5676.0 - Business Indicators, Australia, Mar 2011  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/05/2011   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

Graph: Trend Revisions


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1)
falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2)
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%

2010
June
145 936
0.0
145 936
0.0
145 936
0.0
September
145 765
-0.1
145 663
-0.2
145 836
-0.1
December
145 932
0.1
145 970
0.2
145 911
0.1
2011
March
146 373
0.3
146 818
0.6
145 985
0.1



Company gross operating profits (Current prices)

Graph: Trend Revisions


What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
rises by 5.1% on this quarter (1)
falls by 5.1% on this quarter (2)
$m
%
$m
%
$m
%

2010
June
(a)66 493
(a)na
(a)66 493
(a)na
(a)66 493
(a)na
September
66 233
-0.4
66 085
-0.6
66 480
0.0
December
65 639
-0.9
65 715
-0.6
65 578
-1.4
2011
March
65 147
-0.8
66 466
1.1
64 567
-1.5

na not available
(a) Break in series between this quarter and preceding quarter.