Household and Family Projections, Australia

Latest release

Household and family projections (based on different assumptions of living arrangements) for Australia, states and territories and capital cities

Reference period
2021 - 2046

Key statistics

  • The number of households is projected to increase from 10.0 million in 2021 to between 13.3 and 13.9 million in 2046.
  • The number of families is projected to increase from 7.2 million to between 9.5 and 9.7 million. 
  • Living with a partner is projected to remain the most common living arrangement. 

Projections are not predictions or forecasts. They are an illustration of what would happen if certain assumptions about the future living arrangements of Australia's population were to persist over the projection period. These projections do not attempt to make predictions about future changes in behaviour or in non-demographic factors such as economic changes.

About this data

The household estimates and projections in this publication cover the period 2021 to 2046 for Australia, the states and territories and capital cities and rest of state regions. The projections of households, families and persons by living arrangement are based on the medium series population projections from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) - 2071.

Three series are presented in this publication. These are based on three different assumptions for living arrangement propensities over the projection period:

  • series I assumes no change from 2021 living arrangement propensity,
  • series II assumes the historical rate of change in propensities from 2006 to 2021 but gradually plateauing,
  • series III assumes the historical rate of change in propensities from 2006 to 2021 continuing.
     

Summary of projections

Household projections

In 2046, there are projected to be between 13.3 million and 13.9 million households in Australia (up from 10.0 million in 2021).

  • Family households are projected to remain the most common household type in Australia, at 68% to 70% of all household in 2046.
  • Lone person households are projected to make up 26% to 28% of all Australian households in 2046.
  • Group households are projected to make up 4% to 5% of all households in 2046.
     

 

Projected households, Australia
 2021204620462046
Household type Series ISeries IISeries III
 '000'000'000'000
Family households6,950.79,465.69,367.59,221.1
Group households405.7506.4543.7608.5
Lone person households2,637.53,962.43,793.53,435.8
Total households9,993.913,934.413,704.613,265.3

Family projections

In 2046, there are projected to be between 9.5 million and 9.7 million families in Australia (up from 7.2 million in 2021).

  • Couples with children are projected to make up 42% to 43% of all families in 2046; down slightly from 44% in 2021.
  • Couples without children are projected to be the second most common family type, at 38% to 40% in 2046 (39% in 2021).
  • Female lone parent families are projected to make up 13% to 14% of all families in 2046 (compared to 13% in 2021).
  • Male lone parent families are projected to increase the fastest of any family type, increasing by between 40% to 69% by 2046.
     
Projected families, Australia
Family type2021204620462046
 Series ISeries IISeries III
'000'000'000'000
Couple family with children 3,117.64,062.54,080.84,072.3
Couple family without children 2,763.73,925.93,799.23,602.9
One parent families 1,150.11,590.71,605.71,672.6
 Male parent225.2315.1339.5381.6
 Female parent924.91,275.71,266.21,291.0
Other family 118.7157.4150.2137.9
Total families 7,150.19,736.69,635.99,485.7

Types of living arrangements

In 2046, there are projected to be 34 million people in Australia (up from 26 million in 2021).

  • Living with a partner is projected to be the most common living arrangement in 2046, at 45% to 47% of all persons (46% in 2021).
  • Over a quarter (27% to 28%) of Australia's population are projected to live as children in a family household in 2046.
  • Between 3.4 and 4.0 million Australians are projected to be living alone in 2046.
     
Projected persons, by living arrangement, Australia
Living arrangement2021204620462046
 Series ISeries IISeries III
'000'000'000'000
Couple family with children     
 Husband, wife or partner6,235.38,125.08,161.58,144.6
 Child5,999.76,952.27,081.77,261.4
 Other related individual169.8251.5280.0338.3
Couple family without children     
 Husband, wife or partner5,527.37,851.97,598.57,205.7
 Other related individual99.2151.7160.6181.1
One parent families     
 Male parent225.2315.1339.5381.6
 Female parent924.91,275.71,266.21,291.0
 Child1,765.62,085.02,165.92,317.3
 Other related individual116.5168.5189.6230.1
Other families     
 Related person living in an other family251.1333.2317.7291.8
 Unrelated individual living in a family household330.6416.3502.7705.7
Lone person households     
 Male lone person1,185.51,693.51,657.91,566.6
 Female lone person1,452.02,268.92,135.61,869.1
Group household member 928.61,185.31,272.81,424.2
Usual resident of a non-private dwelling 474.0818.6762.1683.8
Total 25,685.433,892.333,892.333,892.3

Assumptions

Projected numbers of households and families are based on the number of persons projected to be living in particular household relationships, or living arrangements.

This publication contains three series of projections. Each series reflects a different assumption about future change in peoples' living arrangements. Living arrangement information from the last four Censuses (2006, 2011, 2016, 2021) are used to set the assumptions.

These assumptions are intended to illustrate a range of possible future outcomes. There is no certainty that any particular outcome will be realised, or that future outcomes will necessarily fall within these ranges.

Projection series, assumptions used


The graph below illustrates the 3 assumptions using hypothetical data:

  • series I is no change from 2021
  • series II levels off in 2036
  • series III continues the change (observed in 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021) out to 2046

Projection method

The assumptions are calculated by five year age groups and by 15 living arrangement types. These assumptions are calculated separately for Australia, each state and territory, and each capital city and rest of state area.

Projected living arrangement proportions for 2022 to 2046 are then applied to the 'medium series' projected population from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) - 2071. This gives the projected number of persons in each living arrangement. The projections for smaller areas were adjusted so that the totals sum to the Australia level projection. The use of a different underlying population is explored in the page 'What if...'.

Numbers of households and families are then derived from the projected living arrangements of the population.

For more detail on the method behind these projections, see the Technical Note - 'Method'.

Recent trends

Couples with children

Around half the Australian population was living in a couple family with children between 2001 and 2021. This was the most common living arrangement.

In 2021:

  • 48% of Australians lived in a couple family with children.
  • 24% were partners, 23% were children.
     

In 2001:

  • 52% of Australians lived in a couple family with children.
  • 26% were partners, 26% were children.
     

Couples without children

People living in couple-only families (without children) increased from 20% in 2001 to 22% in 2021, but there were different patterns for different age groups.

Between 2001 and 2021, the proportion of people living in couple-only families:

  • Increased among 25–34 year olds (from 23% to 28% of this age group).
  • Decreased among 45–59 year olds (from 30% to 21% of this age group).
  • Increased among people aged 75 years and over (from 38% to 45% of this age group) – due to males living longer.
     

One parent families

The proportion of people living in one parent families remained around 12% between 2001 and 2021.

In 2021 one in five (20%) lone parents were male (17% in 2001).

Group households

Group households increased from 3% to 4% of Australia's population between 2001 to 2021.

In 2001:

  • Almost one in four group household members (23%) were aged 50 or over – up from 16% in 2001.
  • The average group household size was 2.3 people (2.0 in 2001).
     

Living alone

The proportion of people living alone increased from 9% in 2001 to 10% in 2021.

Under age 55, most people living alone were men (55% in 2021, down from 59% in 2001), but over age 55 most people living alone were women (62% in 2021, down from 68% in 2001).

Non-private dwellings

Between 2001 and 2021 people who usually lived in non-private dwellings (such as boarding schools, aged care facilities, prisons and workers' accommodation) increased from 1.7% to 1.8% of Australia's population. The boarding house or private hotel population had the largest increase of any non-private dwelling type.

State and territory variations

Trends in living arrangements were similar across the states and territories. Where differences exist, this usually reflects differences in the age structure of the population.

For example,

  • The state with the oldest age structure, Tasmania, had the highest proportion of couples without children.
  • The state with the youngest age structure, the Northern Territory, had the lowest proportion of lone person households (which were mainly older females).
     
Living arrangement, state/territory ranking, 2001
LowestProportion of state/territory (%)HighestProportion of state/territory (%)Proportion of Australia (%)
Couple family with childrenSouth Australia48.7Victoria53.652
Couple family without childrenNorthern Territory16.1South Australia22.120.1
One parent familyVictoria10.9Northern Territory14.411.6
Group household memberTasmania2.7Australian Capital Territory4.23.4
Lone personNorthern Territory6.8South Australia11.39.3
Non-private dwellingsTasmania1.5Northern Territory3.21.7
Living arrangement, state/territory ranking, 2021
LowestProportion of state/territory (%)HighestProportion of state/territory (%)Proportion of Australia (%)
Couple family with childrenTasmania41.3Victoria5048.3
Couple family without childrenNorthern Territory18.1Tasmania25.621.9
One parent familyAustralian Capital Territory9.6Northern Territory14.811.8
Group household memberWestern Australia3Australian Capital Territory4.63.6
Lone personNorthern Territory7.2Tasmania12.210.3
Non-private dwellingsVictoria1.6Northern Territory4.41.8

Households

Total households

Households in Australia are projected to grow from from 10.0 million in 2021 to between 13.3 and 13.9 million in 2046. The Australian population is projected to grow by 32% over that period – from 25.7 to 33.9 million people.

In 2046 there are projected to be between 2.4 and 2.6 people per household on average. This is similar to the 2021 average of 2.6.

Projected households, Australia
 Series ISeries IISeries III
Year(a)'000'000'000
20219,993.99,993.99,993.9
202610,904.210,787.610,787.6
203111,791.911,606.011,544.9
203612,587.012,363.412,204.4
204113,303.013,075.312,779.3
204613,934.413,704.613,265.3

a. As at June 30.

Family households

Family households are projected to:

  • Remain the most common household type in Australia at 68% to 70% of all households in 2046 (similar to 70% in 2021).
  • Increase to between 9.2 and 9.5 million households by 2046 – up from 7.0 million in 2021.
     

Lone person households

Lone person households are projected to:

  • Make up 26% to 28% of all Australian households in 2046 (compared to 26% in 2021).
  • Increase to between 3.4 and 4.0 million households by 2046 – up from 2.6 million in 2021.
     

Group households

Group households are projected to:

  • Make up 3.6% to 4.6% of all households in 2046 (compared to 4.1% in 2021).
  • Increase to between 506,371 and 608,518 households in 2046 – up from 405,672 in 2021.
     

International comparison

Households are projected to grow by 1.5% per year on average in Australia between 2021 and 2031. That is higher than the projection for New Zealand (1.0%) and England (0.7%). There are no official household projections for the culturally similar countries Canada and the USA.

The average household size for Australia was similar to New Zealand in 2021 (2.57 and 2.70 respectively), but this is projected to decrease in Australia (2.55 in 2031). England's household size was smaller (2.36).

Projected growth of households, selected countries
 Projected average annual growth rate, 2021–2031 Projected average household size
Country 20212031
 %personspersons
Australia(a)1.512.572.55
England(b)0.662.362.30
Scotland(c)0.392.122.07
Germany(d)0.131.981.95
New Zealand(e)0.962.702.60
Japan(f)-0.152.242.14

a. 2021-based projections, Series II, current publication.
b. 2018-based projections; Office for National Statistics (United Kingdom).
c. 2018-based projections (principal series); National Records of Scotland.
d. 2019-based projections; Average household size was calculated from published data so may be an underestimation.
e. 2018-based projections (medium projection); Statistics New Zealand. Data is for 2023 and 2033 rather than 2021 and 2031.
f. 2015-based projections; National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (Japan).
 

Families

Families are projected to grow from 7.2 million in 2021 to be between 9.5 and 9.7 million in Australia in 2046. 

There are more families than family households because multiple families can live together in one household. The projected family types are:

  • couples with children
  • couples without children
  • one parent families (male and female)
  • other families.

Other families include other combinations of related individuals such as adult siblings living together.

  • Couples with children are projected to make up 42% to 43% of all families in 2046 – down slightly from 44% in 2021.
  • Couples without children are projected to be the second most common family type in 2046, at 38% to 40% (39% in 2021).
  • Lone female parent families are projected to make up 13% to 14% of all families in 2046 (13% in 2021) and 77% to 80% of all one-parent families (80% in 2021).
  • Lone male parent families are projected to increase the fastest of any family type, increasing by between 40% and 69% (315,081 to 381,604 families) by 2046.
  • Other families are projected to make up 1.5% to 1.6% of all families in 2046 (1.7% in 2021).
     
Projected families, Australia
Family type  At 30 June  
202120262031203620412046
'000'000'000'000'000'000
SERIES I
Couple families with children3,117.63,347.23,551.23,730.63,904.64,062.5
Couple families without children2,763.73,043.93,304.43,535.63,744.03,925.9
One parent families1,150.11,245.91,345.41,438.41,520.01,590.7
 Male parent225.2244.2264.2283.1300.1315.1
 Female parent924.91,001.71,081.21,155.31,219.91,275.7
Other families118.7129.2139.6147.1152.6157.4
Total7,150.17,766.38,340.58,851.79,321.29,736.6
SERIES II
Couple families with children3,117.63,350.03,555.93,737.43,916.34,080.8
Couple families without children2,763.72,977.33,205.63,419.63,624.03,799.2
One parent families1,150.11,244.11,346.21,444.81,531.11,605.7
 Male parent225.2254.6280.9304.2322.9339.5
 Female parent924.9989.51,065.41,140.61,208.21,266.2
Other families118.7125.7133.6139.8145.3150.2
Total7,150.17,697.18,241.48,741.69,216.79,635.9
SERIES III
Couple families with children3,117.63,350.03,556.23,735.33,910.84,072.3
Couple families without children2,763.72,977.33,174.43,344.13,490.03,602.9
One parent families1,150.11,244.11,349.61,459.91,568.61,672.6
 Male parent225.2254.6286.3318.6350.6381.6
 Female parent924.9989.51,063.31,141.31,218.01,291.0
Other families118.7125.7131.7134.9136.5137.9
Total7,150.17,697.18,211.88,674.29,105.89,485.7

Types of living arrangements

Living with a partner

Between 15.4 and 16.0 million people are projected to be living with a partner in 2046 (up from 11.8 million in 2021) – or 45% to 47% of Australians.

In 2046, around half (52%) of people living with a partner are projected to have children living with them as well (down from 53% in 2021).

Living as a lone parent

The number of lone parents is projected to increase from 1.2 million in 2021 to between 1.6 and 1.7 million in 2046.

  • Female lone parents are projected to increase by between 37% and 40%, from 924,898 in 2021 to 1.3 million in 2046.
  • Male lone parents are projected to increase by between 40% and 69%, from 225,212 in 2021 to between 315,081 and 381,604 in 2046.
  • Around four in five lone parents are projected to be female (between 77% and 80% in 2046, compared to 80% in 2021).
     

Living with parents

Just over a quarter (27% to 28%) of Australia's population are projected to live with their parents in 2046, slightly down from 30% in 2021.

Of those living with parents (or parent figures) around three in four (76% to 77%) are projected to be living with two parents and one in four living with one parent in 2046.

Families with children can include children of any age. They may be families with dependent children, students or adult children, while in some families an adult child may be caring for an elderly parent.

Living with other relatives

In 2046, around 2.7% to 3.1% of the population are projected to live with other relatives (2.5% in 2021), such as elderly parents living with their adult child's family or adult siblings living together. That's between 904,945 and 1,041,210 Australians in 2046 (636,667 in 2021).

People living with other relatives are projected to:

  • Decrease for 20–29 year olds, from 27% in 2021 to between 21% and 23% in 2046.
  • Potentially increase for 50–59 year olds, from 11% in 2021 to between 10% and 13% in 2046.
  • Potentially increase for those aged 80 years and over, from 10% in 2021 to between 13% and 17% in 2046.
     

Living alone

Between 3.4 and 4.0 million people are projected to be living alone in 2046 (up from 2.6 million in 2021). That's an increase of between 30% and 50%, mainly because of the ageing population.

  • More than half of all people living alone are women (55% in 2021, and between 54% and 57% in 2046).
  • Under the age of 60, men are more likely to be living alone than women (54% in 2021 and projected to be between 49% and 54% in 2046).
  • Over age 60 years, there are more women then men living alone (64% in 2021 and projected to be between 57% and 65% in 2046), reflecting the higher life expectancy of women.
     

Living in a group household

In 2046, there are projected to be between 1.2 and 1.4 million people in group households (up from 928,569 in 2021). That's an increase of 28% to 53%.

  • Group households make up a small part of the population – projected to be 3% to 4% in 2046 (compared to 4% in 2021).
  • Almost half (48%) of all group household members were in their twenties in 2021, but this is projected to decline to between 42% and 45% in 2046.
  • 8% to 9% of group household members are projected to be aged 70 years and over in 2046, up from 6% in 2021.
     

Living in a non-private dwelling

Between 683,814 and 818,572 people are projected to live in non-private dwellings in 2046, up from 474,013 in 2021. That's an increase of between 44% and 73% – faster than the projected population increase of 32%.

Around one third (between 195,605 and 321,102) of all people projected to be living in non-private dwellings in 2046 are aged 85 years and over, up from 121,441 in 2021. The large majority of elderly people living in non-private dwellings in 2021 were in nursing homes or retirement homes.

Another quarter (between 140,917 and 165,059) are projected to be younger people aged 15–29 in 2046, up from 115,156 in 2021.

In 2021, most people aged 18–24 living in non-private dwellings were in university accommodation.

Projected persons, living arrangement – Australia, at 30 June
Living arrangement202120262031203620412046
'000'000'000'000'000'000
SERIES I
Family households      
 Couple families with children      
  Husband, wife or partner6,235.36,694.47,102.37,461.37,809.28,125.0
  Child5,999.76,363.06,548.36,644.26,779.96,952.2
  Other related individual169.8189.9209.3225.2239.0251.5
 Couple families without children      
  Husband, wife or partner5,527.36,087.86,608.87,071.17,487.97,851.9
  Other related individual99.2110.7123.2134.3143.5151.7
 One parent families      
  Male parent225.2244.2264.2283.1300.1315.1
  Female parent924.91,001.71,081.21,155.31,219.91,275.7
  Child1,765.61,889.21,958.41,995.02,036.02,085.0
  Other related individual116.5129.5141.5151.4160.4168.5
 Other families      
  Related person living in an other family251.1273.5295.4311.3323.0333.2
  Unrelated individuals in an other family330.6354.6378.7396.5407.9416.3
 Total living in families21,645.323,338.624,711.225,828.726,906.827,926.0
Group households      
 Group household member928.6994.41,066.51,122.91,158.21,185.3
Lone person households      
 Male lone person1,185.51,300.71,414.31,517.81,610.91,693.5
 Female lone person1,452.01,629.11,814.21,984.72,136.02,268.9
Usual resident of a non-private dwelling474.0535.8612.4692.6758.4818.6
Total25,685.427,798.529,618.531,146.932,570.333,892.3
SERIES II
Family households      
 Couple families with children      
  Husband, wife or partner6,235.36,700.07,111.87,474.77,832.78,161.5
  Child5,999.76,432.46,653.86,768.26,906.47,081.7
  Other related individual169.8203.2230.7251.4266.2280.0
 Couple families without children      
  Husband, wife or partner5,527.35,954.66,411.26,839.27,248.07,598.5
  Other related individual99.2115.9131.2143.6152.5160.6
 One parent families      
  Male parent225.2254.6280.9304.2322.9339.5
  Female parent924.9989.51,065.41,140.61,208.21,266.2
  Child1,765.61,928.32,022.92,073.62,116.12,165.9
  Other related individual116.5138.5156.3169.9180.2189.6
 Other families      
  Related person living in an other family251.1266.0282.7295.9307.4317.7
  Unrelated individual in an other family330.6394.4443.5477.8492.4502.7
 Total living in families21,645.323,377.424,790.325,939.127,032.928,063.9
Group households      
 Group household member928.61,035.21,130.51,203.31,243.01,272.8
Lone person households      
 Male lone person1,185.51,281.61,383.31,480.81,574.31,657.9
 Female lone person1,452.01,581.51,728.61,871.12,010.52,135.6
Usual resident of a non-private dwelling474.0522.8585.9652.6709.7762.1
Total25,685.427,798.529,618.531,146.932,570.333,892.3
SERIES III
Family households      
 Couple families with children      
  Husband, wife or partner6,235.36,700.07,112.37,470.77,821.68,144.6
  Child5,999.76,432.46,684.36,840.87,033.07,261.4
  Other related individual169.8203.2238.1271.2304.0338.3
 Couple families without children      
  Husband, wife or partner5,527.35,954.66,348.86,688.26,980.07,205.7
  Other related individual99.2115.9134.0150.9166.0181.1
 One parent families      
  Male parent225.2254.6286.3318.6350.6381.6
  Female parent924.9989.51,063.31,141.31,218.01,291.0
  Child1,765.61,928.32,044.22,129.62,219.22,317.3
  Other related individual116.5138.5161.3183.5206.4230.1
 Other families      
  Related person living in an other family251.1266.0278.6285.4288.7291.8
  Unrelated individual in an other family330.6394.4467.1544.4623.4705.7
 Total living in families21,645.323,377.424,818.326,024.527,210.928,348.5
Group households      
 Group household member928.61,035.21,151.51,258.81,346.51,424.2
Lone person households      
 Male lone person1,185.51,281.61,371.71,449.41,514.11,566.6
 Female lone person1,452.01,581.51,698.81,785.31,838.41,869.1
Usual resident of a non-private dwelling474.0522.8578.2628.8660.4683.8
Total25,685.427,798.529,618.531,146.932,570.333,892.3

Age groups

People age 0–14 years

The number of children aged 0–14 years in Australia is projected to increase to 5.3 million in 2046, up from 4.7 million in 2021.

  • Around four in five children are projected to live in couple families in 2046 (82% to 84%, compared to 82% in 2021).
  • Most of the remaining children are projected to live in one parent families (15% to 18%, compared to 18% in 2021).
  • Only a very small number of children are projected to live in non-private dwellings such as boarding schools or hospital accommodation (0.2% to 0.3%, compared to 0.2% in 2021).
     

The proportion of children living in couple families decreases with age, and the proportion living in one parent families increases. In 2046, 87% to 89% of 0–4 year olds are projected to live in couple families, compared to 82% to 84% of 5–9 year olds and 78% to 80% of 10–14 year olds.

People aged 15–29 years

People in this age group move from mainly living as a child in a one or two-parent family at age 15–19, to mainly living with a partner at ages 25–29.

People living as a child in a one or two-parent family in 2046 are projected to make up:

  • Nine in ten teenagers aged 15–19 (90% to 94%).
  • Five to six in ten people aged 20–24 (51% to 58%).
  • Two in ten people aged 25–29 (20% to 23%).
     

In contrast, those living with a partner (with or without children) in 2046 made up:

  • 0% to 1% of 15–19 year olds.
  • 11% to 17% of 20–24 year olds.
  • 36% to 45% of 25–29 year olds.
     

The proportion of 25-29 year olds who are parents living with their child (8% to 18% in 2046) is projected to remain higher than for 20-24 year olds (1% to 5% in 2046).

The proportion of 15-29 year olds who are parents living with their child is projected to decline from 8% in 2021 to between 3% and 8% in 2046, reflecting the continuing trend of women delaying childbirth until their thirties.

Those living as group household members is projected to be similar for 20–24 year olds (12% to 13%) and 25–29 year olds (13% to 17%).

People aged 30–44 years

Most people (49% to 54%) aged 30–44 years are projected to be living as partners with children in 2046. This figure increases with age, from 29% to 40% of 30–34 year olds, to 63% to 64% of 40–44 year olds.

The second most common living arrangement for this age group in 2046 is living as a partner without children (16% to 20%), followed by living alone (7% to 8%).

People aged 45–59 years

Living as partners with children is projected to be the most common living arrangement for 45–59 year olds (48% to 54% in 2046). The proportion decreases for the older age groups, from 60% to 61% of 45–49 year olds, to 35% to 45% of 55–59 year olds.

Lone parents and parents in couple families with children are projected to increase among this age group by 2046 (series II and III), while living as a partner without children is projected to become less common. Series I projects similar proportions in 2046 as in 2021.

People aged 60–74 years

The majority of 60–74 year olds are projected to be living as partners without children (44% to 52% in 2046).

Living alone (20%) is projected to be the next most common living arrangement among this age group in 2046, followed by living as a partner with children (14% to 18%).

The prevalence of living alone increases with age, from 18% of 60–64 year olds to 21% to 23% of 70–74 year olds, reflecting the death of partners at this age.

People aged 75 years and over

People in this age group are projected to move from mainly living as a partner without children at ages 75–79, to mainly living alone at ages 85 years and over.

People living as a partner without children in 2046 is projected to make up:

  • 54% to 62% of 75–79 year olds.
  • 46% to 57% of 80–84 year olds.
  • 25% to 35% of people aged 85 years and over.
     

In contrast, those living alone in 2046 made up:

  • 19% to 26% of 75–79 year olds.
  • 21% to 31% of 80–84 year olds.
  • 31% to 35% of people aged 85 years and over.
     

The likelihood of living in a non-private dwelling increases with age, from 2% to 3% of 75–79 year olds to 14% to 23% of people aged 85 years and over.

States and territories

Capital city and rest of state/territory households

In 2046, 67% of all Australian households are projected to be in capital cities (up from 66% in 2021). All capital cities are projected to experience higher growth in households than the rest of the state/territory, due to higher population growth projected in capital cities.

Fastest growth: Melbourne is projected to have the fastest growth in households – between 47% and 52% by 2046.

Slowest growth: The rest of South Australia (outside Adelaide) is projected to have the slowest growth in households – between 2% and 4% by 2046.

Largest increase: Melbourne is projected to have the largest increase in households – an extra 886,800 to 977,800 households by 2046, reaching between 2.8 and 2.9 million households.

Smallest increase: The rest of South Australia (outside Adelaide) is projected to have the smallest increase in households – an extra 4,000 to 7,500 households by 2046, reaching between 177,700 and 181,300 households.

State/territory highlights

  • In New South Wales the most common living arrangement in 2021 was to be a partner in a couple family (25%).
  • Households and families are projected to increase more slowly in New South Wales than for Australia as a whole.
  • Households and families are projected to increase faster in Victoria than any other state/territory.
  • Tasmania has the lowest proportion of family households and the highest proportion of lone person households.
  • There is a lower proportion of lone person households in the Northern Territory than any other state or territory and a higher proportion of family households.
  • The Northern Territory has the lowest proportion of couple families without children.
  • One parent families are less common in the Australian Capital Territory than any other state or territory, while couple families with children are more common than every state and territory other than Victoria.
     
     
Projected households
Region2021204620462046Increase, 2021-2046Increase, 2021-2046Increase, 2021-2046
 Series ISeries IISeries IIISeries ISeries IISeries III
'000'000'000'000%%%
Greater Sydney1,964.52,701.42,644.72,543.337.534.629.5
Rest of New South Wales1,172.71,577.11,548.81,494.434.532.127.4
Total New South Wales3,137.24,278.44,193.54,037.736.433.728.7
Greater Melbourne1,882.12,859.92,829.32,768.952.050.347.1
Rest of Victoria658.4958.6942.9913.745.643.238.8
Total Victoria2,540.53,818.43,772.23,682.650.348.545.0
Greater Brisbane978.11,412.31,392.61,354.044.442.438.4
Rest of Queensland1,049.31,428.51,403.41,352.136.133.728.9
Total Queensland2,027.42,840.82,796.02,706.240.137.933.5
Greater Adelaide566.7728.6714.3688.528.626.021.5
Rest of South Australia173.7181.3180.5177.74.33.92.3
Total South Australia740.4909.9894.8866.222.920.817.0
Greater Perth832.21,171.41,147.11,101.640.837.932.4
Rest of Western Australia221.5286.5281.9272.029.327.222.8
Total Western Australia1,053.71,457.91,429.01,373.638.435.630.4
Greater Hobart102.2125.2122.3116.622.519.614.1
Rest of Tasmania133.7145.9144.5141.19.18.15.5
Total Tasmania235.9271.1266.7257.614.913.19.2
Greater Darwin52.671.469.265.435.731.524.4
Rest of Northern Territory27.536.235.634.031.529.523.5
Total Northern Territory80.1107.6104.899.434.330.824.1
Total Australian Capital Territory176.9248.4245.9240.240.439.035.8
Total capital cities(a)6,555.39,318.59,165.38,878.642.239.835.4
Total rest of state/territory(b)3,438.64,615.84,539.44,386.834.232.027.6
Total Australia(b)9,993.913,934.413,704.613,265.339.437.132.7

a. Includes Australian Capital Territory.
b. Includes Other Territories.
 

What if...

The size and age/sex structure of Australia's future population will influence the number of future households, families and people in different living arrangements.

Previous sections of this publication apply three different assumptions about living arrangements to the medium series projection from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) to 2071. This section looks at the impact of using the high series or low series population projections as the future population of Australia.

Population projections, assumptions(a)
Population seriesAssumptions(a)Assumptions(a)Assumptions(a)Assumptions(a)Projected populationProjected population
Total fertility rate(c)Male life expectancy at birth(b)Female life expectancy at birth(b)Net overseas migration(d)at 20462046 average annual growth rate 
babies per womanyearsyearspersonsmillion%
High series1.7588.491.1275,00036.41.2
Medium series1.6083.986.8225,00033.90.8
Low series1.4583.986.8175,00031.90.6

a. For details on the specific assumptions see Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) – 2071.
b. Phased in by 2070-71.
c. Phased in by 2026-27.
d. Phased in by 2031-32.

Household projections

Using the medium series projection as the future population of Australia results in a projection of between 13.3 and 13.9 million households in Australia in 2046. This is an increase of between 3.3 and 3.9 million households.

If the high series projection was used as the future population, the number of households is projected to be 5% higher than using the medium series, increasing by between 4.0 and 4.7 million households to reach between 14.0 and 14.7 million households in 2046.

If the low series projection were used, the number is projected to be 3% to 4% lower than using the medium series, increasing by between 2.8 and 3.4 million households to reach between 12.8 and 13.4 million households.

  1. Uses series I household projection assumptions and high series population projection assumptions.
  2. Uses series II household projection assumptions and medium series population projection assumptions.
  3. Uses series III household projection assumptions and low series population projection assumptions.


The use of different population projection series (high, medium or low) has relatively little impact on the proportion of households in each household type. For example, family households are projected to make up 68% of all households for series II regardless of which population is used. The impact of the population projection series is mainly on the number of each type of household, rather than on the proportion relative to the population.

Projected households, selected projection series combination
  High series(a)Medium series(a)Low series(a)
  '000'000'000
ESTIMATED HOUSEHOLDS – 2021 
Households    
 Family6,950.76,950.76,950.7
 Group405.7405.7405.7
 Lone person2,637.52,637.52,637.5
 Total9,993.99,993.99,993.9
PROJECTED HOUSEHOLDS – 2046 
Series I(b)    
 Family9,943.59,465.69,106.6
 Group536.8506.4479.5
 Lone person4,185.23,962.43,845.8
 Total14,665.513,934.413,431.9
Series II(b)    
 Family9,840.59,367.59,018.8
 Group575.5543.7515.6
 Lone person4,005.23,793.53,683.0
 Total14,421.213,704.613,217.4
Series III(b)    
 Family9,688.29,221.18,888.1
 Group643.0608.5578.2
 Lone person3,624.93,435.83,337.2
 Total13,956.213,265.312,803.5

a. High, medium and low series refer to three series of population projections from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) – 2071.
b. Series I, II and III refer to assumptions made about future living arrangements of the population of Australia. See the page 'Assumptions' for more detail.
 

Family projections

Using the medium series projection as the future population, the number of families in Australia is projected to reach between 9.5 and 9.7 million in 2046.

If the high series population is used instead of the medium series, higher numbers of families are projected (between 10.0 and 10.2 million in 2046), while if the low series is used, fewer families are projected (between 9.1 and 9.4 million).

  1. Uses series I household projection assumptions and high series population projection assumptions.
  2. Uses series II household projection assumptions and medium series population projection assumptions.
  3. Uses series III household projection assumptions and low series population projection assumptions.


As with household projections, the use of different population projection series (high, medium or low) has relatively little impact on the proportion of families in each family type. For example, couple families with children is projected to make up 42% of all families for series II regardless of which population is used. The impact of the population projection series is mainly on the number of each type of family, rather than on the proportion relative to the population.

Projected number of families, selected projection series combination
   High series(a)Medium series(a)Low series(a)
   '000'000'000
ESTIMATED FAMILIES – 2021
Families     
 Couples families with children3,117.6 3,117.6 3,117.6 
 Couple families without children2,763.7 2,763.7 2,763.7 
 One parent families   
  Male parent225.2 225.2 225.2 
  Female parent924.9 924.9 924.9 
 Other families118.7 118.7 118.7 
 Total7,150.1 7,150.1 7,150.1 
PROJECTED FAMILIES – 2046
Series I(b)     
 Couples families with children4,270.04,062.53,883.9
 Couple families without children4,115.63,925.93,802.7
 One parent families   
  Male parent330.9315.1304.6
  Female parent1,344.51,275.71,227.2
 Other families167.5157.4149.3
 Total 10,228.49,736.69,367.7
Series II(b)     
 Couples families with children4,285.34,080.83,906.3
 Couple families without children3,989.63,799.23,678.7
 One parent families   
  Male parent356.3339.5328.6
  Female parent1,332.21,266.21,221.3
 Other families159.2150.2142.7
 Total 10,122.69,635.99,277.7
Series III(b)     
 Couples families with children4,270.94,072.33,905.4
 Couple families without children3,795.03,602.93,487.0
 One parent families   
  Male parent400.1381.6369.9
  Female parent1,354.91,291.01,249.6
 Other families145.5137.9131.6
 Total 9,966.49,485.79,143.5

a. High, medium and low series refer to three series of population projections from Population Projections, Australia, 2022 (base) – 2071.
b. Series I, II and III refer to assumptions made about future living arrangements of the population of Australia. See Assumptions for more detail.
 

Living arrangement projections

The different age structures of the hign, medium and low series result in differences in the proportion of the projected population in each type of living arrangement.

Projected living arrangement proportions, selected population projection series (series II)
 2021204620462046
Living arrangement type High seriesMedium seriesLow series
 %%%%
Partner in couple family with children24.323.524.124.5
Child in a couple family23.422.120.919.5
Partner in couple family without children21.521.922.423.1
Lone parent4.54.64.74.9
Child in lone parent family6.96.66.46.1
Group household member3.63.73.83.8
Lone person10.311.011.211.6
Usual resident of a non-private dwelling1.82.32.22.3
Other3.84.24.34.3

Data downloads

Living arrangement propensities, Australia

Previous catalogue number

This release previously used catalogue number 3236.0.
 

Back to top of the page