3250.0 - Information Paper: Ensuring the Quality of Rebased Population Estimates, June 2011  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 05/07/2012  First Issue
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PRELIMINARY ERP BY STATE AND TERRITORY – INTERCENSAL ERROR

Intercensal error is the difference between rebased and the unrebased ERP as at 30 June of a Census year. It is calculated by subtracting the newly rebased ERP as at 30 June from the ERP as at 30 June based on the previous Census which has been updated using the components of population change.

For the 2006–2011 intercensal period, the preliminary intercensal error is 294,000. Unlike previous intercensal errors, around two thirds of the discrepancy can be attributed to the methodological and technological improvements made to the 2011 Post Enumeration Survey by the introduction of Automated Data Linking (ADL).

Over the history of intercensal error back to the 1981–1986 period, the unrebased ERP has been an overestimate three times and also an underestimate three times.

Table 4: Historical intercensal error (a) : 5 yearly

1981–1986
1986–1991
1991–1996
1996–2001
2001–2006
2006–2011
PERSONS ('000)
NSW
11.9
2.4
–15.8
–27.0
10.5
90.7
Vic
3.9
7.0
–20.9
35.6
–36.6
87.0
Qld
–32.0
11.1
15.9
5.8
–38.1
106.2
SA
–9.4
10.4
4.5
–9.6
–13.5
18.1
WA
–18.4
29.9
–3.3
11.5
–8.2
–2.9
Tas
0.4
–6.3
–1.1
–1.8
–1.0
–0.7
NT
–6.3
–6.7
–5.2
–0.2
–4.0
–1.0
ACT
5.5
4.2
–1.2
–4.3
–5.4
–2.1
Australia
–44.4
51.9
–27.5
10.6
–96.0
294.4
PER CENT OF POPULATION AT 30 JUNE OF END YEAR
NSW
0.22
0.04
–0.25
–0.41
0.15
1.26
Vic
0.09
0.16
–0.46
0.74
–0.71
1.57
Qld
–1.22
0.34
0.48
0.16
–0.93
2.37
SA
–0.68
0.72
0.31
–0.63
–0.86
1.10
WA
–1.26
1.83
–0.19
0.60
–0.40
–0.12
Tas
0.09
–1.35
–0.23
–0.39
–0.20
–0.13
NT
–4.08
–4.05
–2.86
–0.11
–1.89
–0.42
ACT
2.12
1.45
–0.39
–1.36
–1.62
–0.58
Australia
–0.28
0.30
–0.15
0.05
–0.46
1.32
(a) In this table, negative numbers mean that the unrebased ERP underestimated the rebased ERP and positive means that the unrebased ERP was an overestimate.



For more details on the intercensal error, the introduction of ADL and further analysis, please refer to the Technical Note on page 66 of Australian Demographic Statistics, Dec 2011 (cat. no. 3101.0).