3401.0.30.001 - Preliminary Estimates of Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Oct to Dec 2014 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 03/03/2015  First Issue
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1 The following estimates of overseas arrivals and departures have been derived from a combination of historical OAD data and information about travellers for the relevant reference months from the Department of Immigration and Border Protection's traveller processing system. The regular data source for overseas arrivals and departure statistics, passenger cards, is currently unavailable. The ABS is working closely with the Department of Immigration and Border Protection to resume the regular release of Overseas Arrivals and Departures statistics. In the meantime, the following modelled estimates are provided. The modelled statistics are estimates of totals for each category of movement for each state or territory of residence/stay, and for Australia. The estimates have not been seasonally adjusted. For further information see the Estimation Model Method at Explanatory Notes 7 to 13.

2 For an estimate of accuracy, users can refer to the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) which can be used in a similar fashion to a relative standard error would be for sample surveys. The RRMSE indicates how well the model performs in comparison with known historical data. The ABS recommends using the RRMSE percentage to represent accuracy around data points for October 2014 and beyond. A 95% confidence interval can be formed by adding and subtracting 1.96 x RRMSE relative to the estimated count N.

3 Care should be taken by users as these are modelled estimates. The model assumes that seasonal and trend behaviour have remained consistent with recent history up to September 2014.

4 For more information about the data see the Explanatory Notes section of this issue.