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MAT 03 – Factors of Population Change

You can download this activity, the teacher solutions and the assessment rubric as a rich text file (RTF) at the bottom of the page.


    Subject Area

    Mathematics



    Overview

    In this activity, students consider the components of population change. Students calculate natural increase and net overseas migration figures and the contribution each makes to Australia's population growth.


    Requirements
    • Access to CAS calculators or Excel
    • Copy of student worksheet


    Instructions
Factors of Population Change

    Overview - Components of Population Change
    The growth of Australia's population has two components: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net overseas migration (the difference between the number of incoming travellers and the number of outgoing travellers).
    This activity involves looking at the contribution of each of these components in Australia’s population growth for the period 2006 - 2010.


    Task One: Births and Deaths

    Look at the Population Change Summary, for Australia below.

    Year
    Components of population change
    Births ’000
    Deaths ’000
    2006
    268.5
    134.5
    2007
    285.3
    139.8
    2008
    294.1
    142.5
    2009
    295.3
    141.6
    2010
    289.5
    143.4
    Table 1A: Population Change Summary, Australia

    (cat. no. 3101.0 Australian Demographic Statistics, Sept 2011, Publication PDF, Table 1)

    1. Use the births and deaths data in figure 1 to create a side by side bar graph comparing births and deaths for each year from 2006-2010. Choose your scale and label your graph carefully.


    2. Births
    a) Based on the data contained in table 1 and your graph, what trends or patterns do you observe in the number of births from 2006 - 2010.

    b) Identify when the smallest and largest increases or decreases and the size of these movements.

    c) Can you suggest possible reasons for these trends (or patterns)?


    3. Deaths

    a) Based on the data contained in table 1 and your graph, what trends or patterns do you observe in the number of deaths from 2006 - 2010.

    b) Identify when the smallest and largest increases or decreases and the size of these movements.

    c) Can you suggest possible reasons for any trends (or patterns)?


    Task Two: Natural Population Increase (Births – Deaths)

    4. a) Complete column 4 ‘Natural increase ‘000 in table 1B by subtracting the number of deaths from the number of births.

    Year
    Components of population change
    Births ’000
    Deaths ’000
    Natural Increase ‘000
    2006
    268.5
    134.5
    2007
    285.3
    139.8
    2008
    294.1
    142.5
    2009
    295.3
    141.6
    2010
    289.5
    143.4
    Table 1B: Population Change Summary, Australia


    b) Show this increase in a line graph.


    c) What trends or patterns can you observe?


    d) In which year was the rate of increase greatest? In which year was the rate of increase the smallest? Use your observations to list some possible implications of any trends (or patterns) you notice in the natural population increase over this time.



    Task Three: Total Population Growth (NI + NOM)

    5. The table below includes migration figures for 2006 – 2010. Starting with the figures for 2006, show:

    a) the estimated population for all years by factoring in births, deaths and migration (column 6)

    b) the increase in population each year in ‘000s (column 7) and,

    c) the % increase each year (column 8)

    Year Components of population changePopulationNote: population estimates and their
    components have sometimes been rounded.
    Rounded figures and unrounded figures
    should not be assumed to be accurate to
    the last digit shown. Where figures have been
    rounded, discrepancies may occur between
    sums of component items and totals.
    Births

    ’000
    Deaths

    ’000
    Natural increase

    (NI) ’000

    Net overseas

    migration (NOM) ’000

    At end of period
    ’000
    Increase

    ’000
    Increase

    %
    2006
    268.5
    134.5
    134.0
    182.2
    20,873.7
    329.6
    1.60
    2007
    285.3
    139.8
    145.5
    244.1
    2008
    294.1
    142.5
    151.6
    315.7
    2009
    295.3
    141.6
    153.7
    246.9
    2010
    289.5
    143.4
    146.0
    168.8
    Table 2: PERCENTAGE Population Change


    6. Use a line graph to show how the population has changed over this period. Comment on what is shown.


    7. Use a line graph to show how the net overseas migration has changed during this period. Comment on any trends.

    8. In 2010 the contribution to population increase was higher for net overseas migration (54%) than for natural increase (46%). Complete the table below to see if the same applied for the years 2006 – 2010.


    Components of population changePopulation
    Year Natural increaseNet overseas migration
    (NOM)
    At end of periodIncreasecontribution of natural increase to overall increasecontribution of net annual migration to overall increase
    ’000
    ’000
    ’000
    ’000
    %
    %
    2006
    134
    182.2
    20,873.70
    329.60
    2007
    145.5
    244.1
    21,263.30
    389.60
    2008
    151.6
    315.7
    21,730.60
    467.30
    2009
    153.7
    246.9
    22,131.20
    400.60
    2010
    146
    168.8
    22,446.00
    314.90
    46.36%
    53.60%
    Table 3: Contribution to Population Change

    9. In small groups of 3–4, discuss why it might be important for the Australian Government to encourage migrants to come to Australia. Write your answers below.



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