5676.0 - Business Indicators, Australia, Sep 2006  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/12/2006   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.


1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.


2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.


Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

Graph: What If Inventories (chain volume measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 1.1% on this quarter
(2) falls by 1.1% on this quarter
$m
% change
$m
% change
$m
% change
2005
December
106 677
0.6
106 680
0.6
106 680
0.6
2006
March
106 666
0.0
106 668
0.0
106 803
0.1
June
106 060
-0.6
106 071
-0.6
106 026
-0.7
September
105 097
-0.9
105 443
-0.6
104 794
-1.2


Company gross operating profits (Current prices)

Graph: What If Company gross operating profits (current prices)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4.0% on this quarter
(2) falls by 4.0% on this quarter
$m
% change
$m
% change
$m
% change
2005
December
39 851
2.7
39 851
2.7
39 851
2.7
2006
March
40 604
1.9
40 543
1.7
40 778
2.3
June
41 564
2.4
41 588
2.6
41 506
1.8
September
42 513
2.3
42 819
3.0
41 689
0.4