4102.0 - Australian Social Trends, 1994
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 27/05/1994
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Population Projections: Projections of the aged population
Population growth Under Series A assumptions, Australia's population is projected to grow by about 40% in the 48-year period 1993-2041, to reach a total of 25 million. There are large variations between the States and Territories in projected growth rates. Queensland is projected to experience the greatest proportional increase in population (88%) and to overtake Victoria as the second most populous State by 2031. Western Australia's population, which overtook South Australia's in 1983, is projected to increase by 66% and to outnumber South Australia's by 1.1 million in 2041. The population of the Australian Capital Territory is projected to increase by 81% and to overtake Tasmania's population by 2041. The Northern Territory is also projected to experience strong growth (75%) in the 1993-2041 period. The fastest growing States and Territories will also experience the greatest growth in their aged populations. The aged populations in Queensland and Western Australia are expected to more than treble, in the Australian Capital Territory to increase five-fold and in the Northern Territory, eight-fold. This rapid growth is from a relatively low base, however, particularly in the Territories which have the youngest age profiles. In 2041 the aged will therefore still represent a relatively small proportion of the total population in the fastest growing States and Territories. PROJECTED GROWTH OF THE POPULATION (SERIES A)
Dependency ratios By the year 2026 the number of aged persons will exceed the number of children. The aged dependency ratio is projected (under series A assumptions) to increase fairly slowly, from 0.18 in 1993 to 0.21 in 2011, then more rapidly to 0.36 in 2041. During this period the child dependency ratio is expected to decline until 2011 and then to stabilise at around 0.29. The decrease in the child dependency ratio implies a decrease in outlays on children's services. However, this will do little to offset the likely increase in outlays associated with ageing, particularly on health services and income support, which are much higher than the outlays associated with children1. In 1993 South Australia had the highest aged dependency ratio (0.20) followed by Tasmania (0.19), New South Wales and Victoria (both 0.18). In 2041 aged dependency ratios are expected to be highest in Tasmania (0.43), South Australia (0.42), and Victoria (0.40) (see Population - State summary tables). PROJECTED DEPENDENCY RATIOS (SERIES A) Source: Population Projections, 1993-2041: Series A; Estimated Resident Population The aged population The aged population is expected (under series A assumptions) to grow from 2.1 million in 1993 to 5.5 million in 2041, increasing as a proportion of the total population from 12% in 1993 to 22% in 2041. The largest increases (of about 98,000 a year) are projected to occur during 2011-31 as survivors of the 'baby boom' generation (born in the late 1940s to 1960s) reach retirement age. The number of persons aged 85 years and over is projected to increase by an average of 10,000 a year until 2026 (except during 2016-21 when the very low birth rates of the 1930s depression are echoed in this cohort), and then by an average of 26,000 a year during 2026-41. Women have a longer life expectancy than men (see Health - National summary tables) and therefore outnumber men in the older age groups. In 1993 there were 76 men for every 100 women aged 65 years and over. By 2041 the aged sex ratio is expected to be 79, reflecting a prospective reduction in the gap between male and female life expectancy. For persons aged 85 years and over the sex ratio is projected to increase from 42 in 1993 to 50 in 2041. In 2041 women are expected to be 56% of the aged population and 67% of persons aged 85 years and over. South Australia has the oldest age structure of all States and Territories, a situation expected to remain unchanged well into the next century. By 2041, the aged are projected to represent 25% of the State's population, and children 15%. The aged are also projected to represent 25% of Tasmanians, and children 16%. In both States persons age 85 years and over are projected to account for over 4% of the population compared to the national average of 3.5%. Victoria's population is also expected to have a relatively old age profile in 2041 while New South Wales will remain close to the national average. PROJECTED AGED AS A PROPORTION OF THE POPULATION (SERIES A) Source: Population Projections, 1993-2041: Series A; Estimated Resident Population AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE PROJECTED POPULATION (SERIES A), 2041
Endnotes 1 Household Expenditure Survey, Australia: the Effects of Government Benefits and Taxes on Household Income (6537.0).
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