates will be reintroduced when more stability emerges in the underlying behaviour of passenger movements.

Appropriate seasonally adjusted estimates can be produced and will continue to be published as usual.

Also, caution should be used when interpreting recent Short-term Visitor Arrivals trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, please see paragraph 23 of the Explanatory Notes.


2 For data quality issues see the Appendix which is found on the Explanatory Notes tab of Overseas Arrivals and Departures (cat. no. 3401.0).

3 Short-term movements are based on a sample and are subject to sampling error. See paragraphs 10 and 11 of the Explanatory Notes and the Standard Errors section from the Explanatory Notes tab of Overseas Arrivals and Departures (cat. no. 3401.0) for more detail.


4 Occasionally situations occur that necessitate breaks being applied to the trend series. These breaks are necessary because of a change in the underlying level of the original series. While the breaks apply to an individual country (e.g. Indonesia) a consequence is that breaks are also applied to the regional total series (e.g. Total South-East Asia) and the total series. Breaks currently included in the trend series are as follows:
    • October 2002: Short-term resident departures - Indonesia, Total South-East Asia and Total - Trend series breaks due to the decrease in movements resulting from the Bali bombing of 12 October 2002.
    • December 2003: Short-term resident departures - Indonesia, Total South-East Asia and Total - Trend series breaks due to a return to the trend levels experienced prior to the Bali bombing of 12 October 2002.
    • October 2005: Short-term resident departures - Indonesia, Total South-East Asia and Total - Trend series breaks due to the decrease in movements resulting from the Bali bombing of 1 October 2005.
    • December 2006: Short-term resident departures - Indonesia, Total South-East Asia and Total - Trend series breaks due to the increase in movements to Indonesia to levels closer to, but still lower than, the movements experienced prior to the Bali bombing of 1 October 2005.


5 For additional notes on the data please see the Notes section of the Key Figures of Overseas Arrivals and Departures (cat. no. 3401.0).