5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, June 2018 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/08/2018   
   Page tools: Print Print Page Print all pages in this productPrint All

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 30 and 31 in the Explanatory Notes.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the trend estimates:

1 The July 2018 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is higher than the June 2018 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

2 The July 2018 seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of dwelling commitments is lower than the June 2018 seasonally adjusted estimate by 2.1%.

The percentage change chosen is the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data.

Number of Owner Occupied Dwelling Finance Commitments

Graph: Sensitivity Analysis
What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 2.1% on this month
(2) falls by 2.1% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change
December 2017
55 051
-1.0
55 051
-1.0
55 051
-1.0
January 2018
54 428
-1.1
54 400
-1.2
54 441
-1.1
February 2018
53 824
-1.1
53 772
-1.2
53 843
-1.1
March 2018
53 253
-1.1
53 229
-1.0
53 264
-1.1
April 2018
52 768
-0.9
52 835
-0.7
52 741
-1.0
May 2018
52 374
-0.7
52 603
-0.4
52 294
-0.8
June 2018
52 137
-0.5
52 494
-0.2
51 911
-0.7