3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Dec 2016 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 13/02/2017   
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MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during December 2016 (708,200 movements) increased 0.2% when compared with November 2016 (706,900 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 8.7% higher than in December 2015.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Short-Term Visitor Arrivals, Australia

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during December 2016. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for December 2015 and December 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for India (19.9%), followed by Malaysia (13.9%), and Japan (13.8%).


Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - December 2016
Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Nov '16 to Dec '16
Dec '15 to Dec '16
Country of Residence(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change
New Zealand
112.3
112.1
128.5
-0.5
2.4
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
59.4
60.4
116.8
0.1
1.1
China
105.3
104.2
98.8
0.7
7.6
United States of America
61.8
61.5
87.8
-0.2
12.0
Singapore
36.1
35.8
57.9
-0.5
4.4
Malaysia
33.1
31.2
43.2
-1.3
13.9
Japan
35.7
35.8
42.0
0.9
13.8
Hong Kong
21.3
22.3
32.5
0.9
9.3
Korea, South
24.6
23.8
30.4
-0.1
10.5
India
23.3
23.1
29.5
0.7
19.9
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The January 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% higher than December 2016.
      2 The January 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than December 2016.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STVA Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during December 2016 (823,800 movements) decreased 0.3% when compared with November 2016 (826,000 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 1.7% higher than in December 2015.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Short-Term Resident Departures, Australia

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in December 2016. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for December 2015 and December 2016 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for India (9.7), followed by Japan (9.3%), and China (7.4%).The highest percentage decreases were recorded for Thailand (-5.8%) and UK, CIs & IOM (-1.9%).


Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - December 2016
Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
Nov '16 to Dec '16
Dec '15 to Dec '16
Country of Stay(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change
New Zealand
111.7
111.9
184.7
-0.1
2.3
Indonesia
98.4
98.8
103.5
-1.1
-1.0
United States of America
86.9
79.7
101.0
-1.3
0.7
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
50.7
54.8
70.8
2.0
-1.9
India
27.8
28.5
63.9
0.8
9.7
China
39.3
39.7
49.3
1.0
7.4
Thailand
41.8
42.3
48.9
-0.9
-5.8
Japan
31.6
30.6
43.9
0.9
9.3
Singapore
31.7
31.8
40.0
-0.6
3.8
Fiji
30.5
30.5
34.2
1.2
2.3
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.


'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The January 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% higher than December 2016.
      2 The January 2017 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than December 2016.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
What If ...? Revisions to STRD Trend Estimates, Australia


The figure of 2.4% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimates changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.