ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in July 2008 was a deficit of $34m, a decrease of $67m on the revised deficit in June 2008.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in July 2008 was a deficit of $717m, a turnaround of $1,068m on the revised surplus in June 2008.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $330m (1%) between June and July to $23,095m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $173m (1%) to $22,880m. Non-rural goods fell $665m (4%) and rural goods fell $79m (3%), while other goods rose $577m (55%). Services credits fell $8m.


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $7m to $2,297m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $79m (3%) to $2,194m.

The components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $109m (18%)
• other rural, down $8m (1%).

Partly offsetting these were:

• wool and sheepskins, up $26m (14%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $12m (2%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods fell $30m (1%) to $2,160m.

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $272m (2%) to $14,917m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $665m (4%) to $14,486m.

Components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, down $356m (9%)
• other non-rural, down $179m (18%)
• other mineral fuels, down $155m (8%).

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $496m (3%) to $14,780m.

The adjustments to account for the new contract prices that have not been fully reflected in the Australian Customs Services (ACS) source data continue for both coal and iron ore for April, May and June. In addition, the value of iron ore for July 2008 has been adjusted up $200m. On the recorded trade basis, the value of iron ore and concentrates increased by 22% between June and July 2008 with volumes up 8% and prices up 13%. In the adjusted balance of payments series, the comparable item increased 7%, with volumes up 7%.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, exports of other goods rose $20m (2%) to $1,300m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of other goods rose $577m (55%) to $1,627m with non-monetary gold, up $562m (64%).

In original terms, exports of other goods rose $569m (54%) to $1,623m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $44m (1%) to $4,581m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $8m to $4,572m.

Components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transportation services, down $23m (3%)
• other services, down $20m (2%).

Partly offsetting these was:

• travel services, up $35m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $15m (1%) to $2,950m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $263m (1%) between June and July to $23,129m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $895m (4%) to $23,597m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $856m (10%) and other goods rose $262m (30%), while capital goods fell $199m (5%) and consumption goods fell $85m (2%). Services debits rose $60m (1%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $3m to $5,155m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $85m (2%) to $5,113m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• household electrical items, down $75m (13%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., down $42m (3%).

Partly offsetting these were:

• non-industrial transport equipment, up $23m (2%)
• toys, books and leisure goods, up $22m (5%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $517m (11%) to $5,288m.

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $22m (1%) to $4,038m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $199m (5%) to $4,017m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was civil aircraft, down $320m (64%).

Partly offsetting this were:

• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $48m (6%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, up $39m (3%)
• telecommunications equipment, up $35m (8%).

In original terms, imports of capital goods fell $275m (6%) to $4,056m.

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $188m (2%) to $8,726m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $856m (10%) to $9,090m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, up $822m (29%). In original terms, crude petroleum oils increased $498m (32%) with volumes up 25% and refined petroleum oils increased $257m (21%) with volumes up 21%. Contributing to the increase in refined petroleum oils were:

• diesel increased $177m
• fuel oil increased $104m
• gasoline increased $13m.

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $1,286m (16%) to $9,270m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, imports of other goods rose $25m (3%) to $998m.

In both original terms and seasonally adjusted terms, other goods debits rose $262m (30%) to $1,136m. The main components contributing to the rise were goods for processing, up $146m and non-monetary gold, up $94m (13%).


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $26m (1%) to $4,212m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $60m (1%) to $4,241m.

Components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transportation services, up $59m (4%)
• travel services, up $10m (1%).

Partly offsetting these was:

• other services, down $9m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $17m (1%) to $2,187m.