ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,056m in May 2018, an increase of $83m on the surplus in April 2018.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $827m in May 2018, an increase of $355m on the surplus in April 2018.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Mar 2018	Apr 2018	May 2018	May 2018	May 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				1 141	472	827	355	75
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			34 853	34 209	35 562	1 353	4
		Total goods		27 719	27 020	28 298	1 278	5
			Rural goods(b)	3 968	3 998	3 994	-4	-
			Non-rural goods(b)	21 926	21 489	22 427	938	4
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	1	4	4	-	-
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 824	1 530	1 873	343	22
		Total services		7 134	7 189	7 264	75	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-33 712	-33 737	-34 735	998	3
		Total goods		-25 919	-25 906	-26 881	975	4
			Consumption goods	-8 704	-8 480	-8 951	471	6
			Capital goods	-6 097	-6 219	-6 121	-98	-2
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 406	-10 599	-11 058	459	4
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-712	-608	-750	142	23
		Total services		-7 792	-7 831	-7 854	23	-
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				829	973	1 056	83	9
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			34 651	35 043	35 322	279	1
		Total goods		27 490	27 846	28 092	246	1
			Rural goods(b)	3 853	3 935	4 011	76	2
			Non-rural goods(b)	21 863	22 138	22 290	152	1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	2	2	1	-1	-50
			Non-monetary gold	1 772	1 772	1 789	17	1
		Total services		7 160	7 197	7 230	33	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-33 822	-34 071	-34 266	195	1
		Total goods		-26 035	-26 244	-26 409	165	1
			Consumption goods	-8 731	-8 745	-8 755	10	-
			Capital goods	-6 168	-6 188	-6 192	4	-
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 539	-10 654	-10 753	99	1
			Non-monetary gold	-598	-656	-710	54	8
		Total services		-7 787	-7 827	-7 857	30	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between April and May 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $279m (1%) to $35,322m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $1,353m (4%) to $35,562m. Non-rural goods rose $938m (4%) and non-monetary gold rose $343m (22%). Rural goods fell $4m. Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $4m. Services credits rose $75m (1%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Mar 2018	Apr 2018	May 2018	May 2018	May 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				27 719	27 020	28 298	1 278	5
	General merchandise			25 894	25 486	26 421	935	4
		Rural goods		3 968	3 998	3 994	-4	-
			Meat and meat preparations	1 051	1 099	1 148	49	4
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	734	647	661	14	2
			Wool and sheepskins	374	366	408	42	11
			Other rural(a)	1 809	1 886	1 778	-108	-6
		Non-rural goods		21 926	21 489	22 427	938	4
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	7 899	7 650	7 972	322	4
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	5 467	5 214	5 512	298	6
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	3 689	3 712	4 037	325	9
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	906	959	911	-48	-5
			Machinery	875	886	918	32	4
			Transport equipment	315	342	310	-32	-9
			Other manufactures	1 731	1 741	1 788	47	3
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	882	826	819	-7	-1
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	162	158	160	2	1
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			1	4	4	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(e)			1 824	1 530	1 873	343	22
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $76m (2%) to $4,011m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $4m to $3,994m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was other rural, down $108m (6%).

Partly offsetting this fall were:

• meat and meat preparations, up $49m (4%)
• wool and sheepskins, up $42m (11%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $152m (1%) to $22,290m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $938m (4%) to $22,427m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other mineral fuels, up $325m (9%)
• metal ores and minerals, up $322m (4%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, up $298m (6%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (50%) to $1m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $4m.


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $17m (1%) to $1,789m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $343m (22%) to $1,873m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Mar 2018	Apr 2018	May 2018	May 2018	May 2018
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			7 134	7 189	7 264	75	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		-	2	2	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		4	2	2	-	-
	Transport		607	603	605	2	-
		Passenger(b)	243	241	243	2	1
		Freight(c)	23	24	24	-	-
		Other	223	219	217	-2	-1
		Postal and courier services(d)	118	118	120	2	2
	Travel		4 561	4 611	4 673	62	1
	Other services		1 962	1 971	1 981	10	1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		4 804	4 852	4 917	65	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $33m to $7,230m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $75m (1%) to $7,264m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $62m (1%)
• other services, up $10m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $65m (1%) to $4,917m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 20% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between April and May 2018, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $195m (1%) to $34,266m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $998m (3%) to $34,735m. Consumption goods rose $471m (6%), intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $459m (4%) and non-monetary gold rose $142m (23%). Capital goods fell $98m (2%). Services debits rose $23m.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Mar 2018	Apr 2018	May 2018	May 2018	May 2018
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-25 919	-25 906	-26 881	975	4
	General merchandise			-25 207	-25 298	-26 131	833	3
		Consumption goods		-8 704	-8 480	-8 951	471	6
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 228	-1 205	-1 283	78	6
			Household electrical items	-518	-516	-538	22	4
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-2 186	-2 050	-2 099	49	2
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 537	-1 509	-1 611	102	7
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-564	-583	-612	29	5
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 672	-2 618	-2 809	191	7
		Capital goods		-6 097	-6 219	-6 121	-98	-2
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-2 106	-2 051	-2 063	12	1
			ADP equipment	-878	-1 010	-910	-100	-10
			Telecommunications equipment	-1 062	-999	-1 071	72	7
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-364	-480	-432	-48	-10
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-1 129	-1 158	-1 148	-10	-1
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-557	-520	-496	-24	-5
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-10 406	-10 599	-11 058	459	4
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-152	-139	-150	11	8
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-164	-243	-112	-131	-54
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-2 977	-3 178	-3 317	139	4
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 018	-1 017	-1 142	125	12
			Parts for ADP equipment	-67	-56	-59	3	5
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 501	-1 541	-1 572	31	2
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-298	-283	-311	28	10
			Paper and paperboard	-197	-200	-200	-	-
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-125	-120	-131	11	9
			Iron and steel	-351	-373	-356	-17	-5
			Plastics	-373	-357	-409	52	15
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-3 025	-2 954	-3 142	188	6
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-38	-23	-41	18	78
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-120	-116	-116	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-712	-608	-750	142	23
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $10m to $8,755m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $471m (6%) to $8,951m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• consumption goods n.e.s., up $191m (7%)
• textiles, clothing and footwear, up $102m (7%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $78m (6%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $4m to $6,192m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $98m (2%) to $6,121m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• ADP equipment, down $100m (10%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, down $48m (10%)
• capital goods n.e.s., down $24m (5%).

Partly offsetting these falls was telecommunications equipment, up $72m (7%).


INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $99m (1%) to $10,753m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $459m (4%) to $11,058m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $188m (6%)
• fuels and lubricants, up $139m (4%)
• parts for transport equipment, up $125m (12%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $54m (8%) to $710m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $142m (23%) to $750m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Mar 2018	Apr 2018	May 2018	May 2018	May 2018
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-7 792	-7 831	-7 854	23	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-47	-57	-32	-25	-44
	Transport		-1 540	-1 530	-1 578	48	3
		Passenger(c)	-626	-645	-635	-10	-2
		Freight	-833	-802	-860	58	7
		Other(b)	-70	-70	-70	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-12	-13	-13	-	-
	Travel		-3 842	-3 903	-3 898	-5	-
	Other services		-2 363	-2 341	-2 346	5	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related service debits(f)		-4 468	-4 548	-4 533	-15	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $30m to $7,857m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $23m to $7,854m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was transport, up $48m (3%).

Partly offsetting this rise was maintenance and repair services n.i.e., down $25m (44%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $15m to $4,533m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 23% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in
		Dec 2017	Jan 2018	Feb 2018	Mar 2018	Apr 2018	May 2018
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	10	-16	-2	10	2	4
	Unit value	2	1	7	-2	-3	-4
Fines
	Quantity	16	-17	-3	9	6	8
	Unit value	7	7	3	-4	-6	-2
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	16	-	-16	9	-10	25
	Unit value	2	10	p4	1	p-10	p1
Semi-soft
	Quantity	34	-13	-11	2	-17	20
	Unit value	5	-1	8	p6	3	p -
Thermal
	Quantity	12	-8	-8	7	7	-7
	Unit value	-1	-1	4	1	-5	p2
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	2	6	-7	3	-1	-7
	Unit value	4	5	8	1	3	4
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Home Affairs and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between April and May 2018 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, down $6m, with quantities up 4% and unit values down 4%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $41m (4%), with quantities up 2% and unit values down 6%
• India rose $32m, following no exports in April 2018.

Iron ore fines, up $222m (6%), with quantities up 8% and unit values down 2%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $169m (5%), with quantities up 9% and unit values down 3%
• Japan rose $82m (43%), with quantities up 40% and unit values up 2%
• India fell $33m, with no exports in May 2018.

Hard coking coal, up $535m (27%), with quantities up 25% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $327m (70%), with quantities up 68% and unit values up 1%
• Japan rose $184m (68%), with quantities up 75% and unit values down 4%.

Semi-soft coal, up $151m (20%), with quantities up 20%. Exports to:

• the Republic of Korea rose $40m (28%), with quantities up 20% and unit values up 7%
• Vietnam rose $39m, following no exports in April 2018
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $35m (43%), with quantities up 56% and unit values down 9%
• Taiwan rose $34m (97%), with quantities up 90% and unit values up 4%.

Thermal coal, down $93m (5%), with quantities down 7% and unit values up 2%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwain) fell $160m (30%), with quantities down 30%
• Philippines fell $26m, with no exports in May 2018
• India rose $54m, with unit values down 1%
• the Republic of Korea rose $36m (19%), with quantities up 20% and unit values down 1%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), down $114m (4%), with quantities down 7% and unit values up 4%.


COUNTRY BREAKDOWN

The following charts show Australia's major trading partners for the calendar year 2017. The charts include both trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis). The first chart shows the countries with the largest two-way trade, i.e., combined trade in both exports and imports of goods and services. The second chart shows total exports and total imports for each of these countries.

Combining trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis) provides a good approximation of total trade. Some components will be excluded (e.g. merchanting credits and goods procured in ports by carriers debits) while the manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others component will be double counted. These components are unlikely to impact on the broader analysis.

Exports data in goods with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14a. In 2017, these restrictions represented 1.91% of the total exports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

Imports data in goods with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14b. In 2017, these restrictions represented 5.25% of the total imports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

For further details about these restrictions see Explanatory Notes paragraphs 26 to 28.