ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,174m in March 2014, an increase of $243m (26%) on the surplus in February 2014.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $731m in March 2014, a decrease of $526m (42%) on the surplus in February 2014.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to March 2014 was a surplus of $3,110m, a turnaround of $4,188m on the deficit of $1,078m for the three months to December 2013. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary March quarter 2014 surplus was $2,723m, a turnaround of $3,696m on the revised December quarter 2013 deficit of $973m.

Revised quarterly estimates will be included in Balance of Payments - Goods and Services, Preliminary Quarterly Estimates (cat. no. 5302.0.55.004) and Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February and March 2014, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $316m (1%) to $29,511m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $547m (2%) to $29,033m. Non-rural goods fell $578m (3%) and non-monetary gold fell $56m (4%). Rural goods rose $47m (1%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (7%). Services credits rose $40m (1%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $77m (2%) to $3,666m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $47m (1%) to $3,583m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was other rural, up $56m (4%).

Partly offsetting this rise was the wool and sheepskins component, down $17m (7%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $230m (1%) to $19,747m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $578m (3%) to $19,370m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was metal ores and minerals, down $548m (6%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (7%) to $14m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (7%) to $16m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $8m (1%) to $1,220m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $56m (4%) to $1,197m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $18m to $4,864m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $40m (1%) to $4,867m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $39m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $39m (1%) to $3,086m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February and March 2014, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $73m to $28,337m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $21m to $28,302m. Capital goods fell $119m (2%), consumption goods fell $48m (1%) and non-monetary gold fell $41m (12%). Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $224m (2%). Services debits fell $36m (1%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $32m to $6,900m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $48m (1%) to $6,838m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was non-industrial transport equipment, down $69m (4%).

Partly offsetting this fall was the consumption goods n.e.s. component, up $26m (1%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $8m to $5,285m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $119m (2%) to $5,336m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was capital goods n.e.s., down $253m (22%).

Partly offsetting this fall was the machinery and industrial equipment component, up $93m (5%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $33m to $9,931m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $224m (2%) to $9,947m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other merchandise goods, up $108m (720%)
• fuels and lubricants, up $85m (2%)
• primary industrial supplies n.e.s., up $84m (61%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $4m (1%) to $313m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $41m (12%) to $315m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits fell $5m to $5,908m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $36m (1%) to $5,867m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, down $38m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $32m (1%) to $2,993m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: International merchandise trade basis (a) - Original terms
		Change in
		Oct 2013	Nov 2013	Dec 2013	Jan 2014	Feb 2014	Mar 2014
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore(b)
Lump
	Quantity	9	-5	14	-18	12	6
	Unit value	-5	2	4	3	-2	np
Fines
	Quantity	-	-3	7	-10	1	21
	Unit value	-4	2	6	-	-5	np
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	8	-3	-3	2	-17	23
	Unit value	-	5	-	-	-1	2
Semi-soft
	Quantity	11	-20	13	-14	-9	12
	Unit value	-1	2	5	-1	-3	-2
Thermal
	Quantity	12	-12	31	-20	5	-7
	Unit value	-4	-	5	2	-1	-3
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
np not available for publication
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.
(b) Unit value for the latest month have been suppressed due to the size of the iron ore value adjustment.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnotes in the above table), between February and March 2014 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Quantities of iron ore lump exported rose 6%, with quantities to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) up 9%
• Japan down 17%
• the Republic of Korea up 28%.

Quantities of iron ore fines exported rose 21%, with quantities to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) up 27%
• the Republic of Korea up 12%
• Taiwan down 35%.

Hard coking coal rose $291m (25%), with quantities up 23% and unit values up 2%.
Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $226m (114%), with quantities up 101% and unit values up 6%
• Japan rose $70m (34%), with quantities up 30% and unit values up 3%.

Semi-soft coal rose $52m (10%), with quantities up 12% and unit values down 2%.
Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $107m (168%), with quantities up 178% and unit values down 4%.

Partly offsetting this rise was exports to the Republic of Korea, down $71m (47%), with quantities down 49% and unit values up 4%.

Thermal coal fell $143m (10%), with quantities down 7% and unit values down 3%.
Exports to:

• Japan fell $178m (25%), with quantities down 23% and unit values down 4%.

Partly offsetting this fall was exports to Taiwan, up $40m (31%), with quantities up 28% and unit values up 2%.