ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in March 2008 was a deficit of $2,790m, an increase of $128m (5%) on the revised deficit in February 2008.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in March 2008 was a deficit of $2,736m, a decrease of $525m (16%) on the revised deficit in February 2008.

The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to March 2008 was a deficit of $8,424m, an increase of $1,814m on the deficit of $6,610m for the three months to December 2007. However, if the seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the March quarter 2008 deficit was $8,019m, an increase of $1,459m on the revised December quarter 2007 deficit of $6,560m.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $172m (1%) between February and March to $19,042m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $816m (4%) to $19,176m. Non-rural goods rose $858m (8%) and rural goods rose $122m (6%) while other goods fell $201m (15%). Services credits rose $36m (1%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

The trend estimate of rural goods exports rose $40m (2%) to $2,215m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $122m (6%) to $2,258m.

Components rising in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $56m (12%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $40m (8%)
• other rural, up $33m (3%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $254m (12%) to $2,395m.

Non-rural goods

In trend terms, non-rural goods rose $104m (1%) to $11,441m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $858m (8%) to $11,645m.

Components rising in seasonally adjusted terms included:

• metal ores and minerals, up $471m (16%)
• coal, coke, and briquettes, up $341m (23%)
• other manufactures, up $79m (6%)
• other non-rural, up $70m (7%).

Partly offsetting these were:

• transport equipment, down $60m (12%)
• machinery, down $35m (5%).

In original terms, non-rural goods rose $1,768m (17%) to $11,931m.

The main movements in the original series contributing to seasonally adjusted series were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $815m (30%), compared to an average of 5% increase for the same month in the previous three years with:
  • non-agglomerated iron ore, up $438m (35%) with volumes up 30% and prices up 4%
  • copper ore, up $212m (77%) with volumes up 79% and prices down 1%.
• coal, coke and briquettes, up $445m (31%), compared to an average of 11% increase for the same month in the previous three years with:
  • metallurgical coal, up $276m (35%) with volumes up 26% and prices up 7%
  • non-metallurgical coal, up $202m (34%) with volumes up 20% and prices up 12%.
• other manufacturers, up $166m (13%) with medicinal and pharmaceutical products, up $62m (25%).

Other goods

In trend terms, other goods rose by $27m (2%) to $1,287m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of other goods fell $201m (15%) to $1,151m with non-monetary gold, down $190m (16%).

In original terms, exports of other goods fell $201m (15%) to $1,149m.


Exports of Services


In trend terms, services credits rose $1m to $4,098m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose by $36m (1%) to $4,122m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel services, up $23m (1%)
• transportation services, up $12m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $52m (2%) to $2,614m. This series is seasonally adjusted independently to the components in services credits.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $299m (1%) between February and March to $21,832m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $291m (1%) to $21,912m. Capital goods rose $156m (4%), consumption goods rose $126m (2%), intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $81m (1%) while other goods fell $118m (14%). Services debits rose $46m (1%).

Preliminary analysis shows that, in seasonally adjusted terms, goods imports volumes increased about 4.2% during the March quarter 2008 and the implicit price deflator rose 3.0%. In original terms, the Chain Laspeyres price index rose about 2.9% while the implicit price deflator rose 3.8%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the March quarter 2008 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (5302.0).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of consumption goods rose $59m (1%) to $5,214m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $126m (2%) to $5,237m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• non industrial transport equipment, up $137m (9%)
• consumption goods nes, up $49m (3%).

Partly offsetting these were:

• household electrical items, down $30m (7%)
• textiles, clothing and footwear, down $19m (3%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods fell $210m (4%) to $4,619m.

CAPITAL GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods rose $91m (2%) to $4,037m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $156m (4%) to $4,162m.

The only component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was machinery and industrial equipment, up $232m (17%).

Partly offsetting this were:

• civil aircraft, down $25m (6%)
• ADP equipment, down $23m (4%).

In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $422m (12%) to $4,062m.

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $110m (1%) to $7,767m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $81m (1%) to $7,754m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $182m (7%)
• processed industrial supplies nes, up $142m (9%).

Partly offsetting these were:

• other merchandise goods, down $96m (45%)
• other parts for capital goods, down $92m (9%).

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $16m to $7,561m.

OTHER GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of other goods rose $30m (4%) to $809m.

In both original and seasonally adjusted terms, other goods debits fell $118m (14%) to $746m largely contributed by non-monetary gold, down $73m (11%).


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $8m to $4,004m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $46m (1%) to $4,013m.

All components contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates with:

• transportation services, up $33m (2%)
• other services, up $8m (1%)
• travel services, up $5m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $44m (2%) to $2,073m. This series is seasonally adjusted independently to the components in services debits.


Country breakdown for the year 2007

The following charts show Australia's major trading partners for calendar year 2007. The charts include both trade in goods (on a recorded trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis). The first chart shows the countries with the largest two-way trade i.e combined trade in both exports and imports of goods and services. The second chart shows separately total exports and total imports, for the ten countries in the first chart.