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3401.0 - Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, Jun 2013 Quality Declaration 
Previous ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/08/2013   
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SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during June 2013 (526,300 movements) increased 0.1% when compared with May 2013 (525,700 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 3.9% higher than in June 2012.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia


The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during June 2013. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for June 2012 and June 2013 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for China (21.3%) followed by India (10.4%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Japan (12.4%), followed by New Zealand (2.8%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - June 2013

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
May 13 to Jun 13
Jun 12 to Jun 13
Source countries(a)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

New Zealand
96.8
96.1
92.2
-1.5
-2.8
Singapore
31.0
33.4
41.7
1.7
6.6
UK, CIs & IOM(b)
48.0
81.4
40.5
-0.3
-1.2
China
64.4
63.4
38.9
1.9
21.3
United States of America
40.0
39.0
38.5
-1.4
2.6
Malaysia
21.9
21.4
18.0
0.7
-0.2
Japan
26.0
25.9
15.9
-1.1
-12.4
South Korea
16.6
17.2
14.4
1.3
5.2
India
13.6
14.2
14.3
0.2
10.4
Indonesia
11.9
12.6
14.1
1.6
1.6

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:
      1 The July 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.4% higher than June 2013.
      2 The July 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.4% lower than June 2013.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.4% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during June 2013 (730,600 movements) increased 0.9% when compared with May 2013 (724,000 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 7.1% higher than in June 2012.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia
Graph: SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia


The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in June 2013. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for June 2012 and June 2013 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Singapore (15.0%), followed by the United States of America (14.1%). No percentage decreases were recorded.

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - June 2013

Trend
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
May 13 to Jun 13
Jun 12 to Jun 13
Source countries(a)(b)
'000
'000
'000
Trend % change
Trend % change

United States of America
80.5
82.4
97.3
1.7
14.1
Indonesia
77.8
76.9
87.4
0.7
2.9
New Zealand
100.2
103.0
82.3
1.2
10.5
UK, CIs & IOM
44.3
44.7
76.2
1.0
12.6
Thailand
53.5
54.6
56.0
0.9
0.7
Fiji
30.3
29.0
32.8
3.7
9.0
China
33.4
32.7
29.5
-0.6
5.3
Singapore
28.9
27.9
28.3
0.2
15.0
Italy
14.3
14.6
28.0
4.4
11.7
France
12.1
12.7
25.1
1.4
4.8

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.



'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:
      1 The July 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than June 2013.
      2 The July 2013 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than June 2013.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia
Graph: WHAT IF...?  REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia


The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 13,580 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during June 2013, a increase of 0.9% compared with June 2012 (13,460 movements). People born in India accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (13.4%), followed by people born in China (13.0%), New Zealand (11.7%) and the UK, CIs and IOM (6.1%).

There were 6,470 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during June 2013, which increased 10.2% when compared with June 2012 (5,870 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, out of the 72,100 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 14,370 spent 12 months or more overseas.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.


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