3222.0 Population Projections, Australia, 2012 (base) to 2101 - ABS.Stat Datasets

These datasets contain population projections, by age and sex, for all projection series for the period 30 June 2012 to 2101 for Australia, and 30 June 2012 to 2061 for the states and territories and capital cities/balance of state.

For information on validating the relevant datasets you use please see the corresponding section below.


USING ABS.STAT DATASETS

ABS.Stat Beta is a free web tool being trialled by the ABS for manipulating multidimensional datasets. It has some similarities to Excel pivot tables and SuperTable software, but is different in that it can operate with most web browsers and does not require any software to be installed on the user's computer. To use the ABS.Stat Beta format you need to click on the relevant icon and it will take you directly to the data.

In ABS.Stat, the 3 dimensions of a table are Row, Column and Page. All of the variables of a table can be placed into these dimensions to produce customised tables of ABS data. For example, if the user wants 'age' to go across the table, then 'age' is placed in the column dimension. For 'age' to go down the table, it is placed in the row dimension (on the Customise>>Layout screen).

The 2 most powerful ways to customise your table are:
1) Clicking on individual variables to subset or choose additional categories.
2) Arranging the table using the Customise>>Layout menu option. This is where variables can be dragged and dropped into the different dimensions to customise your table.

After customising your table, it can be downloaded in Excel format by following the Export>>Excel menu option. Future versions of ABS.Stat will have more functions enabled.

For more information on ABS.Stat and how to use it please follow this link https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/1407.0.55.001main+features22013 Within ABS.Stat, follow the link on the top right of the screen labelled User assistance and contact to access a User Guide, some video tutorials and an FAQ section.


PROJECTION SERIES

The dataset relating to Australia contains 24 alternative projection series (net interstate migration flows do not apply at the Australia level) whilst the datasets relating to the states and territories contain 72 alternative projection series (both the Australian dataset and those relating to the states and territories include the main reporting Series A, B and C).

Each projection series is based on a combination of different assumptions on fertility, life expectancy (mortality), net overseas migration and net interstate migration. A table presenting the alternative assumptions used and their corresponding series numbers is presented below:

PROJECTION SERIES, Assumptions used
	HIGH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH(a)				MEDIUM LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH(b)
	Net interstate migration (large flows)(e)(f)	Net interstate migration (medium flows)(e)	Net interstate migration (small flows)(e)(f)		Net interstate migration (large flows)(e)(f)	Net interstate migration (medium flows)(e)	Net interstate migration (small flows)(e)(f)
HIGH FERTILITY (TFR = 2.0)(c)
Net overseas migration (per year)(d)
280 000	1(A)	2	3		4	5	6
240 000	19	20	21		22	23	24
200 000	37	38	39		40	41	42
0	55	56	57		58	59	60
MEDIUM FERTILITY (TFR = 1.8)(c)
Net overseas migration (per year)(d)
280 000	7	8	9		10	11	12
240 000	25	26	27		28	29(B)	30
200 000	43	44	45		46	47	48
0	61	62	63		64	65	66
LOW FERTILITY (TFR = 1.6)(c)
Net overseas migration (per year)(d)
280 000	13	14	15		16	17	18
240 000	31	32	33		34	35	36
200 000	49	50	51		52	53	54(C)
0	67	68	69		70	71	72
(a) The high life expectancy scenario assumes continuing improvement in life expectancy (see Chapter 2 - Assumptions, for further information). (b) The medium life expectancy scenario assumes declining improvement in life expectancy (see Chapter 2 - Assumptions, for further information). (c) The fertility assumption is phased in from present levels to the levels indicated in this table by 2026. (d) The net overseas migration assumptions use the Department of Immigration forecasts until 2017 thereafter the assumptions indicated in this table are phased in by 2021. (e) The net interstate migration assumptions are phased in by 2021. (f) The large interstate flows assumption corresponds to large net interstate losses for New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. For these states, the small interstate flows assumption yields greater population growth.