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APPENDIX 3 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the series. In most cases, the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.

The following graphs are provided to illustrate variations in the seasonally adjusted and trend series for selected countries. These graphs cover the ten-year period December 2005 to December 2015.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graph for France shows steady growth from 2005 to 2009 with monthly fluctuations. However, in April 2010, the seasonally adjusted series fell suddenly at the time of the volcanic eruptions in Iceland, which closed major airports in Europe for one week. An increase in short-term visitor arrivals from France is recorded in May 2014. This is likely a result of the France versus Australia Rugby Union tour held in early June. The July 2008 spike shown in short-term visitor arrivals from Germany is a result of World Youth Day celebrations held in Australia. A large decrease has been recorded in seasonally adjusted short-term visitor arrivals from Germany in June 2014. It can be reasonably assumed that this was caused by Germans choosing to spend their holidays in Brazil for the FIFA World Cup, rather than Australia. The seasonally adjusted series in the third graph shows a large increase in short-term visitor arrivals from the United Kingdom in June 2013. This was caused by the British and Irish Lions Rugby Union tour of Australia.

FRANCE, Short-term Visitor Arrivals




GERMANY, Short-term Visitor Arrivals



UNITED KINGDOM, Short-term Visitor Arrivals

Analysis of short-term resident departures to Egypt shows the introduction of a break to the series in February 2011. This is necessitated by the sustained decrease in travel there due to ongoing political instability in the region. A trend break at December 2006 has been applied to the graph of resident departures to Indonesia due to movements returning to levels closer to those recorded prior to the bombings. An increase in the number of short-term resident departures to Brazil is shown in June 2014, this was caused by the FIFA World Cup held there. A decrease in the number of short-term resident departures to Indonesia is shown in November 2015, this was caused by the disruption of air travel to and from Bali due to a volcanic ash cloud.

Breaks in the series for Brazil and Indonesia have been inserted at April 2009. These breaks are associated with the increase in movements that coincided with the introduction of initiatives to combat the Global Financial Crisis. Such initiatives included the Australian Government stimulus packages of October 2008 and February 2009 and cut-price air fares and travel packages. Additionally, travel from Australia has continued to benefit from the high Australian dollar. These impacts were not apparent when analysing departures to some countries, including Egypt. Consequently a trend break correction was not necessary for this series. For further information for breaks in trend series see Explanatory Notes Paragraph 26.

EGYPT, Short-term Resident Departures(a)

INDONESIA, Short-term Resident Departures(a)

BRAZIL, Short-term Resident Departures(a)