ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,361m in July 2010, an increase of $163m on the revised surplus in June 2010.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,888m in July 2010, a decrease of $1,550m on the revised surplus in June 2010.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between June 2010 and July 2010 the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $497m (2%) to $25,836m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $1,191m (4%) to $25,395m. Non-rural goods fell $1,076m (6%) and non-monetary gold fell $219m (15%). Rural goods rose $113m (5%). Services credits fell $15m.


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $81m (3%) to $2,482m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $113m (5%) to $2,580m.

The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $97m (22%)
• other rural, up $29m (3%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $394m (2%) to $17,510m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $1,076m (6%) to $17,220m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, down $704m (16%) on both volumes and prices
• metal ores and minerals, down $499m (7%) on both volumes and prices.

Partly offsetting these decreases were the following components:

• other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages), up $139m (14%)
• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), up $79m (8%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities table at the end of this section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $2m (8%) to $28m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $6m (26%) to $29m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $26m (2%) to $1,497m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, non-monetary gold fell $219m (15%) to $1,241m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits fell $7m to $4,318m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $15m to $4,324m.

The only component contributing to the decrease in the seasonally adjusted estimates was travel services, down $33m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $30m (1%) to $2,929m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between June 2010 and July 2010 the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $335m (1%) to $23,475m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $359m (2%) to $23,507m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $698m (9%) and capital goods rose $4m. Non-monetary gold fell $269m (44%) and consumption goods fell $64m (1%). Services debits fell $9m.


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $44m (1%) to $5,568m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $64m (1%) to $5,513m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• non-industrial transport equipment, down $43m (3%)
• toys, books and leisure goods, down $23m (6%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $66m (2%) to $4,257m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $4m to $4,197m.

The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• ADP equipment, up $59m (8%)
• telecommunications equipment, up $36m (7%).

Partly offsetting these increases were the following components:

• capital goods n.e.s., down $41m (9%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, down $32m (2%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $225m (3%) to $8,297m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $698m (9%) to $8,732m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other merchandise goods, up $477m. The Department of Defence imported six Super Hornets
• organic and inorganic chemicals, up $68m (18%)
• other parts for capital goods, up $58m (5%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the fuels and lubricants component, down $80m (3%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $29m (4%) to $628m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, non-monetary gold fell $269m (44%) to $348m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $28m (1%) to $4,724m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $9m to $4,718m.

The components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• transport services, down $16m (1%)
• travel services, down $6m.

Partly offsetting these decreases was an increase in the other services component, up $8m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $14m (1%) to $2,451m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Price and volume analysis: Recorded Trade Basis(a)
		Feb 2010	Mar 2010	Apr 2010	May 2010	Jun 2010	Jul 2010
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Volumes	-8	12	-9	5	-3	2
	Price	17	-2	42	9	6	np
Fines
	Volumes	-9	7	5	-3	10	-7
	Price	16	-	38	13	5	np
Coal
Hard coking
	Volumes	-26	1	41	2	9	-27
	Price	4	5	12	13	5	np
Semi-soft
	Volumes	-14	-7	15	11	-2	-1
	Price	2	-3	28	20	9	np
Bituminous (Thermal)
	Volumes	-16	-4	22	-9	15	3
	Price	4	-1	3	12	4	np
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
np not available for publication but included in totals where applicable, unless otherwise indicated
(a) The equivalent Balance of Payments series includes adjustments which impact on percentage change of prices for June 2010. For more information see the section, Commodity prices adjustment for details.

Between June and July 2010 exports of hard coking coal decreased $743m (33%) on a recorded trade basis (without the balance of payments price adjustment). Exports to India decreased $329m (47%) and to China decreased $135m (77%).