EXPERIMENTAL PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE


IN CURRENT PRICE TERMS


PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE SERIES

The projected series below apply historical realisation ratios to contemporary expectations to convert these to quarterly figures. Trend estimates of resultant quarterly time series of actual and expected expenditure are produced.

The following graphs, with accompanying commentary, show the projected capital expenditure series based on March quarter 2009 data, which includes expected expenditure up to and including the June quarter 2010. Please see paragraphs 29 to 33 of the Explanatory Notes for further details about the methodology and cautionary notes for these series.


TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

Short term (June quarter) and long term (2009-10) expectations reported in the March quarter 2009 have marginally weakened in current price terms relative to the same expectations reported in earlier periods. The increase of the actual trend series has slowed. The projection for the total capital expenditure series suggests a mild decline in the series to end June 2009 and limited growth as the 2009-10 financial year progresses.

BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

The projections for buildings and structures indicate a dip in expenditure in the period to end June 2009 followed by a minimal rise in 2009-10. Expenditure expectations for 2009-10 have weakened considerably since the December survey. The actual trend for buildings and structures is relatively strong and is the main contributor behind the resilience displayed in the projection for total capital expenditure.

EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

Projections of expenditure for equipment, plant and machinery indicate near term weakness and a progressive decline in expenditure in 2009-10. The actual trend in the March 2009 quarter tracked the series projection.

MINING

The Mining industry has experienced high growth since the start of 2005. Short term (June quarter) and long term (2009-10) expectations reported in the March quarter have weakened relative to the same expectations reported in earlier periods. The modelled projections imply that this series will hover around the $9 billion per quarter level through the next quarter and the 2009-10 financial year.

MANUFACTURING

The Manufacturing actual trend series was flat in the March quarter 2009. The model is projecting imminent weakness in the series before some recovery in expenditure from mid 2009-10. Expectations data collected in the March quarter survey for 2009-10 decreased substantially.

OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

The projected trend for the Other selected industries series suggests a sustained decline in quarterly expenditure in the fifteen month period ahead.