Australian Bureau of Statistics

Rate the ABS website
ABS Home > Statistics > By Release Date
ABS @ Facebook ABS @ Twitter ABS RSS ABS Email notification service
5302.0 - Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia, Sep 2012 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 04/12/2012   
   Page tools: Print Print Page Print all pages in this productPrint All RSS Feed RSS Bookmark and Share Search this Product

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE OF PAYMENTS


CURRENT ACCOUNT

In original current price terms, the September quarter 2012 current account deficit was $15,919m, a rise of $7,372m (86%) on the June quarter 2012 deficit.

Current account balances, in seasonally adjusted and trend terms at current prices, are shown in the following table.

BALANCE ON CURRENT ACCOUNT IN CURRENT PRICES - September Quarter 2012

Change in:
Current prices
Current prices
Current prices
$m
$m
%

Seasonally Adjusted

Balance on current account
-14 900
-2 531
-20.5
Balance on goods and services
-4 645
-2 531
-119.7
Net goods
-1 813
-2 776
. .
Net services
-2 832
245
8.0
Net primary income
-10 023
34
0.3
Net secondary income
-231
-33
-16.7

Trend

Balance on current account
-14 466
-524
-3.8
Balance on goods and services
-4 335
-1 049
-31.9
Net goods
-1 392
-880
-171.9
Net services
-2 943
-169
-6.1
Net primary income
-9 922
484
4.7
Net secondary income
-209
41
16.4

. . not applicable



VOLUMES AND PRICES

Goods and Services

In seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,454m, a rise of $490m (51%) on the June quarter 2012 surplus of $964m.

The net surplus on goods rose $583m (13%) on the June quarter 2012 surplus of $4,376m. Goods credits rose $485m (1%) and goods debits fell $98m. The net deficit on services rose $92m (3%) on the June quarter 2012 deficit of $3,412m.

The increase in the balance on goods and services surplus, in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, is expected to contribute 0.1 percentage points to growth in the September quarter 2012 volume measure of GDP, assuming no significant revision to the GDP chain volume estimate for the June quarter 2012.

GOODS AND SERVICES, CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES (a)
Graph: GOODS AND SERVICES, CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES (a)



Terms of Trade and Implicit Price Deflator

Australia's seasonally adjusted terms of trade on net goods and services fell 4.0% to 92.4 with a decrease of 5.9% in the implicit price deflator (IPD) for goods and services credits and a decrease of 2.0% in the IPD for goods and services debits.

In trend terms, the terms of trade for net goods and services fell 1.4% to 93.4.

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR AND TERMS OF TRADE (a)
Graph: IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR AND TERMS OF TRADE (a)



Goods

The trend estimate of net goods at current prices was a deficit of $1,392m, a rise of $880m (172%) on the June quarter 2012 deficit of $512m.

In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, net goods was a deficit of $1,813m, a turnaround of $2,776m on the June quarter 2012 surplus of $963m.

GOODS, Price and volume analysis: Seasonally Adjusted - September Quarter 2012

Change in:
Current prices
Current prices
Chain volume measures(a)
Implicit price deflators(a)
$m
%
%
%

Exports
-4 279
-6.6
0.7
-7.2
Rural goods
-134
-1.5
2.4
-3.8
Non-rural goods
-3 818
-7.4
0.9
-8.2
Net exports of goods under merchanting
17
58.6
84.4
-13.7
Non-monetary gold
-344
-7.7
-7.0
-0.8
Imports
-1 503
-2.3
-0.2
-2.2
Consumption goods
-167
-1.0
0.2
-1.2
Capital goods
-1 303
-7.2
-6.6
-0.6
Intermediate and other merchandise goods
-206
-0.7
3.7
-4.3
Non-monetary gold
173
12.0
12.3
-0.3

(a) Reference year 2010-11



Services

SERVICES, Price and volume analysis: Seasonally Adjusted - September Quarter 2012

Change in:
Current prices
Current prices
Chain volume measures(a)
Implicit price deflators(a)
$m
%
%
%

Exports
232
1.8
0.9
0.9
Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others
-4
-100.0
-100.0
. .
Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.
1
7.1
-
1.1
Transport
19
1.2
-0.4
1.6
Travel
187
2.4
1.8
0.6
Other services
29
0.9
-0.3
1.2
Imports
-13
-0.1
1.3
-1.4
Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others
-
-
-
-
Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.
30
27.8
31.1
-2.6
Transport
-124
-3.0
-4.9
2.0
Travel
-227
-3.4
-0.9
-2.5
Other services
309
6.5
9.4
-2.6

. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Reference year 2010-11



GOODS CREDITS

The trend estimate of goods credits at current prices fell $972m (2%) to $61,955m in the September quarter 2012.

In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, goods credits fell $4,279m (7%) to $60,915m, with volumes up 1% and prices down 7%.


Rural Goods

Exports of rural goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $134m (2%) to $8,717m, with volumes up 2% and prices down 4%. The main component contributing to the fall was other rural, down $190m (5%), with volumes up 1% and prices down 6%.

Partly offsetting this fall was the cereal grains and cereal preparations component, up $102m (4%), with volumes up 1% and prices up 3%.


Non-rural Goods

Exports of non-rural goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $3,818m (7%) to $48,056m, with volumes up 1% and prices down 8%. The main components contributing to the fall were:
  • metal ores and minerals, down $3,223m (15%), with prices down 15%
  • coal, coke and briquettes, down $854m (8%), with volumes down 2% and prices down 7%.

Partly offsetting these falls was the other mineral fuels component, up $845m (13%), with volumes up 16% and prices down 3%.

SELECTED MAJOR COMMODITIES, CURRENT PRICES(a)
Graph: SELECTED MAJOR COMMODITIES, CURRENT PRICES(a)



Net Exports of Goods Under Merchanting

Net exports of goods under merchanting, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $17m (59%), with volumes up 84% and prices down 14%.


Non-monetary Gold

Non-monetary gold, in original and seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $344m (8%), with volumes down 7% and prices down 1%.


GOODS DEBITS

The trend estimate of goods debits at current prices fell $91m to $63,347m in the September quarter 2012.

In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, goods debits fell $1,503m (2%) to $62,728m, with prices down 2%.


Consumption Goods

Imports of consumption goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $167m (1%) to $16,771m with prices down 1%. The main component contributing to the fall was non-industrial transport equipment, down $212m (5%), with volumes down 5%.


Capital Goods

Imports of capital goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $1,303m (7%) to $16,904m with volumes down 7% and prices down 1%. The main components contributing to the fall were:
  • capital goods n.e.s., down $837m (20%), with volumes down 21% and prices up 2%
  • ADP equipment, down $231m (11%), with volumes down 8% and prices down 3%
  • machinery and industrial equipment, down $226m (4%), with volumes down 2% and prices down 2%.


Intermediate and Other Merchandise Goods

Imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $206m (1%) to $27,437m, with volumes up 4% and prices down 4%. The main component contributing to the fall was parts for transport equipment, down $196m (7%), with volumes down 6% and prices down 1%.


Non-monetary Gold

Imports of non-monetary gold, in original and seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $173m (12%) to $1,616m, with volumes up 12%.


SERVICES

The trend estimate of net services at current prices was a deficit of $2,943m, a rise of $169m (6%) on the June quarter 2012 deficit of $2,774m.

In seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, net services was a deficit of $2,832m, a fall of $245m (8%) on the June quarter 2012 deficit of $3,077m.


Services Credits

Services credits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose $232m (2%) to $12,937m, with volumes up 1% and prices up 1%. The main component contributing to the rise was travel, up $187m (2%), with volumes up 2% and prices up 1%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service credits rose $195m (2%) to $8,577m.


Services Debits

Services debits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, fell $13m to $15,769m, with volumes up 1% and prices down 1%. The main components contributing to the fall were:
  • travel, down $227m (3%), with volumes down 1% and prices down 3%
  • transport, down $124m (3%), with volumes down 5% and prices up 2%.

Partly offsetting these falls was the other services component, up $309m (6%), with volumes up 9% and prices down 3%.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related service debits fell $283m (3%) to $8,108m.


PRIMARY INCOME

The trend estimate of the net primary income deficit at current prices fell $484m (5%) in the September quarter 2012 to $9,922m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the net primary income deficit fell $34m in the September quarter 2012 to $10,023m.

NET PRIMARY INCOME
Graph: NET PRIMARY INCOME



Primary Income Credits

Primary income credits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose by $94m (1%) to $9,484m. The main component contributing to the rise was direct investment assets, income on equity and investment fund shares, up $191m (5%).

Partly offsetting this rise was a $68m (14%) fall in other investments assets.


Primary Income Debits

Primary income debits, in seasonally adjusted terms at current prices, rose by $60m to $19,507m. The main components contributing to the rise were:
  • direct investment liabilities, income on equity and investment fund shares, up $518m (8%)
  • direct investment liabilities, interest, up $73m (6%).

Partly offsetting these rises was a $542m (9%) fall in portfolio investment assets, interest.


SECONDARY INCOME

The trend estimate of the net secondary income deficit at current prices, fell $41m (16%) to $209m in the September quarter 2012.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the net secondary income deficit at current prices, rose $33m (17%) to $231m in the September quarter 2012.


FINANCIAL ACCOUNT

The balance on financial account, in original terms, recorded a net inflow of $16.4b, with a net inflow of $8.8b of equity and a net inflow of $7.6b of debt.

The financial account surplus increased $7.5b, from $8.9b in June quarter 2012 to $16.4b in September quarter 2012.

Direct investment recorded a net inflow of $8.0b in September quarter 2012, a decrease of $3.2b from the net inflow of $11.2b in June quarter 2012, where:
  • direct investment assets recorded an outflow of $4.5b, a turnaround of $5.5b from the inflow of $1.0b in June quarter 2012
  • direct investment liabilities recorded an inflow of $12.5b, an increase of $2.4b on the inflow of $10.2 in June quarter 2012.

Portfolio investment recorded a net inflow of $0.7b, a turnaround of $10.8b from the net outflow of $10.1b in June quarter 2012, where:
  • equity and investment fund shares recorded a net inflow of $4.8b
  • debt securities recorded a net outflow of $4.2b.

Financial derivatives recorded a net inflow of $2.6b, a turnaround of $5.4b from the net outflow of $2.9b in June quarter 2012.

Other investment recorded a net inflow of $2.7b, a decrease of $5.2b from the net intflow of $7.9b in June quarter 2012.

Reserve assets recorded a net inflow of $2.4b, a decrease of $0.4b from the net inflow of $2.8b in June quarter 2012.


INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION


ANALYSIS

Australia's net international investment position at 30 September 2012 was a net foreign liability of $869.6b, up $8.7b on the 30 June 2012 position of $860.9b.

The changes contributing to this result are shown in the following table.

INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION, Summary - September Quarter 2012

Net international investment position
Net foreign equity
Net foreign debt
$m
$m
$m

Position at beginning of period
860 929
109 959
750 969
Changes in position reflecting
Transactions
16 407
8 773
7 634
Price changes
-882
3 353
-4 235
Exchange rate changes
-5 972
413
-6 385
Other adjustments
-851
-1 521
671
Total changes
8 703
11 019
-2 315
Position at end of period
869 632
120 977
748 654




SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION


CONDITIONS

The conditions in the global economy showed moderate increases for most countries in the September quarter 2012. According to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), preliminary real GDP estimates in seasonally adjusted terms showed movement in quarterly growth for: China (2.2%), UK (1.0%), USA (0.5%) and Germany (0.2%).

Australia's international investment activities during the quarter were as follows:
  • foreign asset transactions were -$2.2b in September quarter 2012 compared to -$0.1b in June quarter 2012
  • foreign liability transactions were $18.6b in September quarter 2012 compared to $9.0b in June quarter 2012.

The Australian share market, as measured by the MSCI global index, increased by 7.2% in September quarter 2012 following a decrease of 5.0% in June quarter 2012. There were increases in all major markets: Germany 12.4%, Hong Kong 11.7%, Europe (excluding UK) 9.4%, New Zealand 9.1%, Switzerland 7.0%, Canada 6.0%, Singapore 5.9%, USA 5.8%, France 5.3% and United Kingdom 2.9%. A market price change of $18.0b was recorded for foreign equity liabilities and -$14.6b for foreign equity assets during September quarter 2012.

According to Bloomberg, the corporate benchmark composite yield decreased in Australia from 5.17% to 4.58%, in UK from 4.34% to 3.66%, in USA from 3.37% to 2.87%, in Germany from 3.29% to 2.47% and Japan from 0.70% to 0.64%. Long term government bond yields decreased in the major markets in September quarter 2012. The 10 year government bond yields decreased in the UK from 1.75% to 1.72%, in the USA from 1.67% to 1.65%, in Germany from 1.60% to 1.41% and in Japan from 0.84% to 0.78%. In Australia, the rates increased from 2.99% to 3.09%. This is reflected in the market price changes for both portfolio debt securities liabilities of -$1.3b and assets of -$0.5b in September quarter 2012.

The Australian dollar appreciated against some major currencies and fell against others in September quarter 2012. It increased 2.7% against US dollar, 2.7% against Hong Kong dollar, 1.6% against Chinese renminbi, 0.7% against Swiss franc, 0.3% against Danish kronor and 0.2% against Japanese yen. The Australian dollar fell 4.1% against Indian rupee, 4.0% against UK pound sterling, 3.9% against Swedish krona, 2.4% against Norwegian kroner, 2.0% against Canadian dollar and 1.0% against Singaporean dollar. The Trade Weighted Index (TWI) recorded an increase of 0.5%. This is reflected in the exchange rate changes for foreign liabilities of -$7.5b and foreign assets of $1.5b in September quarter 2012.


RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IPD, EPI AND IPI(footnote 1)

In original terms, the IPD for total goods credits fell 6.9% and the chain Laspeyres price index for goods exports fell 7.1%. The export price index (EPI) fell 6.4% during the September quarter 2012.

In original terms, the IPD for total goods debits fell 2.0% and the chain Laspeyres price index for goods imports fell 2.5%. The import price index (IPI) fell 2.4% during the September quarter 2012.

Differences between the IPD and International Trade Price Indexes can arise due to a number of methodological factors including differences in pricing points, timing, coverage and weights. In the September quarter 2012, differences between the IPD and EPI were mainly due to the 'wool and sheepskins', 'meat and meat preparations' and 'other mineral fuels' components.

GOODS AND SERVICES, Price comparison - September Quarter 2012

Changes in
Seasonally adjusted
Original
Implicit price deflators(a)
Implicit price deflators(a)
International Trade price indexes(b)
Chain Laspeyres price indexes(a)
%
%
%
%

Exports
Goods
-7.2
-6.9
-6.4
-7.1
Services
0.9
0.8
na
0.9
Imports
Goods
-2.2
-2.0
-2.4
-2.5
Services
-1.4
-1.4
na
-1.3

na not available
(a) Reference year 2010-11
(b) Source: International Trade Price Indexes, Australia (cat. no. 6457.0)

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE PRICE INDEXES
Graph: IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATORS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE PRICE INDEXES



Commodity Price Indexes

The RBA Commodity Price Index(footnote 2) (average monthly index) for rural commodities increased 2.5% between the June quarter 2012 and September quarter 2012 while the EPI for rural goods total decreased 2.2%.

The RBA Commodity Price Index for non-rural commodities decreased 8.0% while the EPI for non-rural goods total (excluding non-monetary gold) decreased 7.6%.

Differences between the RBA Commodity Price Index and ABS price measures are largely a consequence of methodological differences used in the construction of the respective indexes, including coverage of included commodities and timing of source data.

1 In this commentary movements in indexes are based on data to four decimal places. <back
2 For RBA Commodity Price Index methodology, see paragraph 23 of the Explanatory Notes. <back

Bookmark and Share. Opens in a new window

Commonwealth of Australia 2014

Unless otherwise noted, content on this website is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 Australia Licence together with any terms, conditions and exclusions as set out in the website Copyright notice. For permission to do anything beyond the scope of this licence and copyright terms contact us.