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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 1.1% on this quarter (2) falls by 1.1% on this quarter $m % change $m % change $m % change 2008 June 121 790 1.0 121 790 1.0 121 790 1.0 September 121 800 0.0 121 830 0.0 121 984 0.2 December 120 982 -0.7 121 003 -0.7 120 951 -0.8 2009 March 119 854 -0.9 120 254 -0.6 119 513 -1.2

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published (1) rises by 4.0% on this quarter (2) falls by 4.0% on this quarter $m % change $m % change $m % change 2008 June (a)58 708 (a)na (a)58 708 (a)na (a)58 708 (a)na September 59 524 1.4 59 630 1.6 59 944 2.1 December 57 993 -2.6 57 989 -2.8 57 880 -3.4 2009 March 55 094 -5.0 55 763 -3.8 54 254 -6.3 na not available (a) Break in series between March 2008 and June 2008. See paragraph 24 of the Technical Notes for more information.